BTC Levels
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Important levels all marked.
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This doesn't look like it will hold, but I'm long from 7790 just in case. SL in profit.Monthly resistance ahead, fail and we should re-test lows, keep an eye on volume, needs to increase if we are going to breakout.
You can imagine TP levels just looking at the chart.
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Long and strong +10% so far from entry. Would like to look for adds around 8150-8200. SL in profit, risk free trade.ملاحظة
Got those HUGE adds finally, AVG now is below SL, with profits locked in. Still a risk free trade. Looking forward to BTC bouncing, not ruling out getting stopped out. Will look for a new setup for longs if we break below 8150.ملاحظة
Stopped out in profit on this last drop to 8076. Looking forward to testing lows again, would look for longs around 7870-8000, there's an easy SL on this setup, around 7853.If that doesn't hold, I'd be looking at 7300 to hold, if not 6400-6800 is next range to keep an eye on.
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Intense week, tried longing 7800's a couple of times, sucessfully gaining a 1st PT on both trades, but eventually stopped out for a very small profit. Finally saw a breakdown to 7300's, currently long with avg 7462, might get some more fills in mid 7300's. The PA isn't giving a strong bullish feel, so chances are we will eventually be stopped out, and will have to look at next range 6400-6800's.
If we do get a bounce from current levels, I'd be looking for TP's around 7800's, 8200's & 8500's. Will re-evaluate if we get there.
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Well that was fast, filled rest of orders in mid 7300's avg down to 7396. SL in same spot around 7200's. Now it's all about patience, the buyback from 7300 has been nice so far.ملاحظة
All 3 TP's hit, still have around 30% of position open, moved SL to 1st TP level.The volume has been very nice, 1B+ on that last 4h candle up.
Would be nice to see a close above the monthly 8545 level, but I don't think that will happen anytime soon. Closing weekly above 8200 is mandatory for more upside imo. Otherwise we should go back to test the lows aroudn 7200's where I'd be carefully looking for longs again...
Break the lows and we will probably go test 6400's or even lower if that ends up failing.
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Well I think it's fair to say that BTC did more than even the most bullish of bulls expected...it's looking like a momentum shift for bulls. There was real fomo once we slammed above 8800...MANY people scared of being left behind. Weekly closed above 8200 and right below monthly resistance at 9567.Holding above 9k is a good sign, although there's still a full week to go, and we have monthly close on Friday. Monthly close above 9600 and we could be looking to re-test the 10600's, after that, main level to watch would be 11600, need to close weekly above it to look at higher levels.
Levels I'm looking at to add to longs: 9014, 8570, 8190, 7850. At this point some might seem unrealistic, imo 8200-8600 will be tested before continuation, but there's a chance 9k will hold...going back to 7800's or lower would erase a lot of current bullish momentum, although if those lows hold, it would confirm reversal of current downtrend.
If we managed to brak below 7200's, still would be looking at same spots...6400's or even 5800's
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Filled some longs around 9020, let's see if this holds, in any case 1 TP already hit, wouldn't lose much if sl gets hit, not moving it from it's original spot yet. Now that lower range has been tested, would be nice to see a push to test top of range around 9550, where we have a monthly resistance level.ملاحظة
07/11 - 9k held decently so far and we tested upper range 9600's where I took some profits off. Have been looking for a good spot to add to my 9020 position...barely missed my 9071 just a few minutes ago, buy back afterwards has been decent, although at this point I've moved my SL into profit and expecting to be stopped out soon. Not interested in buying 9k anymore...looking at 8800 for the next leg down, very tight sl in mid 87xx's. Rest of levels for buys (8570, 8190, 7850) are still valid and much stronger than this 8800 level, but it feels like the 8500's monthly support could be frontran.
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11/11 - SL's above 9k (in profit) and 8700's (small loss) triggered. We finally went to test the 8570 area, where I've just caught some new longs. SL is now in profit, we could dip to low 8500's.Need to hold above the monthly support if we want to see upside. Remember, play level by level, with proper risk management (<2%) there is no big loss if stopped out, and you can make it up easily with one decent trade that works out. If entries are proper, you'll even be stopped in profit usually.
Below we still ahve 8190's and 7850's...if lower it's around 7300's. Above immeadiate levels for tp's are 8700's (tagged) 8800's - 9k - 9200's - 9800's ...
