30-Year Bond Trendline Back-Test

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Many are considering the Fed actions as a pivot, but the Fed could look to to continue to tighten policy and maintain a hawkish approach. The 30-year bond futures have been in a steady uptrend going back to 1999, holding strong trendline support, until April when we saw a break below the trendline. This week, we are looking to back-test this breakdown level which now acts as strong resistance after the bounce off the 200-day moving average. As we continue to retest these strong levels, keep an eye out for the Jobs data coming out Friday to give a catalyst to the bond market back above the trendline or back towards the 200-day moving average.