[blackcat] L3 RMI Trading StrategyLevel 3
Background
My view of correct usage of RSI and the relationship between RMI and RSI. A proposed RMI indicator with features is introduced
Descriptions
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a technical indicator that many people use. Its focus indicates the strength or weakness of a stock. In the traditional usage of this point, when the RSI is above 50, it is strong, otherwise it is weak. Above 80 is overbought, below 20 is oversold. This is what the textbook says. However, if you follow the principles in this textbook and enter the actual trading, you would lose a lot and win a little! What is the reason for this? When the RSI is greater than 50, that is, a stock enters the strong zone. At this time, the emotions of market may just be brewing, and as a result, you run away and watch others win profit. On the contrary, when RSI<20, that is, a stock enters the weak zone, you buy it. At this time, the effect of losing money is spreading. You just took over the chips that were dumped by the whales. Later, you thought that you had bought at the bottom, but found that you were in half mountainside. According to this cycle, there is a high probability that a phenomenon will occur: if you sell, price will rise, and if you buy, price will fall, who have similar experiences should quickly recall whether their RSI is used in this way. Technical indicators are weapons. It can be either a tool of bull or a sharp blade of bear. Don't learn from dogma and give it away. Trading is a game of people. There is an old saying called “people’s hearts are unpredictable”. Do you really think that there is a tool that can detect the true intentions of people’s hearts 100% of the time?
For the above problems, I suggest that improvements can be made in two aspects (in other words, once the strategy is widely spread, it is only a matter of time before it fails. The market is an adaptive and complex system, as long as it can be fully utilized under the conditions that can be used, it is not easy to use. throw or evolve):
1. RSI usage is the opposite. When a stock has undergone a deep adjustment from a high level, and the RSI has fallen from a high of more than 80 to below 50, it has turned from strong to weak, and cannot be bought in the short term. But when the RSI first moved from a low to a high of 80, it just proved that the stock was in a strong zone. There are funds in the activity, put into the stock pool.
Just wait for RSI to intervene in time when it shrinks and pulls back (before it rises when the main force washes the market). It is emphasized here that the use of RSI should be combined with trading volume, rising volume, and falling volume are all healthy performances. A callback that does not break an important moving average is a confirmed buying point or a second step back on an important moving average is a more certain buying point.
2. The RSI is changed to a more stable and adjustable RMI (Relative Momentum Indicator), which is characterized by an additional momentum parameter, which can not only be very close to the RSI performance, but also adjust the momentum parameter m when the market environment changes to ensure more A good fit for a changing market.
The Relative Momentum Index (RMI) was developed by Roger Altman and described its principles in his article in the February 1993 issue of the journal Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities. He developed RMI based on the RSI principle. For example, RSI is calculated from the close to yesterday's close in a period of time compared to the ups and downs, while the RMI is compared from the close to the close of m days ago. Therefore, in principle, when m=1, RSI should be equal to RMI. But it is precisely because of the addition of this m parameter that the RMI result may be smoother than the RSI.
Not much more to say, the below picture: when m=1, RMI and RSI overlap, and the result is the same.
The Shanghai 50 Index is from TradingView (m=1)
The Shanghai 50 Index is from TradingView (m=3)
The Shanghai 50 Index is from TradingView (m=5)
For this indicator function, I also make a brief introduction:
1. 50 is the strength line (white), do not operate offline, pay attention online. 80 is the warning line (yellow), indicating that the stock has entered a strong area; 90 is the lightening line (orange), once it is greater than 90 and a sell K-line pattern appears, the position will be lightened; the 95 clearing line (red) means that selling is at a climax. This is seen from the daily and weekly cycles, and small cycles may not be suitable.
2. The purple band indicates that the momentum is sufficient to hold a position, and the green band indicates that the momentum is insufficient and the position is short.
3. Divide the RMI into 7, 14, and 21 cycles. When the golden fork appears in the two resonances, a golden fork will appear to prompt you to buy, and when the two periods of resonance have a dead fork, a purple fork will appear to prompt you to sell.
4. Add top-bottom divergence judgment algorithm. Top_Div red label indicates top divergence; Bot_Div green label indicates bottom divergence. These signals are only for auxiliary judgment and are not 100% accurate.
5. This indicator needs to be combined with VOL energy, K-line shape and moving average for comprehensive judgment. It is still in its infancy, and open source is published in the TradingView community. A more complete advanced version is also considered for subsequent release (because the K-line pattern recognition algorithm is still being perfected).