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12/11 - Do you see how well strong levels play out? That was an almost perfect kiss of monthly support at 8545. Now let's see what it does.My initial long was avg 8638, took profits off at 8750's and 8866, had a partial 70% SL in profit just above entry just as I said, we could dip to 8500's again, and we did. Ended up with good profit from first long, and have relonged down to 8570's, with final avg of 8617. Have already taken 1st TP at 8710, SL still below entry, but have a partial SL tight and the rest below that monthly 8545.
We must hold this level above 8600's if we want some bullish continuation, first step would be to re-test the high 8800's (1tp there) and if broken up, previously mentioned levels for pt's are valid.
Below, 8200's level at this point seems like a weak one, so I'm not gonna be playing longs there...will look to long 7800's if we get there, 7400s is last stand if we drop that much...if broken you have the levels in previous comments.
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21/11 - It's been a while since last update, market has been slowly bleeding longs since we didn't hold 8600. The last 8617 long netted me 2 pt's (8710 & 8842) and later stopped out in profit basically.As said in previous update, below 8600, the only levels I was interested in longing were 7800's (stopped out for -0.7% loss due to slippage, should've been -0.5%) and 7400's (currently long with avg 7391). Already took 2 PT's at 7500 & 7600, for 40% of position. Moved SL to 7382, as if we don't hold this level this will drop hard. Not looking to add to position unless we start gaining some levels above.
At this stage, this could and should bounce, but that would only be an opportunity to add shorts (on ETHUSD to get paid funding every 8h). This 7400's is last stand for bulls, if broken, we could go visit 6300's, 5400's and would look for longs there. Not looking good for bulls boys.
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22/11 - Wake up to being stopped out after gaining 3rd TP at 7700. Right as I'm writing this, BTC is making new lows at 7000s, so looks like we're losing that weekly level and probably are going to visit 6300's with a pit stop at 6800's.
Personally I'm gonna wait to see how daily closes and probably even wait for weekly close to see if there's a higher low play to take. 5800-6200 is next area of interest for me.
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10/12 - Been waiting for something significant to happen since we broke down to 6500's, like actually getting a nice HL test of that level around 6600's...or break above 7800's...neither has happened, although the 7800's rejection makes it pretty clear we are going (at least) to test those lows, finally.There are several possible scenarios where to look for longs:
- Around 7130's (not taking this trade setup) with a SL somewhere in the 7090's - this could be an easy 100x long if entry is proper and SL is inside the range...
- Around 6880-6800's (6813 is a weekly level to keep in mind), this is quite a hard setup in terms of looking for a good SL spot, but could work out with low leverage and a SL below that weekly lvl...Might take this one but would be a small position.
- Best case scenario in my opinion, test the lows with long entry in the 6560-6700's with SL somewhere in the 6530's.
- Possible breakdown to properly test the monthly level at 6297, seeking entry around this level isn't easy because there's no easy SL imo, could go as low as 5800's where we have a weekly level, or even 5260's where we have another monthly level.
Knife catching this won't be easy, so keep in mind proper risk management (under 2% of your total capital risked per trade) and make sure your SL isn't in a liquidity area (under wicks or "supports")
Safest way to look for entry would be on a retest or HL after previously mentioned levels are tagged/tested. Which is why the 6600's long play (looking for a HL) would be the best case scenario/safest play in our current situation.
Still to early to talk about levels below 5200's, and would have to reclaim at least 7800's to talk about upside potential...although boss fight will be at the 9100's level (potentially setups for shorts around 9-9.6k)
Will update when something actually happens. Safe trading.
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9/12 - A lot of things happened since last update, but we're back to the same price range (7100's)All setups mentioned in previous comment could be considered profitable trades.
I didn't take the 7130's scenario (would've been a profitable trade as it wicked to 7400's after tagging the entry level, without SL triggering) It happened fast, but after rejecting 7400's it was even more clear we were gonna test lows again.
2nd scenario also held the 6813 weekly level for a short while, but I also didn't participate here.
Tried longing the previous lows expecting either SL to be triggered or a hold and a HL, long avg was 6564, SL was 6530. Took 1 PT off at 6666 for about 15% of the position to later be stopped out for a small loss. All in all, about 0.3% loss.
What happened next and what to expect further?
So, btc created a new low at 6410 holding above the 6380 low from May, in hindsight pretty obvious, but I was expecting it to drop lower, so didn't long there.
