[Excalibur] Advanced Polynomial Regression Trend Channel

EGYPTIAN ROOTED TALES:
Apophis (Greek) or Apep (Egyptian) was known by many cultures to be a mighty Egyptian archetype of chaos, darkness, and destruction. In ancient Egyptian mythology, Apophis was often depicted in the form of a fearsome menacing serpent, in those days, with an insatiable appetite for relentless malevolence. This dreaded entity was considered a formidable enemy and was also believed to appear as a giant serpent arising from the underworld.
Forever engaging in eternal battle, according to lore, Apophis' adversarial attributes represented the forces of disorder and anarchy clashing with the forces of order and harmony. This serpent's wickedly described figure was significantly symbolic of the disruptive, treacherous powers that Apophis embodied, those which threatened to plunge the perceivable archaic world into darkness. To the ancients, the legendary cyclical struggles against Apophis served as allegory reflecting on the macrocosm of the larger conflict between good and evil disparities that shaped early ancient civilization, much like the tree serpent.
One of Apophis’ mythological roots was immortally depicted on tomb stone. On one particular hieroglyphic wall tableau, in the second chamber of Inherkau’s tomb at Deir el-Medina, within the Theban Necropolis, portrays a mural of a serpent (Apep) under an edible fruit tree being slain in defeat. The species of snake depicted on various locations of tomb walls appears to me to bear a striking resemblance to the big eyed Echis pyramidum (Egyptian saw-scaled viper) native to regions of North Africa and the Middle East. It's a species of viper notoriously contributing to the most snake bite fatalities in the world still to this day; talk about a true harbinger of chaos incarnate. You do NOT want to cross paths with this asp in the dark of night, ever! Nor the other species of Echis found around Echid trees in the garden.
As we all know, fabled archaic storytelling can be misconstruing. Yet, these archaic serpent narratives still have echoes of significant notions and wisdom to learn from, especially in a modern technological society still rife with miscalculating deep snakes slithering about with intent to specifically plot disorder on national scales, and then profitably capitalize on it. Many deep black snakes are hiding in plain sight and under rocks. They do indeed speak and spell with forked tongues and malfeasance to the masses. I have great news. Tools now exist in the realms of AI combined with fractal programming circles to uncover these venomous viper mesh networks and investigatively monitor their subversive activities, so their days are surely numbered for... GAME OVER. Prepare to meet the doom you vain vipers have sought!
The arrival of the great and powerful international storm of the century has come, clothed in vindication. It's the only just way for the globe to clean house and move forward economically into the evolving herafter unobstructed by rampant evils and corruption. The foundations of future architectures are being established, and these nefarious obstacles MUST NOT hinder that path ahead.
With my former days of serpent wrangling being behind me, I now explore avenues of history, philosophy, programming, and mathematics, weaving them all into my daily routine. Now is the time to make some mathematical history unfold and get to the good and spicy stuff that you as the reader seek...
CALCULATING ON CHAOS:
Perhaps frightful characteristics of serpents (their maneuverability to adapt to any swervy situation) could be harnessed and channeled into a powerful tool for navigating the treacherous waters of data chaos. What if taming a monstrous beast of mayhem was not only possible, but fully achievable? Well, I think I have improved upon an approach to better tackle fractal chaos handling and observation within a modest PSv6 float environment without doubles. Finally, I've successfully turned my pet anaconda, Apophis, into a docile form of mathematical charting resilience beyond anything I have ever visually witnessed before. This novel work clearly deprecates ALL of my prior regression works by performing everything those delivered AND more, but it doesn't necessarily eliminate them into extinction.
INTRODUCTION:
Allow me to introduce Apophis! What you see showcased above is also referred to as 'Advanced Polynomial Regression Trend Channel' (APRTC) for technical minds. I would describe it as an avant-garde trend channel obtaining accurate polynomial approximations on market data with Pine v6.0. APRTC is a fractal following demystifier that I can only describe as being a signal trajectory tracking stalker manifesting as a data devouring demon. My full-fledged 'Excalibur' version of poly-regression swiftly captures undulating patterns present in market data with ease and at warp speed faster than you can blink. Now unchained, this is my rendering of polynomial wrath employing the "Immense Power of Pine".
By pushing techniques of regression to extremes, I am able to trace the serpentine trajectory of chaos up to a 50th order with 100s or 1000s of samples via "advanced polynomial regression" (APR), aka Apophis. This uniquely reactive trend channel method is designed to enhance the way we engage with the complex challenge of observably interpreting chaotic price behavior. While this is the end of the road for my revolutionary trend channel technology, that doesn't imply that future polynomial regression upgrades won't/might occur... There are a number of other supplementary concepts I have in my mind that could potentially prove useful eventually, who knows. However, for the moment, I feel it's wisest to monitor how accommodating APRTC is towards servers for the present time.