Remarks
Feedbacks are appreciated.
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STD-Filtered, Adaptive Exponential Hull Moving Average [Loxx]STD-Filtered, Adaptive Exponential Hull Moving Average is a Kaufman Efficiency Ratio Adaptive Hull Moving Average that uses EMA instead of WMA for its computation. I've also added standard deviation stepping to further smooth the signal. Using EMA instead of WMA turns the Hull into what's called the AEHMA. You can read more about the EHMA here: eceweb1.rutgers.edu
What is the traditional Hull Moving Average?
The Hull Moving Average (HMA) attempts to minimize the lag of a traditional moving average while retaining the smoothness of the moving average line. Developed by Alan Hull in 2005, this indicator makes use of weighted moving averages to prioritize more recent values and greatly reduce lag. The resulting average is more responsive and well-suited for identifying entry points.
What is Kaufman's Efficiency Ratio?
The Efficiency Ratio (ER) was first presented by Perry Kaufman in his 1995 book ‘Smarter Trading‘. It is calculated by dividing the price change over a period by the absolute sum of the price movements that occurred to achieve that change. The resulting ratio ranges between 0 and 1 with higher values representing a more efficient or trending market.
The value of the ER ranges between 0 and 1. It has the value of 1 when prices move in the same direction for the full time over which the indicator is calculated, e.g. n bars period. It has a value of 0 when prices are unchanged over the n periods. When prices move in wide swings within the interval, the sum of the denominator becomes very large compared to the numerator and ER approaches zero.
Some uses for ER:
A qualifier for a trend following trade; a trend is considered “persistent” only when RE is above a certain value, e.g. 0.3 or 0.4 .
A filter to screen out choppy stocks/markets, where breakouts are frequently “fakeouts”.
In an adaptive trading system, helping to determine whether to apply a trend following algorithm or a mean reversion algorithm.
It is used in the calculation of Kaufman’s Adaptive Moving Average (KAMA).
How to calculate the Hull Adaptive Moving Average (HAMA)
Find Signal to Noise ratio (SNR)
Normalize SNR from 0 to 1
Calculate adaptive alphas
Apply EMAs
Included
Bar coloring
Signals
Alerts
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
Wolfpack Divergences [multigrain]█ OVERVIEW
A fast and improved divergence finding algorithm that aims to be better than the built-in TradingView divergence algorithm.
█ CONCEPTS
Wolfpack
Wolfpack is an oscillator made popular by darrellfischer1 all the way back in 2017. Since then the Wolfpack oscillator has been utilized by a number of notable strategy/indicator creators. At some point it was realized that the oscillator was simply the Moving Average Crossover Divergence oscillator with the fast and slow length of 3 and 8, respectively. The true significance and reasoning behind these lengths are unknown, however one may surmise that they are chosen due to their relevance as Fibonacci numbers.
Divergences
Divergence is when the price of an asset is moving in the opposite direction of a technical indicator, such as an oscillator, or is moving contrary to other data. Divergence warns that the current price trend may be weakening, and in some cases may lead to the price changing direction.
█ USAGE
Wolfpack
Similar to many other oscillators, when the Wolfpack oscillator reports a value above the zero-line, this indicates a bullish trend in the price. Subsequently, a value below the zero-line indicate a bearish trend in the price.
Divergences
Divergence in technical analysis may signal a major positive or negative price move. A positive divergence occurs when the price of an asset makes a new low while an indicator, such as money flow, starts to climb. Conversely, a negative divergence is when the price makes a new high but the indicator being analyzed makes a lower high.
Nearest Neighbor Extrapolation of Price [Loxx]I wasn't going to post this because I don't like how this calculates by puling in the Open price, but I'm posting it anyway. This does work in it's current form but there is a. better way to do this. I'll revisit this in the future.
Anyway...
The k-Nearest Neighbor algorithm (k-NN) searches for k past patterns (neighbors) that are most similar to the current pattern and computes the future prices based on weighted voting of those neighbors. This indicator finds only one nearest neighbor. So, in essence, it is a 1-NN algorithm. It uses the Pearson correlation coefficient between the current pattern and all past patterns as the measure of distance between them. Also, this version of the nearest neighbor indicator gives larger weights to most recent prices while searching for the closest pattern in the past. It uses a weighted correlation coefficient, whose weight decays linearly from newer to older prices within a price pattern.
