Absorption Analysis

٣٠ ديسمبر ٢٠٢٤

The Absorption Analysis indicator identifies potential market turning points by analyzing volume, price patterns, and market structure across multiple dimensions. It combines traditional technical signals with volume analysis and success rate tracking to provide high-probability reversal opportunities.

Signal Types & Classification

1. Pattern-Based Signals (W-Bottom & M-Top)

**W-Bottom Pattern**
- Pattern Structure:
* Price makes a low below the lower Bollinger Band
* First bounce occurs with price moving higher
* Secondary test forms a higher low
* Final confirmation with bullish close above lower band
- Volume Requirements:
* Must exceed 1.5x the 20-period volume moving average
- Visual Indicators:
* Blue dotted line appears at pattern low
* Line remains until broken by price
* Label shows volume and percentage from baseline
- Success Tracking:
* Pattern stored in historical database
* Success measured by upward price movement
* Historical success rate displayed with signal

**M-Top Pattern**
- Pattern Structure:
* Price makes a high above the upper Bollinger Band
* First pullback occurs with price moving lower
* Secondary push forms a lower high
* Final confirmation with bearish close below upper band
- Volume Requirements:
* Must exceed 1.5x the 20-period volume moving average
- Visual Indicators:
* Orange dotted line appears at pattern high
* Line remains until broken by price
* Label shows volume and percentage from baseline
- Success Tracking:
* Pattern stored in historical database
* Success measured by downward price movement
* Historical success rate displayed with signal

2. Technical Reversals

**Bullish Reversal**
- Entry Conditions:
* Previous candle closes below lower Bollinger Band
* Previous candle must be bearish
* Current candle closes above lower band
* Current candle must be bullish
- Volume Validation:
* Volume must exceed 1.5x 20-period MA
- Visual Markers:
* Green label at reversal point
* Includes volume context
- Trading Implementation:
* Suggests strong buying pressure overcoming selling
* Often marks end of downward price exhaustion

**Bearish Reversal**
- Entry Conditions:
* Previous candle closes above upper Bollinger Band
* Previous candle must be bullish
* Current candle closes below upper band
* Current candle must be bearish
- Volume Validation:
* Volume must exceed 1.5x 20-period MA
- Visual Markers:
* Red label at reversal point
* Includes volume context
- Trading Implementation:
* Suggests strong selling pressure overcoming buying
* Often marks end of upward price exhaustion

3. Volume-Based Reversals

**High Volume Bear to Bull**
- Signal Formation:
* High volume bearish candle (2.5σ above mean)
* Immediately followed by high volume bullish candle
- Market Psychology:
* Shows strong selling being absorbed by buying
* Often indicates institutional accumulation
- Visual Identification:
* Purple "HV Bull" label
* Includes volume statistics
- Trading Context:
* Strong signal for trend reversal
* Most effective at support levels

**High Volume Bull to Bear**
- Signal Formation:
* High volume bullish candle (2.5σ above mean)
* Immediately followed by high volume bearish candle
- Market Psychology:
* Shows strong buying being absorbed by selling
* Often indicates institutional distribution
- Visual Identification:
* Purple "HV Bear" label
* Includes volume statistics
- Trading Context:
* Strong signal for trend reversal
* Most effective at resistance levels

4. Absorption Signals

**Buy Absorption**
- Technical Requirements:
* High volume conditions (2.5σ above mean)
* Spread momentum must be negative
* Fast spread MA below slow spread MA
* Bullish closing candle
- Market Interpretation:
* Indicates buying pressure absorbing selling
* Often precedes upward movement
- Visual Markers:
* Red label with volume context
* Placed at significant price levels

**Sell Absorption**
- Technical Requirements:
* High volume conditions (2.5σ above mean)
* Spread momentum must be negative
* Fast spread MA below slow spread MA
* Bearish closing candle
- Market Interpretation:
* Indicates selling pressure absorbing buying
* Often precedes downward movement
- Visual Markers:
* Green label with volume context
* Placed at significant price levels

Volume Analysis Components

Volume Calculation
- Rolling baseline volume calculated based on timeframe:
* Monthly: 6-period sum
* Weekly: 12-period sum
* Daily: 20-period sum
* Intraday: Proportional to timeframe
- Net volume = Bullish volume - Bearish volume
- Volume percentage calculated against baseline
- High volume threshold = 2.5 standard deviations
- Pattern volume threshold = 1.5x 20MA

Exchange Aggregation
- Primary symbol (chart) always included
- Optional secondary symbol data
- Combines volume data for stronger signals
- Useful for crypto markets with split liquidity

Success Rate Implementation

Rate Calculation
- Based on user-defined lookback period
- Separately tracked for each pattern type
- Bullish patterns: Percentage of times price moved higher
- Bearish patterns: Percentage of times price moved lower
- Used to filter alerts with minimum threshold

Pattern Storage
- Arrays maintain historical pattern data
- Limited to lookback period size
- Oldest patterns removed as new ones form
- Constantly updated success rates

## Trading Implementation

### Signal Priority
1. Pattern Signals (W/M)
- Highest reliability due to complex criteria
- Must meet all volume and price conditions
- Line break provides clear invalidation

2. High Volume Reversals
- Strong indication of institutional activity
- Clear volume confirmation
- Immediate reversal potential

3. Technical Reversals
- Traditional technical analysis backbone
- Enhanced with volume confirmation
- Good for trend trading

4. Absorption Signals
- Early warning system
- Best used with other confirmations
- Good for position building

Best Practices
- Look for multiple signal types aligning
- Consider higher timeframe context
- Use success rates to filter setups
- Monitor volume context closely
- Wait for candle closes
- Use line breaks for clear invalidation
- Consider market structure
- Pay attention to success rates
- Use appropriate position sizing

Risk Management
- Use pattern breaks for stop losses
- Consider historical success rates
- Larger positions for multiple signal confluence
- Respect timeframe hierarchy
- Monitor volume for confirmation
- Use proper position sizing
- Consider market volatility

This indicator provides a comprehensive framework for identifying potential market turning points while maintaining rigorous risk management through multiple confirmation factors and clear invalidation levels.

٣١ ديسمبر ٢٠٢٤

ملاحظات الأخبار

add "--Abs--" for identification of absorption candles