HISTORICAL ENDEAVORS:
Having wrangled countless wild serpents in my youth by the handfuls, tackling this was one multi-headed regression challenge temptation I couldn't resist. Besides, serpents in reality are more than often scared of us in the wild, so I assumed this shouldn't be too terribly hard. Wrong! It's been a complex struggle indeed. APRTC gave me many stinging bites for a LONG time. I had unknowingly opened Pandora's box of polynomials unprepared for what was to follow.
Long have I wrestled with Apophis throughout many nights for years with adversity, at last having arrived at a current grand solution and ultimately emerging victorious. Now, does the significance of the entitled name Apophis become more apparent at this point of reading? What you can now witness above is a very powerful blend of precision combined with maneuverability, concluding my dreamy expectations of a maximal experience with polynomial regression in TV charts. With all of my wizardry components finally assembled, Apophis genuinely is the most phenomenal indicator I ever devised in my life... as of yet.
How was this accomplished? By unlocking a deep understanding of the mathematical principles that govern regression, combined with an arsenal of mathemagical trickeries through sheer determination. I also spent an incredible amount of time flexing the unbendable 64bit float numerics to obtain a feasible order/degree of up to 50 polynomials or up to 4000 bars of regression (never simultaneously) on a labyrinth of samples. Lastly, what was needed was a pinch of mathematical pixie dust with a pleasant dose of Pine upgrades (lots of line re-drawings) that millions of other members can also utilize. Thank you so much, Pine developers, for once again turning meager proposed visions into materialized reality by leveraging the "Power of Pine" for the many!
DESCRIBING POLYNOMIAL REGRESSION:
APRTC is a visual guide for navigating noisy markets, providing both trajectory and structure through the power of mathematical modeling. Polynomial regression, especially at higher orders, exhibits obvious sidewinder/serpentine like characteristics. Even the channel extremities, on swift one second charts, resemble scales in motion with a pair of dashed exterior lines. This poly version presently yields the best quality of fit, providing an extreme "visual analysis" of your price action in high noise environments. The greater the order of the polynomial, the more pronounced the meandering regression characteristics become, as the algorithm strives to visually capture the fundamental fractal patterns most effectively.
Polynomial Regression in Action:
The medial line displays the core polynomial regression approximation in similarity to spinal backbones of serpents when following the movements of market data. Encasing the central structure, the channel's skin consists of enveloping lines having upper and lower extremes. To further enhance visualization, background fill colors distinguish the breadth between positive and negative territories of potential movement.
Additional internal dotted variability lines are available with multiple customizable settings to adjust dynamic dispersion, color, etc. One other exciting feature I added is the the ability to see the polynomial values with up to 50 (adjustable) decimal places if available. Witnessing Xⁿ values tapering near to 0.0 may indicate overfitting. Linear regression is available at order=1 and quadratic regression is invoked using order=2.
Information Criterion:
A toggleable label provides a multitude of information such as Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), order, period, etc. BIC serves as an polynomial regression fit metric, with lesser values indicating a better balance between polynomial order adjustments, reflecting a more accurate fit in relation to the channel's girth. One downside of BIC values is their often large numerical values, making visual comparisons challenging, and then also their rare occurrence as negative values.
Furthermore, I formulated my own "EXPERIMENTAL" Simpler Information Criterion (SIC) fit metric, which seems to offer better visual interpretability when adjusting order settings on a selected regression period, especially on minuscule price numerics. Positive valued SIC numerics with lesser digits also reflect a preferred better fit during order adjustment, same as applying BIC principles of the minimum having a superior calulation tendency. I'll let members be the judge of deciding whether my SIC is actually a superior information criterion compared to BIC.
TECHNICAL INTERPRETATION and APPLICATION:
The Apophis indicator utilizes high-order polynomial regression, up to a maximum 50th order ability to deliver a nuanced, visual representation of complex market dynamics. I would caution against using upwards toward a 50th order, because opting for a 50th order polynomial is categorically speaking "wildly unsane" in real-world practice. As the polynomial degree increases from lesser orders, the regression line exhibits more pronounced curvature and undulations.
Visually analyzing the regression curve can provide insights into prevailing trends, as well as volatility regimes. For example, a gently sloping line may signal a steady directional trend, while a tightly curled oscillating curve may indicate heightened volatility and range-bound trading. Settings are rather straight forward, and comparable to my former "Quadratic Regression Trend Channel" efforts, although one torturous feature from QRTC is omitted due too computational complexity concerns.
Notice: Trial invite only access will not be granted for this indicator. Those who are familiar with recognizing what APRTC is, you will either want it or not, to add to your arsenal of trading approaches.