This indicator also includes an error window that shows whether the calculation is valid. If it's green and says "Passed", then the calculation is valid, otherwise it'll show a red background and and error message.
Inputs
Npast - number of past bars in a pattern;
Nfut -number of future bars in a pattern (must be < Npast).
lastbar - How many bars back to start forecast? Useful to show past prediction accuracy
barsbark - This prevents Pine from trying to calculate on all past bars
Related indicators
Hodrick-Prescott Extrapolation of Price
Itakura-Saito Autoregressive Extrapolation of Price
Helme-Nikias Weighted Burg AR-SE Extra. of Price
Weighted Burg AR Spectral Estimate Extrapolation of Price
Levinson-Durbin Autocorrelation Extrapolation of Price
Fourier Extrapolator of Price w/ Projection Forecast
Hodrick-Prescott Extrapolation of Price [Loxx]Hodrick-Prescott Extrapolation of Price is a Hodrick-Prescott filter used to extrapolate price.
The distinctive feature of the Hodrick-Prescott filter is that it does not delay. It is calculated by minimizing the objective function.
F = Sum((y(i) - x(i))^2,i=0..n-1) + lambda*Sum((y(i+1)+y(i-1)-2*y(i))^2,i=1..n-2)
where x() - prices, y() - filter values.
If the Hodrick-Prescott filter sees the future, then what future values does it suggest? To answer this question, we should find the digital low-frequency filter with the frequency parameter similar to the Hodrick-Prescott filter's one but with the values calculated directly using the past values of the "twin filter" itself, i.e.
y(i) = Sum(a(k)*x(i-k),k=0..nx-1) - FIR filter
or
y(i) = Sum(a(k)*x(i-k),k=0..nx-1) + Sum(b(k)*y(i-k),k=1..ny) - IIR filter
It is better to select the "twin filter" having the frequency-independent delay Тdel (constant group delay). IIR filters are not suitable. For FIR filters, the condition for a frequency-independent delay is as follows:
a(i) = +/-a(nx-1-i), i = 0..nx-1
The simplest FIR filter with constant delay is Simple Moving Average (SMA):
y(i) = Sum(x(i-k),k=0..nx-1)/nx
In case nx is an odd number, Тdel = (nx-1)/2. If we shift the values of SMA filter to the past by the amount of bars equal to Тdel, SMA values coincide with the Hodrick-Prescott filter ones. The exact math cannot be achieved due to the significant differences in the frequency parameters of the two filters.
To achieve the closest match between the filter values, I recommend their channel widths to be similar (for example, -6dB). The Hodrick-Prescott filter's channel width of -6dB is calculated as follows:
wc = 2*arcsin(0.5/lambda^0.25).
The channel width of -6dB for the SMA filter is calculated by numerical computing via the following equation:
|H(w)| = sin(nx*wc/2)/sin(wc/2)/nx = 0.5
Prediction algorithms:
The indicator features the two prediction methods:
Metod 1:
1. Set SMA length to 3 and shift it to the past by 1 bar. With such a length, the shifted SMA does not exist only for the last bar (Bar = 0), since it needs the value of the next future price Close(-1).
2. Calculate SMA filer's channel width. Equal it to the Hodrick-Prescott filter's one. Find lambda.
3. Calculate Hodrick-Prescott filter value at the last bar HP(0) and assume that SMA(0) with unknown Close(-1) gives the same value.
4. Find Close(-1) = 3*HP(0) - Close(0) - Close(1)
5. Increase the length of SMA to 5. Repeat all calculations and find Close(-2) = 5*HP(0) - Close(-1) - Close(0) - Close(1) - Close(2). Continue till the specified amount of future FutBars prices is calculated.
Method 2:
1. Set SMA length equal to 2*FutBars+1 and shift SMA to the past by FutBars
2. Calculate SMA filer's channel width. Equal it to the Hodrick-Prescott filter's one. Find lambda.
3. Calculate Hodrick-Prescott filter values at the last FutBars and assume that SMA behaves similarly when new prices appear.
4. Find Close(-1) = (2*FutBars+1)*HP(FutBars-1) - Sum(Close(i),i=0..2*FutBars-1), Close(-2) = (2*FutBars+1)*HP(FutBars-2) - Sum(Close(i),i=-1..2*FutBars-2), etc.
