BTC - the WILDEST THEORY YET - a Manipulated Bull Run???
تم تحديثه
Price Manipulation is NEVER Random.
Seen so many small/giant Head and Shoulder formations, I have lost count.
And this could be a new one about to happen, but on a super grand scale.
For those of you that are new... Head and Shoulders is exactly what it sounds like...
- A price 'peak' forming the head, with the left and right peaks called shoulders.
- Regular H&S is often a bearish play; it results in a reversal leading to big price drops
- Inverted Head and Shoulder patterns usually end with a reversal to a rise; BULLISH.
- These patterns can break, they are not fool proof
- If the pattern holds, you can use the left side of the pattern to forecast the right
- It is not perfect, but it does give you general direction
- You still need to do daily TA when using this pattern, it is never a perfect mirror
NEXT DISCUSSION
HOW manipulation would make this happen in the current market..
Seen so many small/giant Head and Shoulder formations, I have lost count.
And this could be a new one about to happen, but on a super grand scale.
For those of you that are new... Head and Shoulders is exactly what it sounds like...
- A price 'peak' forming the head, with the left and right peaks called shoulders.
- Regular H&S is often a bearish play; it results in a reversal leading to big price drops
- Inverted Head and Shoulder patterns usually end with a reversal to a rise; BULLISH.
- These patterns can break, they are not fool proof
- If the pattern holds, you can use the left side of the pattern to forecast the right
- It is not perfect, but it does give you general direction
- You still need to do daily TA when using this pattern, it is never a perfect mirror
NEXT DISCUSSION
HOW manipulation would make this happen in the current market..
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How does PRICE MANIPULATION exactly Work?For starters, let's clear up what it is NOT:
- it is not invisible puppet masters pulling strings every 'minute' of the day
- it is not sheer will; it is planned, but often executed when opportunity comes
- it is not just a bunch of whales, it is an organized group
- they do not have one plan, but many... and it's more of a play book
In this publication I was able to recognize the potential beginning pattern that COULD result in an inverted head and shoulders.
Questions to ask yourself..
- Inverted head and shoulders are considered natural TA patterns. If I was able to visualize this.. humble me.. why couldn't dozens of well paid experts see the potential pattern as well and then decide to HELP it along?
- Why couldn't an organized group of uber-wealthy investors ask 'member" whales to coordinate purchases or dumps... that nudge the shape of a desired pattern?
- Wouldn't other retails traders see the pattern and then support the pattern by merely believing this is how it will unfold?
- Couldn't wealthy manipulators bring product to the market AND time their announcements... to assist with affecting the mood of world buyers?
- Isn't it possible the manipulators KNOW the timing of when to make their plays because they can afford to hire the best market psychologists money can buy?
- Did you see the movie, the BIG SHORT? Because then you might understand why what I am suggesting is possible.
- Do you think it is probable people are being paid to make news that affects sentiment?
- Can you think of anything to add to this list?
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In my other IDEA posts, I stated we were going to have a small drop in price.In a conversation I was having with a friend in private message, I literally told him that any minute now we were going to see the next move downward.
That just happened, wasn't big.. but it's NOT done yet either.
How did I know?
On bitcointicker.co/mobile I was watching the 24 hr chart and saw we were in a very small triangle. that was near completion. The oeaks of the trend line were warped and that is also what I call a bent spine.. and not a healthy visual. (There is no TA that is called a bent spine)
If you go back to the top chart, press the PLAY button.
DO NOT compare the current price to the YELLOW LINE, instead, go back to the left side of the inverted head and shoulder and LOOK AT THE PATTERN.
Right.. it is starting to REPEAT. At least for now.
So what SHOULD happen is we drop a little more and stop.. level off and go back up.
Well in theory...
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It took longer than expected.. but that price drop hit. I got back from the gym and found ETHER bouncing off 460 and Bitcoins price stopping at just under 6500.The bounce and recovery is NOT convincing... it may fall further. But I doubt this a any kind of huge correction. Just a small one... for now.