When available time provides itself, I will consider your inquiries, thoughts, and concepts presented below in the comments section, should you have any questions or comments regarding this indicator. When my indicators achieve more prevalent use by TV members , I may implement more ideas when they present themselves as worthy additions. Have a profitable future everyone!
RISK DISCLAIMER:
My scripts and indicators are specifically intended for informational and educational use only. This script uses historical data points to perform calculations to derive real-time calculations. They do not infer, indicate, or guarantee future results or performance.
By utilizing this script/indicator or any portion of it, you agree to accept 100% responsibly and liability for your investment or financial decisions, and I will not be held liable for your subjective analytic interpretations incurring sustained monetary losses. The opinions and information visual or otherwise provided by this script/indicator is not investment advice, nor does it constitute recommendation.
No longer is my polynomial regression a lone wolf algorithm, as APRTC now has grown by leaps and bounds consisting of a plurality of polynomial regressions operating in coordination to detect the most suitable candidate. For example, out of necessity for sustaining nutrition in the wild, wolves strategize by cooperatively hunting in predatory packs. The advantage of this is to more effectively track down elusive prey. Secondarily, in technological realms of defense, projectiles are multi-tracked to reveal their directional course and potential destination. In doing so, the trajectory data would be used to anticipate the path of the observed object and then take appropriate reactive measures.
Both of these aforementioned tracking methodologies, whether in the natural world or the technological realm, provide significant advantages by enabling more effective responses to the observed target in question. Just as wolves hunt collaboratively to increase their chances of success, a cluster of regression models operate together as a pack, pooling together their collective observations to more accurately pursue the price action trajectory. With my novel polynomial adrenaline implemented, pack tactics are accomplished with post-calculation performance assessments being conducted on each regression calculation in order to discover the best of a bunch.
POLYNOMIAL ADRENALINE²:
Activating the newly upgraded adrenaline mode assesses accuracy, aimed at determining an optimal order automatically, streamlining the need for repetitive sustained user order adjustments. This key feature of self-assessment conducted by adrenaline mode is a beneficial tactic in the algorithm's order optimization process, as it evaluates numerous calculated order configurations to determine the most effective order, thus further maximizing the responsiveness of the trend analysis over the intended period selection.
These demanding processes consume a substantial amount of the Pine server's computational resources available per tick or bar update on PSv6. A measurement of time to compute (T2C) is available to reveal this intensive computational expense with each update. Basically I'm exhausting a tremendous of server processing power without being abusive. Adrenaline mode may operate on the bleeding edge of limitations of current allowable runtime per bar tick and/or memory, if settings are overly aggressive. Expanded tooltips in settings inputs are more explanatory, describing the nature of these adjustments and their impacts when pushing the boundaries of server capacities.
نص برمجي للمستخدمين المدعوين فقط
يمكن فقط للمستخدمين المصرح لهم من قبل المؤلف الوصول إلى هذا النص البرمجي، وهذا يتطلب عادةً الدفع. يمكنك إضافة النص البرمجي إلى مفضلاتك، ولكن لن تتمكن من استخدامه إلا بعد طلب الإذن والحصول عليه من مؤلفه - تعرف على المزيد هنا. لمزيد من التفاصيل، اتبع تعليمات المؤلف أدناه أو اتصل ImmortalFreedom مباشرة.
لا توصي TradingView بالدفع مقابل برنامج نصي أو استخدامه إلا إذا كنت تثق تمامًا في مؤلفه وتفهم كيفية عمله. يمكنك أيضًا العثور على بدائل مجانية ومفتوحة المصدر في نصوص مجتمعنا.
تعليمات المؤلف
تحذير: يرجى قراءة دليلنا الخاص بالنصوص المخصصة للمدعوين فقط قبل طلب الوصول.
إخلاء المسؤولية
نص برمجي للمستخدمين المدعوين فقط
يمكن فقط للمستخدمين المصرح لهم من قبل المؤلف الوصول إلى هذا النص البرمجي، وهذا يتطلب عادةً الدفع. يمكنك إضافة النص البرمجي إلى مفضلاتك، ولكن لن تتمكن من استخدامه إلا بعد طلب الإذن والحصول عليه من مؤلفه - تعرف على المزيد هنا. لمزيد من التفاصيل، اتبع تعليمات المؤلف أدناه أو اتصل ImmortalFreedom مباشرة.
لا توصي TradingView بالدفع مقابل برنامج نصي أو استخدامه إلا إذا كنت تثق تمامًا في مؤلفه وتفهم كيفية عمله. يمكنك أيضًا العثور على بدائل مجانية ومفتوحة المصدر في نصوص مجتمعنا.
تعليمات المؤلف
تحذير: يرجى قراءة دليلنا الخاص بالنصوص المخصصة للمدعوين فقط قبل طلب الوصول.