The indicator features the following inputs:
Method - prediction method
Last Bar - number of the last bar to check predictions on the existing prices (LastBar >= 0)
Past Bars - amount of previous bars the Hodrick-Prescott filter is calculated for (the more, the better, or at least PastBars>2*FutBars)
Future Bars - amount of predicted future values
The second method is more accurate but often has large spikes of the first predicted price. For our purposes here, this price has been filtered from being displayed in the chart. This is why method two starts its prediction 2 bars later than method 1. The described prediction method can be improved by searching for the FIR filter with the frequency parameter closer to the Hodrick-Prescott filter. For example, you may try Hanning, Blackman, Kaiser, and other filters with constant delay instead of SMA.
Related indicators
Itakura-Saito Autoregressive Extrapolation of Price
Helme-Nikias Weighted Burg AR-SE Extra. of Price
Weighted Burg AR Spectral Estimate Extrapolation of Price
Levinson-Durbin Autocorrelation Extrapolation of Price
Fourier Extrapolator of Price w/ Projection Forecast
Real-Fast Fourier Transform of Price w/ Linear Regression [Loxx]Real-Fast Fourier Transform of Price w/ Linear Regression is a indicator that implements a Real-Fast Fourier Transform on Price and modifies the output by a measure of Linear Regression. The solid line is the Linear Regression Trend of the windowed data, The green/red line is the Real FFT of price.
What is the Discrete Fourier Transform?
In mathematics, the discrete Fourier transform (DFT) converts a finite sequence of equally-spaced samples of a function into a same-length sequence of equally-spaced samples of the discrete-time Fourier transform (DTFT), which is a complex-valued function of frequency. The interval at which the DTFT is sampled is the reciprocal of the duration of the input sequence. An inverse DFT is a Fourier series, using the DTFT samples as coefficients of complex sinusoids at the corresponding DTFT frequencies. It has the same sample-values as the original input sequence. The DFT is therefore said to be a frequency domain representation of the original input sequence. If the original sequence spans all the non-zero values of a function, its DTFT is continuous (and periodic), and the DFT provides discrete samples of one cycle. If the original sequence is one cycle of a periodic function, the DFT provides all the non-zero values of one DTFT cycle.
What is the Complex Fast Fourier Transform?
The complex Fast Fourier Transform algorithm transforms N real or complex numbers into another N complex numbers. The complex FFT transforms a real or complex signal x in the time domain into a complex two-sided spectrum X in the frequency domain. You must remember that zero frequency corresponds to n = 0, positive frequencies 0 < f < f_c correspond to values 1 ≤ n ≤ N/2 −1, while negative frequencies −fc < f < 0 correspond to N/2 +1 ≤ n ≤ N −1. The value n = N/2 corresponds to both f = f_c and f = −f_c. f_c is the critical or Nyquist frequency with f_c = 1/(2*T) or half the sampling frequency. The first harmonic X corresponds to the frequency 1/(N*T).
The complex FFT requires the list of values (resolution, or N) to be a power 2. If the input size if not a power of 2, then the input data will be padded with zeros to fit the size of the closest power of 2 upward.
What is Real-Fast Fourier Transform?
Has conditions similar to the complex Fast Fourier Transform value, except that the input data must be purely real. If the time series data has the basic type complex64, only the real parts of the complex numbers are used for the calculation. The imaginary parts are silently discarded.
Inputs:
src = source price
uselreg = whether you wish to modify output with linear regression calculation
Windowin = windowing period, restricted to powers of 2: "4", "8", "16", "32", "64", "128", "256", "512", "1024", "2048"
Treshold = to modified power output to fine tune signal
dtrendper = adjust regression calculation
barsback = move window backward from bar 0
mutebars = mute bar coloring for the range
Further reading:
Real-valued Fast Fourier Transform Algorithms IEEE Transactions on Acoustics, Speech, and Signal Processing, June 1987
Related indicators utilizing Fourier Transform
Fourier Extrapolator of Variety RSI w/ Bollinger Bands
Fourier Extrapolation of Variety Moving Averages
Fourier Extrapolator of Price w/ Projection Forecast
Phase Accumulation, Smoothed Williams %R Histogram [Loxx]Phase Accumulation, Smoothed Williams %R Histogram is a Williams %R indicator using dynamic inputs from Ehlers Phase Accumulation Dominant Cycle Period Algorithm. This indicator includes alerts and signals and is in a smoothed histogram form. The version of Phase Accumulation in this indicator is a modified form of of Ehlers algorithm to allow for better smoothing and cycle length selection.