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The fall has continued as expected. Bounced off ETHER at 480 and 6440 BitcoinI still expect more bearish pressure.
6300 is the next BIG support. It could stop before there, but that is the BIG support price for the Bulls.
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Sorry I meant 450 ETHERملاحظة
Price has risen a bit..If any of you were trading ETHER, I earlier mentioned that the price was expected to stop falling between 458 and 446.
The price stopped and bounced at 450. Then slowly went back up to 470 over a slow rise overnight.
THAT is where anyone who wanted a trade should have entered. Of course, I did NOT tell anyone to enter a trade during the target area, because unless I was a licensed financial advisor, it is illegal for me to do so.
I could have said.. I am entering a trade at this price or I just completed entering a trade and then it would be legal. However, I did NOT enter the trade.. mostly because it was late at night and I do NOT like using automatic orders to buy and sell without watching the completion. I have my reasons, but many people just place a limit order and a stop order and just trust their exchange.
If you return to the chart ON TOP, you will see a PLAY BUTTON on the far right. If you press this, you will see the price line move.
The price movement appears to closely fit within the yellow line movement, however the yellow line movement was just a feeble attempt by myself to re-draw/mirror the LEFT SIDE of the inverted H&S. If price continues to move in this way, you would be looking at the corresponding LEFT SIDE of the chart as if to predict future movement on the right side.
That is HOW you can use manipulation theory to SUPPLEMENT real TA.
I am still watching TA in other rooms and doing my own TA. However, if the forecast I see matches the WIld Chart, it just gives me MORE confidence of what the price should do in the next few hours and so forth.
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Latest price movement reportHow many of you have been opening the chart at the top of the page and PRESSING the PLAY button?
You will see that the price is still following the yellow prediction vector lines.. NOT EXACTLY.. because that WILL NEVER HAPPEN. but it is following all the same.
So this recent price dip at this moment, BITCOINS to 6540... is NOT a surprise.
Also, do NOT FULLY TRUST THIS CHART AS THE FINAL WORD ON PRICE.. you need to see TA for the 5 minute charts, which I do NOT provide.
I work on reporting that to you with other member TA because it is easier to get it from them then spend the hours creating it myself.
Think of me as a strategist. I know my talents and weaknesses.
Rule: get the TA from the people who do it best, then add your OWN forecast and TA and combine methods. This is how you develop.. YOUR OWN STYLE of making the right decisions.
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Sorry folksI have been quiet for a while.
again.. come back to this chart at the top and press the PLAY Button
spooky huh?
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Latest report...My favorite TA authors all seem convinced that we are heading for a rise in the very near term. Expected? 6700ish plus (or 480 ETH)
On the wild chart, that isn't exactly there.. so this may be a situation where the wild chart is a bit off course.
And it is entirely possible if the bulls take over.. then the chart will be wrong at the next play downward that is predicted by the yellow line.
The fact that this chart has been correct for 5 days makes it a miracle chart... and I have found that with WILD charts like these.. sometimes they get the big picture right, but some movements are off a bit.
It will be interesting how this chart looks when you hit the play button in another week, two weeks and finally at the end of July.
So far it is valid, but I wasn't expecting that.
What is to come?
On the chart, we are not far from one last dip downwards. On the current TA from my favorite authors, they seem to be saying no.
I will update later in the day if I see anything the goes off course with the chart. More or less, if the chart stays on course, then I really do NOT need to report much. because the chart says it all. This is about price.
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For anyone PRESSING THE PLAY BUTTON...do NOT use the yellow line as the exact guide path
What you are intended to do... is look at the LEFT SIDE of the chart.. the mirror of how I drew the RIGHT SIDE.. and look at the price dips and rises on that LEFT SIDE to predict a mirror of this on the LEFT SIDE.
So far, it is near spooky perfect.