BTC went up with nice volume to test 7400's AGAIN, rejecting strong and closing daily below this weekly level. Will have to wait and see what this weekly will look like after close, anything above 6900's will give a bit more life to bulls (that would be the level to hold and look for longs).
BTC is still below a pretty heavy resistance, and as I said in previous comments 7800's is the next level to break and close above for more bullish upside, maybe bulls surprise everyone and manage to close weekly above it? Who knows...but it's highly unlikely at this point.
This rejection feels like it was a great push to fill shorts to continue lower, and anyone who got a short in the 7450's area is now with SL in profit. Unless we manage to creep higher and close weekly above 6900 my expectation for btc is to continue lower...be prepared to see some panic if we break below 6300.
Sitting on my hands right now, waiting for either a long around 6700-6800's or continuation lower where we'd be looking for longs in the 5200-5800's area.
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14/01/2020 - No trading done since last updates, holidays are there to enjoy the time with family and friends. Got one insignificant fill long at 6870 back in December, as most of my orders were laddered lower 6800's and 6700's...but since I never set any tp's it ended up being a nice gain, closed 70% at 8700 today, will close 50% of what is left if we reach 9100's.
In my last update I mentioned the importance of holding 6900's or we would've went lower, also the 7800 level importance for more upside, now you can see why these levels were important.
Also mentioned previously the importance of 8600's as a weekly level, and the major resistance at 9100's. We're here now, closing this week above 8600 will most likely take us to test higher.
Although we've got a pretty dense resistance above us, I don't recommend taking shorts until we're in the 9-9.5k area, there have been and will be some short term short opportunities though. Shorting ETH is always better for long term trades due to better funding. If you're looking to short BTC, look for a lower high trade, as of right now a failure to gain higher high (8860's SL) with easy SL will make it easy to define your risk.
We're still far away from "bull season" as that would start to show itself if we close at least one weekly above 11.6k.
Stay safe from fomo and remember that there will always be new opportunities to enter the market.
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19/01/2020 - Reached another PT on what was left of my long at 9120 last night, and we finally had the retrace everyone was either waiting for or fearing...there were a lot of breakout buyers last night after we breached 9k, most of them not understading they were buying into resistance. Bulls went full retard.Had you read my previous update you would've known not to long there but rather look for shorts or take profits on previous longs.
BTC retraced to test previous monthly resistance around 8500's and turned it into support, for now. As previously mentioned, holding and closing weekly above 8600's will probably take us to retest the 9300's to 9500's. A couple of weekly closing above 8600's would be even better for more upside.
Personally I'm not adding to longs at this level, would love to see 7200's +/- for longs. My btc short was also a bit higher, around 9300 and I'll stick to it, it's a small one. ETH short adds would be great to get around 190's.
Stay safe.
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01/02/2020 - It's been a lazy January, but we finally made it to the 9500's test of the monthly level at 9567.My short on btc was fully filled from 9300 to 9565...SL was set at 9615 and final avg is 9437, looking good so far but not out of risk yet as I haven't moved SL into profit or taken any PT's off...
ETH short adds around 190's didn't actually get there, but could still make a push for it in the next weeks depending on how BTC behaves. Those will probably be my last ETH short adds.
I'd say right now BTC is most likely to go test monthly support around 8600's again and if that doesn't hold we might finally go test that 7200's level where I'll be looking for some longs.
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02/02/2020 - BTC dumped overnight and hit 1 PT at 9150, still not moving SL. IF SL hits (9615), would mean a 0.4% loss which is insignificant.Fully filled on ETH short adds around 190's with final average being 221.85, not adding anymore to this short and SL is in profit. This short has been a hedge since June and as mentioned several times it's the best hedge for BTC as bitmex funding pays really well.
This should reject now and hopefully I can keep this ETH short open for the next year as well.
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03/02/2020 - Well BTC short got stopped out on that move last night to 9619, for a tinyt 0.4% loss. No big deal, ETH short is what I really care about as hedge. 9615 SL was a proper spot taking 9617 high from the 4th of November 2019, sometimes it's just how it goes, but anything above 9617 as SL would be placing it in liquidity zone and if it actually popped it would've had heavy slippage.
I might look for another short around 9500's with SL within range of 9621, see if this one plays out as a lower high.
Patience
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