What is Williams %R?
Williams %R , also known as the Williams Percent Range, is a type of momentum indicator that moves between 0 and -100 and measures overbought and oversold levels. The Williams %R may be used to find entry and exit points in the market. The indicator is very similar to the Stochastic oscillator and is used in the same way. It was developed by Larry Williams and it compares a stock’s closing price to the high-low range over a specific period, typically 14 days or periods.
What is Phase Accumulation?
The phase accumulation method of computing the dominant cycle is perhaps the easiest to comprehend. In this technique, we measure the phase at each sample by taking the arctangent of the ratio of the quadrature component to the in-phase component. A delta phase is generated by taking the difference of the phase between successive samples. At each sample we can then look backwards, adding up the delta phases.When the sum of the delta phases reaches 360 degrees, we must have passed through one full cycle, on average.The process is repeated for each new sample.
The phase accumulation method of cycle measurement always uses one full cycle’s worth of historical data.This is both an advantage and a disadvantage.The advantage is the lag in obtaining the answer scales directly with the cycle period.That is, the measurement of a short cycle period has less lag than the measurement of a longer cycle period. However, the number of samples used in making the measurement means the averaging period is variable with cycle period. longer averaging reduces the noise level compared to the signal.Therefore, shorter cycle periods necessarily have a higher out- put signal-to-noise ratio.
Included:
-Toggle on/off bar coloring
-Toggle on/off signals
-Alerts long/short
-Loxx's Expanded Source Types Library
Jurik DMX Histogram [Loxx]Jurik DMX Histogram is the ultra-smooth, low lag version of your classic DMI indicator.
What is the directional movement index?
The directional movement index (DMI) is an indicator developed by J. Welles Wilder in 1978 that identifies in which direction the price of an asset is moving. The indicator does this by comparing prior highs and lows and drawing two lines: a positive directional movement line (+DI) and a negative directional movement line (-DI). An optional third line, called the average directional index (ADX), can also be used to gauge the strength of the uptrend or downtrend.
When +DI is above -DI, there is more upward pressure than downward pressure in the price. Conversely, if -DI is above +DI, then there is more downward pressure on the price. This indicator may help traders assess the trend direction. Crossovers between the lines are also sometimes used as trade signals to buy or sell.
What is Jurik Volty used in the Juirk Filter?
One of the lesser known qualities of Juirk smoothing is that the Jurik smoothing process is adaptive. "Jurik Volty" (a sort of market volatility ) is what makes Jurik smoothing adaptive. The Jurik Volty calculation can be used as both a standalone indicator and to smooth other indicators that you wish to make adaptive.
What is the Jurik Moving Average?
Have you noticed how moving averages add some lag (delay) to your signals? ... especially when price gaps up or down in a big move, and you are waiting for your moving average to catch up? Wait no more! JMA eliminates this problem forever and gives you the best of both worlds: low lag and smooth lines.
Ideally, you would like a filtered signal to be both smooth and lag-free. Lag causes delays in your trades, and increasing lag in your indicators typically result in lower profits. In other words, late comers get what's left on the table after the feast has already begun.
What is an adaptive cycle, and what is Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm?
From his Ehlers' book Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced Technical Trading Concepts by John F. Ehlers , 2013, page 135:
"Adaptive filters can have several different meanings. For example, Perry Kaufman’s adaptive moving average ( KAMA ) and Tushar Chande’s variable index dynamic average ( VIDYA ) adapt to changes in volatility . By definition, these filters are reactive to price changes, and therefore they close the barn door after the horse is gone.The adaptive filters discussed in this chapter are the familiar Stochastic , relative strength index ( RSI ), commodity channel index ( CCI ), and band-pass filter.The key parameter in each case is the look-back period used to calculate the indicator. This look-back period is commonly a fixed value. However, since the measured cycle period is changing, it makes sense to adapt these indicators to the measured cycle period. When tradable market cycles are observed, they tend to persist for a short while.Therefore, by tuning the indicators to the measure cycle period they are optimized for current conditions and can even have predictive characteristics.