It cannot be ABSOLUTE perfect because of many factors, moving positions of support and resistance, shifting MA, different volumes and a host of other factors.
The reason for the mirror then?
The movements are nudged by the manipulators.. and then the law of retracement.
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July 7 late morning updateLot's of critics in other rooms LOVE to find fault with my work. Most are trolls and do NOT read what I write on the charts.
If you press the PLAY button again today, the price is within range of the yellow line. Well guess what.. per instruction, you are NOT supposed to follow the yellow line as an exact vector. THE PURPOSE of the yellow line is for you to look at the same area ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE CHART.
This means.. if we FOLLOW the left side.. it is POSSIBLE.. very shortly.. the price MIGHT reach a low (like it has this morning) and bounce UP. WHY? Because on the left side of the chart is a bounce UP that comes BEFORE the next big DIP (see FLAG on the right side of chart)
Does this mean this will happen? No. There is no guarantee
Can the dip happen now and skip the rise? Yes.
ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN. This is why you should look at other author's TA charts for short term.
My chart is a mirror. It is theoretical. It has also been more or less correct for 5 days no.. but every passing day, that chart MUST BE OFF... because in mirror theory... the forecast lines are approximations.
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Some of you may be asking..Whey did the price rise early evening on July 7.. that's NOT how the yellow line follows.
If you look again at the LEFT side of the chart, there is a RISE.. just before the fall that happened on the that same LEFT SIDE.
Had any of you been buying the dips on the RIGHT side and selling at the rises, by following what happened on the LEFT SIDE.. then you would have making some very nice trades at high profit.
This would have been 4 times over the last five days.
The next skilled part is knowing when to buy into the dip... when the dip reaches the lowest point... and then having the courage to exit at the first completed high. AND.. this is where the TA from other authors can help.
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This concept is called day trading, because you are not holding.ملاحظة
Trapping of FOOLISH responses to price movement...I had someone comment on my chart the other day. This person said nice chart, but too bad the latest price movement ruined the chart.
This is the perfect example of how reckless people are capable of thinking. If this person had read what was WRITTEN ON THE CHART.. they would know the yellow line is at best an approximation.. because the LEFT SIDE OF THE CHART is what the yellow line is based. And.. the LEFT SIDE moves up and down like crazy (and I do not have the patience to spend hours and hours drawing the yellow line to perfection)
In addition, the chart is NOT ruined even if the movement was NOT exact, because the INVERTED HS is still in play.
And even more interesting, this article explains why the latest movement might be a bull trap. Experts are NOT convinced this is a sign of a resume bull run. Please read the full article.
ambcrypto.com/crypto-rebound-bitcoin-at-7800-ethereum-nears-500-ripple-at-0-487/
Even if my chart does NOT follow an exact replica of the left side.. that's never been my claim. To be clear, this chart is based on MANIPULATION theory... and the manipulators are supposed to be forcing a bull run by making it appear to be a MIRROR inverted HS.
The lesson to be learned? Do YOUR research before you make foolish conclusions on price movement.. because if you are buying and selling on such hasty conclusions... you will pay the price.
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How to re-interpret the current chart against price TODAY..Forget the yellow line, it is a child's crayon representing the LEFT SIDE of the inverted HS.
Press the PLAY BUTTON..
Take a good look.. there are sections that are identical in pattern shapes to the right side. Then it skips a bit and another similar pattern repeats.
That's probably where the nudges are occurring.
So I am following other TA for short term. If you are trading this is the best TA I found..
That massive drop in the yellow line area.. may never go that deep.
It's looking like it won't for now.
Here are your supports going downward.
6790, 6688, 6640, 6590, 6570
Each time the price falls, it will be possible the price will halt. Then it could bounce up again. How high? Don't know.
It then could fall further and bounce at the next level. How high? don't know. However, the TA I am seeing, the author feels we are overall recovering.
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Son of a biscuit...the big price drop predicted on the chart HAPPENED...
