BTC Wyckoff (Re-)Accumulation?

تم تحديثه

This begins to look like re-accumulation - still unconfirmed, but looks pretty strangely like what we had after Jan. 08th this year. Until this is confirmed (significant break above - like in the bar shadow from Jan.) we must assume we are still in Phase E of the previous distribution trend - we can however assume that the resistance at will be much more fierce this time.

To be updated.

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Positive: The top of the current swing was around the level of the automatic rally (around 40k) and we have since then formed a creek and closed below the middle of the trading range (-30k) which means that it is likely that the bottom of the trading range at 30k will be tested next as expected from an accumulation and we could - potentially, not necessarily, it's not a must - see a spring at or close to the selling climax at 30k.

Negative: That said, during the creek we should see a decline of volume which should reach the lowest level at the potential spring where the demand is greater than the supply and ease a trend reversal back to jump up and across the creek. We have however seen an increase in volume in the last 24 hours which would normally be inline with distribution rather than accumulation. That said, this could potentially be because of the CME futures expiration that happend (last Friday of the month) and people covering their positions on the last day of the month. Also, 24h and 2D bollinger bands expanded quite a bit, exposing even as potential downside target - a close below 30k (a dip is ok) would expose the 30k-25k.

Conclusion: Still too early to tell whether this is accumulation or distribution. I expect more downside, but wouldn't take the risk to catch a falling knife at this point until I see a clear trend reversal.

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Addendum: And I would not long or short so close to middle of the trading range. A rally above the trading range however I would probably short at this point.

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Potential path for accumulation without a Spring (Don't fixate on price and time it just for illustration purposes:

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Back to the middle of the trend line. Volume still decreasing. Doesn't seem ready to try make a break to the upside of the trading range just yet. Again, I would be cautious to take positions at this spot.

Monthly candle is up in about 12 hours and it doesn't look ... favourable.

I could see a small rally before the close of the monthly candle, before diving once more - if there is enough to demand at the 30k support remains to be watched.

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Volume and TR swings still diminishing as the price spread becomes smaller. Supply is likely to become exhausted soon at this levels. I expect that we will visit the lower end of the TR (36k-30k) soon (not necessarily all the way down to 30k - remember, we don't always require I Spring, however I would like to believe we will see one here). I think we're currently transitioning out from Phase B to Phase C.

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That's the supply line we need to break and flip into support.

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Interestingly alts like ADA, DOT, ETH ... looks like a distribution pattern.

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Potential path for BTC if this is re-distribution rather than re-accumulation.

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Let's see how we do with that triangle. Breakout volume was low.

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It seems we are unable to cross that red supply line. If this will be a lower high it will break the trend. Looking at how overbought we are on the 3h, 6h, 12h, 1D ... well never say never, but the odds are not in favour.

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Reminder: Still too early to tell if this is re-distribution or re-accumulation - however, I'm leaning towards re-distribution at present. Only a break of the trading range above or below $30 will tell.

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Why I said ADA (and other alts) look like distribution

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Potential path from here (Note: This is 6m TF):

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Personal: I don't really care if anyone reads this or presses the "like" button. You're welcome!

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Bigger picture. Updated labels for re-distribution (still not confirmed - trade with caution)

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Update:

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A 6h+12h close below the green support line and the middle of the TR(36.2k) will most likely throw us to the lower end of the trading range.

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Updated view:

Just for clarification: Please trade with caution. The problem with Last Point of Supplys (LPSY) - if these are LPSYs right now at all - is that you never know if there will be a swing to the upside liquidating your shorts especially if you just shorted when you thought it looks like a LPSY. You need to monitor and adjust your SL if needed. This whole thing can very much still turn around quickly. We don't have confirmation and there is a lot of support down where we are. Also, the bar pattern is just meant as an example - the current chart will not follow it price and timewise and most likely not even go to the same ranges - if it does, it is nothing but pure coincidence.

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Potential signs of re-accumulation at this point:
- Widing price range and volatility
- Steady increase of volume (potentialy after a spring or mini shakeout)
- Breaking upside on previous TRs (if it drops below, it should come back quickly)
- Pronounced and stronger SOS Bars (large, little wicks)

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MFI seems to indicate oversold in short-term (90m, 3h, 6h, 12h) - it seems we've found our bottom for now, plus the order book was quite loaded at the ~34.5 level indicating strong support. If this is truly LPSY - IF- , it will last a while before Supply > Demand at this level and the downtrend resumes - or not.

Anyway, at this point I will wait so see what the new TR will be and whether we can break into the previous TR - also I want to watch how the other cryptos are reacting. No need to rush a trade.

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Order Book: We have an equilibrium between short positions at around 36.5k and long positions at around 35.5k - don't expect much volatility here today. Volume slightly increasing, too less to talk about a turn around just yet. To close to the middle of the TR again to take the risks of a position at this time. Will enjoy a day off.