The dominant cycle period is measured using the Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm. That dominant cycle dynamically sets the look-back period for the indicators. I employ my own streamlined computation for the indicators that provide smoother and easier to interpret outputs than traditional methods. Further, the indicator codes have been modified to remove the effects of spectral dilation.This basically creates a whole new set of indicators for your trading arsenal."
Included
- Toggle on/off bar coloring
Adaptive, Jurik-Filtered, JMA/DWMA MACD [Loxx]Adaptive, Jurik-Filtered, JMA/DWMA MACD is MACD oscillator with a twist. The traditional calculation of MACD is the between two EMAs of price. This traditional approach yields a very noisy and lagged signal. To solve this problem, JMA/DWMA MACD uses the difference between adaptive Juirk-Filtered price and adaptive DWMA to yield a marked improvement over traditional MACD.
What is JMA / DWMA oscillator (MACD)?
Of all the different combinations of moving average filters to use for a MACD oscillator, we prefer using the JMA - DWMA combination.
JMA is ideal for the fast moving average line because it is quick to respond to reversals, is smooth and can be set to have no overshoot. DWMA (double weighted moving average) is ideal for the slower line as is tends to delay reversing direction until JMA crosses it.
What is Jurik Volty used in the Juirk Filter?
One of the lesser known qualities of Juirk smoothing is that the Jurik smoothing process is adaptive. "Jurik Volty" (a sort of market volatility ) is what makes Jurik smoothing adaptive. The Jurik Volty calculation can be used as both a standalone indicator and to smooth other indicators that you wish to make adaptive.
What is the Jurik Moving Average?
Have you noticed how moving averages add some lag (delay) to your signals? ... especially when price gaps up or down in a big move, and you are waiting for your moving average to catch up? Wait no more! JMA eliminates this problem forever and gives you the best of both worlds: low lag and smooth lines.
Ideally, you would like a filtered signal to be both smooth and lag-free. Lag causes delays in your trades, and increasing lag in your indicators typically result in lower profits. In other words, late comers get what's left on the table after the feast has already begun.
What is an adaptive cycle, and what is Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm?
From his Ehlers' book Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced Technical Trading Concepts by John F. Ehlers , 2013, page 135:
"Adaptive filters can have several different meanings. For example, Perry Kaufman’s adaptive moving average ( KAMA ) and Tushar Chande’s variable index dynamic average ( VIDYA ) adapt to changes in volatility . By definition, these filters are reactive to price changes, and therefore they close the barn door after the horse is gone.The adaptive filters discussed in this chapter are the familiar Stochastic , relative strength index ( RSI ), commodity channel index ( CCI ), and band-pass filter.The key parameter in each case is the look-back period used to calculate the indicator. This look-back period is commonly a fixed value. However, since the measured cycle period is changing, it makes sense to adapt these indicators to the measured cycle period. When tradable market cycles are observed, they tend to persist for a short while.Therefore, by tuning the indicators to the measure cycle period they are optimized for current conditions and can even have predictive characteristics.
The dominant cycle period is measured using the Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm. That dominant cycle dynamically sets the look-back period for the indicators. I employ my own streamlined computation for the indicators that provide smoother and easier to interpret outputs than traditional methods. Further, the indicator codes have been modified to remove the effects of spectral dilation.This basically creates a whole new set of indicators for your trading arsenal."
Included
- Toggle on/off bar coloring
Adaptive, Jurik-Filtered, Floating RSI [Loxx]Adaptive, Jurik-Filtered, Floating RSI is an adaptive RSI indicator that smooths the RSI signal with a Jurik Filter.
This indicator contains three different types of RSI. They are following.
Wilders' RSI:
The Relative Strength Index ( RSI ) is a well versed momentum based oscillator which is used to measure the speed (velocity) as well as the change (magnitude) of directional price movements. Essentially RSI , when graphed, provides a visual mean to monitor both the current, as well as historical, strength and weakness of a particular market. The strength or weakness is based on closing prices over the duration of a specified trading period creating a reliable metric of price and momentum changes. Given the popularity of cash settled instruments (stock indexes) and leveraged financial products (the entire field of derivatives); RSI has proven to be a viable indicator of price movements.
RSX RSI:
RSI is a very popular technical indicator, because it takes into consideration market speed, direction and trend uniformity. However, the its widely criticized drawback is its noisy (jittery) appearance. The Jurk RSX retains all the useful features of RSI , but with one important exception: the noise is gone with no added lag.
Rapid RSI:
Rapid RSI Indicator, from Ian Copsey's article in the October 2006 issue of Stocks & Commodities magazine.