(the one with the flag)
This supports the inverted HS theory.. so far at least.
Again, press the PLAY button.
Remember, the left side of the chart cannot possibly be price for price identical to the right side. However.. you will notice that the general movements are very very similar. Swings up and swings down, as if a child were drawing the right side to match the left side.. inexact, but a general copy.
Now let us see if the price goes down a bit more .. or if the price recovers.
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One factor I consider is the dynamic regression forecast chart (Dyn FC)bitcoinforecast.com/kraken.usd
If you notice, the price WRAPS itself around the forecast line, which is heading down as a general FORECAST. The price can resist the downtrend by moving sideways. It also can fall below the line or ride above it. In some instance it can defy the line, but is not as common. Use the Dyn FC as your last of the many indicators for price direction.
I still need to visit the TA of trusted authors. My gut says we might drop a bit more, but... this MAY be the last stop on this fall. I must find out who feels we have more room to drop vs those who used TA to determine that up is next movement.
If this is a the right stop.. just below 6380... then I myself will buy here.
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Okay.. starting to find NEW analysis out there. This drop caught many by surprise because they were on the RAMPAGE of Bitcoins to the moon.We all WANT the price to fly.. but reality is to forecast price to where it really wants to go.
And in some models, we MIGHT be heading down to a low that even EXCEEDS the theoretical bottom that everyone thought we hit two weeks ago.
My favorite authors have NOT republished. So I am waiting.
In the meantime, I viewed a chart that shows futures trading vs true trading and combined it looks like an impressive volume.. but it is the true trading that reflects the health of the market. According to that chart, it is not good news.
Good news for a recovery would be the announcement of an FCC approved ETF product. That news alone is like announcing the opening of a new night club.. yeah, everyone runs and wants to check out, then other night clubs open just like it. :)
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Here is an example of a PRETEND trade...I pretended I bought ETHER at 435 (I did NOT, since I FEEL price will fall, as I have not gotten important TA yet) That price was 6375 Bitcoins.
20 Minutes later, ETHER is at 442. If it hit 445 and I sold, what would have happened.
Well if I bought 5 coins... that would have been a $ 50 profit, but my exchange would have eaten $ 24 in fees.
Net profit would be $ 25. And in my world, that is NOT worth my time. However, someone else might say, hell yes. $ 25 a day for five days would help my living expenses.
Price is still fluctuating. For example as I write this, ETHER went down to 440. And had I bought at 435, I would still be glued to the screen, waiting, wondering.
For those of you more experienced, forgive this mini lesson in trading.
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One of my most trusted TA forecasters just published a report.He TA was optimistically bullish, but NOT by bias. The TA was looking very bullish at the time.
As you know, I am a manipulation theorist. I believe greater master minds are at work while trade volume is low.
So that TA of one of my favorite authors is now learning toward price heading downward. This supports my own gut feeling (but gut feelings are NOT true TA.. remember that.)
The Bitcoins master support line is the 6000 area, but there are other support-stop lines higher up, just have NOT seen anyone publish those numbers yet.
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The above report is confusing. Correction: This master forecastor WAS bullish last week. Today, his new reports are showing that the TA indicators have reversed. His lines now forecast movement DOWNWARD. He advises that NO ONE buy at this moment. I say if you really like to risk small trades, you can consider it.. but it's like surfing crazy waves with an undertow at a rocky beach.
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This is IMPORTANT news.. fresh off the pressambcrypto.com/bitcoin-etf-license-application-sec-filed-cboe-global-markets/
ETFs will be the door main doors for the floodgates of incoming Bitcoin capital from investors.
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So here is what happened over the middle of the night..The price went as low as 425 ETHER and 6296 Bitcoins.
And this is what we were expecting. There was a strong support TREND LINE at that price, we bounced there before twice already.
In the middle of the night the price headed upward. At the moment we are caught between a support at 6300 and 6390 or 425 and 445 ETHER.
The price is running up and down in that range.