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We never closed a daily below $34.6 while trading in this range so far. Support is still strong. We'll find out what happens in about 1.5h.

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Expecting a tough fight around 34.6k - can't see it going up to 36.2k at this point - price action is too sluggish, although we are still oversold in the short-term TF. Volume is rising again, but not enough so far. Daily 50MA is closing in on 200MA, but will take a couple of more days - expecting a touch that will either make us bounce up or a death cross that might take us below 30k.

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BTC continues to surprise me.

- Widing price range and volatility - Check
- Steady increase of volume (potentialy after a spring or mini shakeout) - Check
- Breaking upside on previous TRs (if it drops below, it should come back quickly) - Check
- Pronounced and stronger SOS Bars (large, little wicks) - Check

Next thing I would like to see:
A break above 39.2k for a higher high and finally a significant break above 42.2k and flip it into support. Until then I'm still cautious.

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We were unable to get to a higher high above $39.5. It seems like we are aiming for a rounded top now. It will be interesting to see if manage to have a daily close above the middle of the trading range at 36.2k - if not, I expect more downside. Potentially this time below the support lines.

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Large cap alts continue to look like re-distribution as well (as always, still not confirmed until we make a major break down through their respective support lines - same with BTC).

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Incredibly hard to predict what's going to happen now and where we are right now - we also got a lot of mixed signals:

If we are in Phase D of Re-Accumulation:
This was a LPS, and we should push back above 40k and finally make a Sign of Strength with a significant green bar in the next 24-48h - see initial post in the thread. 50MA is closing in on 200MA and might cross up on the 4h leading to a golden cross which is a bullish signal. Volume looks good.

If we are in Phase D of Re-Distribution:
This was UTAD+Test, and we should see a feeble rallies from here on out which will bring us down to the support levels. 50MA is closing in on 200MA and might cross down on the daily leading to a death cross which is a bearish signal. Large cap alts still do not convince me in terms of a larger uptrend of the market.

Finally there is also the possibility of a mixed scenario where we are going back above 40k to potentially test the resistance at and then come down.

Either way, if you aren't in a trade right now, I'll wait for confirmation.

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Just to re-iterate:

Confirmation for Re-accumulation:
Significant daily close above 42.5k with a big green bar and volume.

Signal for Re-distribution:
Close below $36.2 - middle of the trading range.
Confirmation for Re-distribution:
Close below 30k.

Right now at we are at around equal distance to both scenarios.

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It seems we are continuing our descend down. We are close to $36.2 now which still acts as support for now. BTC is largely oversold right now - but there is no way to tell when or if we'll see as relief bounce. Overall it looks like bear market

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36.2k will now be resistance.

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There is a high potential for a "Death Maul" Candle here either today or tomorrow - a short & long squeeze before moving into a new trading range. (See yellow rectangles). At this point I'm looking to short at around 36.2k with a tight stop loss.

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Darth Maul - not Death Maul. May the Force forgive me.

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I think it's fair to assume the re-distribution pattern confirmed and valid at this point. I could see the cahart dance around the support lines for a bit before moving lower. How low is hard to say, I expect the new trading ranger to be smaller (first 64-42, right now 42-30) - I could see a Selling climax around $24-25k this time before trying to the previous support, future resistance at 30k.

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Price action is choppy - producing buy & sell signals on sub-hour TF like every other minute. Volume was rising until now, fells like wash trading /manipulation- some entities buying & selling to pump the volume and produce signals - be careful with your positions, set SL.

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Also large spread (difference between bid & ask) - seems to have calmed down now as well ...

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Assuming we are in re-distribution this is a very good position to take shorts before we drop below the trendline again. Don't forget your stop-loss.

Why I don't think this was a re-accumulation string: I'm missing the Signal of Strength above the middle of TR at 36.2k - unless this occurs I still believe we are in re-distribution and this is a LPSY (Last Point of Supply) before moving into Phase E: Markdown.

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Still not convinced whether this was a Spring and we are headed in Phase D of re-accumulation or this is an LPSY before we move down into Phase E of re-distribution.

For re-.accummulation I would like to see a significant move above the middle of the TR up to 38k level with a SOS bar on high volume and flipping the resistance at around $35.5 to support and testing it - and this rather quickly.

For distribution we still need to close below 30k - currently I'm still leaning on re-distribution because I see higher volume when moving down then moving up and we haven't made it past the resistance at $35.5-$36.2 yet.

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BTC (now) vs CSCO (2020) Comparison

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If we close below $34.6 this would be our lowest weekly close in this consolidation range. Spread continues to narrow for now.

Ozmium

منشورات ذات صلة

BTC Wyckoff Distribution

من ‎Ozmium‎

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