Bitcoin Daily 21/03/2020 - Keeping a Neutral Bias
Right now, Bitcoin sits right between 2 extremely important levels:
Under $6400, which is the lowest point it reached during the 2019 run.
Above $5800-$6000, which is, historically, an important liquidity area which is now acting as a support.
Price has been pretty volatile the last fe days, with long wicks both up and down, signaling the current uncertainty we're dealing with accross the board.
Closing above $6400 would put us in the lower part of the trading range that we were in before collapsing. This would put us, in my opinion, back in bull terrotory - the current market structure would shift.
I don't think we can be bullish just yet - even though we pumped very significantly from the recent lows, we still can't manage to close above this key price level, and there are signs that there's strong supply above it.
Closing under the cluster between $5800-$6000 would make me bearish again - it's a key support, and, historically, every time we closed the daily under it the price broke down very sharply.
No reason to be bearish yet either, as we're, so far, managing to keep above this key support area and there're signs of strong demand as well.
I'm out of all trades - no reason for me to jump in any position while we're in this 'standoff' situation.
Personally, I'm leaning more towards the bearish case, especially considering the current macro situation - I don't think Bitcoin is already being taken seriously as a SoV, so I don't buy into this narrative (yet).
In my opinion, Bitcoin is still being treated by most investors as a high risk asset - and the fact that it still haven't decoupled from all shitcoins out there shows it.
As financial markets continue to get punished (and I think that's what will continue to happen for the foreseeable future), demand for liquidity (USD) will continue to grow, and most assets, including crypto, will continue to drop in price.
Under $6400, which is the lowest point it reached during the 2019 run.
Above $5800-$6000, which is, historically, an important liquidity area which is now acting as a support.
Price has been pretty volatile the last fe days, with long wicks both up and down, signaling the current uncertainty we're dealing with accross the board.
Closing above $6400 would put us in the lower part of the trading range that we were in before collapsing. This would put us, in my opinion, back in bull terrotory - the current market structure would shift.
I don't think we can be bullish just yet - even though we pumped very significantly from the recent lows, we still can't manage to close above this key price level, and there are signs that there's strong supply above it.
Closing under the cluster between $5800-$6000 would make me bearish again - it's a key support, and, historically, every time we closed the daily under it the price broke down very sharply.
No reason to be bearish yet either, as we're, so far, managing to keep above this key support area and there're signs of strong demand as well.
I'm out of all trades - no reason for me to jump in any position while we're in this 'standoff' situation.
Personally, I'm leaning more towards the bearish case, especially considering the current macro situation - I don't think Bitcoin is already being taken seriously as a SoV, so I don't buy into this narrative (yet).
In my opinion, Bitcoin is still being treated by most investors as a high risk asset - and the fact that it still haven't decoupled from all shitcoins out there shows it.
As financial markets continue to get punished (and I think that's what will continue to happen for the foreseeable future), demand for liquidity (USD) will continue to grow, and most assets, including crypto, will continue to drop in price.
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