RapidRSI resembles Wilder's RSI , but uses a SMA instead of a WilderMA for internal smoothing of price change accumulators.
This indicator also uses adaptive cycles to calculate input lengths
What is an adaptive cycle, and what is Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm?
From his Ehlers' book Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced Technical Trading Concepts by John F. Ehlers , 2013, page 135:
"Adaptive filters can have several different meanings. For example, Perry Kaufman’s adaptive moving average ( KAMA ) and Tushar Chande’s variable index dynamic average ( VIDYA ) adapt to changes in volatility . By definition, these filters are reactive to price changes, and therefore they close the barn door after the horse is gone.The adaptive filters discussed in this chapter are the familiar Stochastic , relative strength index ( RSI ), commodity channel index ( CCI ), and band-pass filter.The key parameter in each case is the look-back period used to calculate the indicator. This look-back period is commonly a fixed value. However, since the measured cycle period is changing, it makes sense to adapt these indicators to the measured cycle period. When tradable market cycles are observed, they tend to persist for a short while.Therefore, by tuning the indicators to the measure cycle period they are optimized for current conditions and can even have predictive characteristics.
The dominant cycle period is measured using the Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm. That dominant cycle dynamically sets the look-back period for the indicators. I employ my own streamlined computation for the indicators that provide smoother and easier to interpret outputs than traditional methods. Further, the indicator codes have been modified to remove the effects of spectral dilation.This basically creates a whole new set of indicators for your trading arsenal."
Lastly, RSI is filtered and smoothed using a Jurik Filter
What is Jurik Volty?
One of the lesser known qualities of Juirk smoothing is that the Jurik smoothing process is adaptive. "Jurik Volty" (a sort of market volatility ) is what makes Jurik smoothing adaptive. The Jurik Volty calculation can be used as both a standalone indicator and to smooth other indicators that you wish to make adaptive.
What is the Jurik Moving Average?
Have you noticed how moving averages add some lag (delay) to your signals? ... especially when price gaps up or down in a big move, and you are waiting for your moving average to catch up? Wait no more! JMA eliminates this problem forever and gives you the best of both worlds: low lag and smooth lines.
Ideally, you would like a filtered signal to be both smooth and lag-free. Lag causes delays in your trades, and increasing lag in your indicators typically result in lower profits. In other words, late comers get what's left on the table after the feast has already begun.
Usage
-Red fill color when RSI is in overbought zone means a possible bear trend is incoming
-Green fill color when RSI is in overbought zone means a possible bear trend is incoming
Included
-Bar coloring
Adaptive Jurik Filter MACD [Loxx]Adaptive Jurik Filter MACD uses Jurik Volty and Adaptive Double Jurik Filter Moving Average (AJFMA) to derive Jurik Filter smoothed volatility.
What is MACD?
Moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of a security’s price. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-period exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA.
The result of that calculation is the MACD line. A nine-day EMA of the MACD called the "signal line," is then plotted on top of the MACD line, which can function as a trigger for buy and sell signals. Traders may buy the security when the MACD crosses above its signal line and sell—or short—the security when the MACD crosses below the signal line. Moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicators can be interpreted in several ways, but the more common methods are crossovers, divergences, and rapid rises/falls.
What is Jurik Volty?
One of the lesser known qualities of Juirk smoothing is that the Jurik smoothing process is adaptive. "Jurik Volty" (a sort of market volatility ) is what makes Jurik smoothing adaptive. The Jurik Volty calculation can be used as both a standalone indicator and to smooth other indicators that you wish to make adaptive.
What is the Jurik Moving Average?
Have you noticed how moving averages add some lag (delay) to your signals? ... especially when price gaps up or down in a big move, and you are waiting for your moving average to catch up? Wait no more! JMA eliminates this problem forever and gives you the best of both worlds: low lag and smooth lines.
Ideally, you would like a filtered signal to be both smooth and lag-free. Lag causes delays in your trades, and increasing lag in your indicators typically result in lower profits. In other words, late comers get what's left on the table after the feast has already begun.
That's why investors, banks and institutions worldwide ask for the Jurik Research Moving Average ( JMA ). You may apply it just as you would any other popular moving average. However, JMA's improved timing and smoothness will astound you.
What is adaptive Jurik volatility?