If any of you bought ETHER at 425 and then quickly sold at 445.. then congrats on making a decent profit trade.
However, at this moment, I can't find any convincing TA that leads me to believe we will stay where we are in the coming days. Will we fall more or rise out of this dip as shown on my inverted HS? Time will tell.
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Got a report from my best TA pros...The market high the other day went from 6820 to the low of 6260. We shed 10%
Can't say the WILD CHART did not warn us. It was delayed but it's still following the inverted HS plan.
so NOW WHAT?
We have four scenarios. Not helpful? Well here are the trend lines.
If the price moves up.. these are resistance 6350 (we're there now)
6485 and 6790
If the price moves down.. support lines are 6250, possibly 6180 and 6000 (psychological) and then 5920.
My favorite theorist thinks that breaking upward is a tough probability. And if we do.. then it might stop at 6485 and fall back down.
I am NOT recommending what you should do at this time. It's a gamble in any direction.
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Reading the news at my favorite sources...Short term:
Most seem to think the price will sink further that it is today.
Longer term:
Speculators are almost all purged out of the market; this is good. Futures is dominating the trading right now, not new money; this is not so good. Lot's of positive Bitcoin news in the world, but professional analysts feel it will not take effect until last quarter 2018.
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Update...so how may people have YOU seen screaming in the various idea channels, Bitcoin to the moon, the price is GOING UP.. and yadda yadda yadda?
Yes. The price will be going up. ONE DAY. In the meantime, those who have been following my forecasts that were heading down, when myself and the TA authors who I follow suggested that.. thanks for your patronage.
Bitcoin is at a major lower support level that is more psychological than anything else. It was a previous trend line, but trend lines MOVE.. they are often slanted and they are not constant day to day.
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Another thing to point out.. When you press the PLAY button, this map is fairly on target. With ONE NEW EXCEPTION.
The current price.. if it falls lower.. will INVALIDATE the play.
It means that the play is NO LONGER valid going forward and needs to be redrawn. That is no easy feat when manipulation is involved.
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If any of you bought Ether or Bitcoinsat the low of 6100 or 4717 the other day... just as it got ready to bounce back up, congratulations.
Myself, I just made it home minutes after the bounce and was like.. awwww!
The price stopped almost exactly where it stopped of the right side of the inverted HS.
Again.. it appears that this mirror inverted HS is about to break it's shape and invalidate.
If it invalidates I need to start a new chart just to bring everything up to date.
As I just woke up, still need to gather the forecasts from my most trusted TA pros on Tradingview and outside of Tradingview.
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Error, I meant Bitcons 6100 and Ether 417ملاحظة
As I am writing this..Price has started to dive. Already down to 6200 and 433 ETHER. For all I know, this may be nothing or the start of a gradual drop toward a retest of 6000.
Either way, it's giving hell to the bulls.
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The bottom (as we saw it 11 days ago) may NOT be the final word on a bottom. To me, it is starting to look like a GIANT bottom plateau..
I have YET to redraw this idea.
The pattern I envision is a month long SUPER or COMPLEX inverted HS
A pattern within a pattern, with its own inverted HS in the center with a twin double eve bottom.
The first part of the twin eve bottom was that tiny double bottom we had 12 days ago
And now, I feel a new one is coming.
Then from THAT final bottom, we start our bull run.
Mid- August maybe?
The final bottom may be as low as 5700 in MY opinion
This is based on fundamentals more than anything.
Will Woo also called 5700 as official bottom over 6 months ago
Technically, we have NEVER touched that price.
Some people totally discredit fundamentals, but I have seen proof that you cannot ignore them..
I always factor them in my charts when the merit significance.
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My flight got delayed...and the price just shot up
If you press the PLAY button on THiS CHART
the irony is that THIS chart was correct all this time.. if and the big if.. the price holds
Will be out of town until Friday...
by Friday we will know if this chart should be re-activated
even more amazing is how OLD this chart is..
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