One of the lesser known qualities of Juirk smoothing is that the Jurik smoothing process is adaptive. "Jurik Volty" (a sort of market volatility ) is what makes Jurik smoothing adaptive. The Jurik Volty calculation can be used as both a standalone indicator and to smooth other indicators that you wish to make adaptive.
What is an adaptive cycle, and what is Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm?
From his Ehlers' book Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced Technical Trading Concepts by John F. Ehlers , 2013, page 135:
"Adaptive filters can have several different meanings. For example, Perry Kaufman’s adaptive moving average ( KAMA ) and Tushar Chande’s variable index dynamic average ( VIDYA ) adapt to changes in volatility . By definition, these filters are reactive to price changes, and therefore they close the barn door after the horse is gone.The adaptive filters discussed in this chapter are the familiar Stochastic , relative strength index ( RSI ), commodity channel index ( CCI ), and band-pass filter.The key parameter in each case is the look-back period used to calculate the indicator. This look-back period is commonly a fixed value. However, since the measured cycle period is changing, it makes sense to adapt these indicators to the measured cycle period. When tradable market cycles are observed, they tend to persist for a short while.Therefore, by tuning the indicators to the measure cycle period they are optimized for current conditions and can even have predictive characteristics.
The dominant cycle period is measured using the Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm. That dominant cycle dynamically sets the look-back period for the indicators. I employ my own streamlined computation for the indicators that provide smoother and easier to interpret outputs than traditional methods. Further, the indicator codes have been modified to remove the effects of spectral dilation.This basically creates a whole new set of indicators for your trading arsenal."
Included
- Change colors of oscillators and bars
Adaptive Jurik Filter Volatility Oscillator [Loxx]Adaptive Jurik Filter Volatility Oscillator uses Jurik Volty and Adaptive Double Jurik Filter Moving Average (AJFMA) to derive Jurik Filter smoothed volatility.
What is Jurik Volty?
One of the lesser known qualities of Juirk smoothing is that the Jurik smoothing process is adaptive. "Jurik Volty" (a sort of market volatility ) is what makes Jurik smoothing adaptive. The Jurik Volty calculation can be used as both a standalone indicator and to smooth other indicators that you wish to make adaptive.
What is the Jurik Moving Average?
Have you noticed how moving averages add some lag (delay) to your signals? ... especially when price gaps up or down in a big move, and you are waiting for your moving average to catch up? Wait no more! JMA eliminates this problem forever and gives you the best of both worlds: low lag and smooth lines.
Ideally, you would like a filtered signal to be both smooth and lag-free. Lag causes delays in your trades, and increasing lag in your indicators typically result in lower profits. In other words, late comers get what's left on the table after the feast has already begun.
That's why investors, banks and institutions worldwide ask for the Jurik Research Moving Average ( JMA ). You may apply it just as you would any other popular moving average. However, JMA's improved timing and smoothness will astound you.
What is adaptive Jurik volatility?
One of the lesser known qualities of Juirk smoothing is that the Jurik smoothing process is adaptive. "Jurik Volty" (a sort of market volatility ) is what makes Jurik smoothing adaptive. The Jurik Volty calculation can be used as both a standalone indicator and to smooth other indicators that you wish to make adaptive.
What is an adaptive cycle, and what is Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm?
From his Ehlers' book Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced Technical Trading Concepts by John F. Ehlers , 2013, page 135:
"Adaptive filters can have several different meanings. For example, Perry Kaufman’s adaptive moving average ( KAMA ) and Tushar Chande’s variable index dynamic average ( VIDYA ) adapt to changes in volatility . By definition, these filters are reactive to price changes, and therefore they close the barn door after the horse is gone.The adaptive filters discussed in this chapter are the familiar Stochastic , relative strength index ( RSI ), commodity channel index ( CCI ), and band-pass filter.The key parameter in each case is the look-back period used to calculate the indicator. This look-back period is commonly a fixed value. However, since the measured cycle period is changing, it makes sense to adapt these indicators to the measured cycle period. When tradable market cycles are observed, they tend to persist for a short while.Therefore, by tuning the indicators to the measure cycle period they are optimized for current conditions and can even have predictive characteristics.
The dominant cycle period is measured using the Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm. That dominant cycle dynamically sets the look-back period for the indicators. I employ my own streamlined computation for the indicators that provide smoother and easier to interpret outputs than traditional methods. Further, the indicator codes have been modified to remove the effects of spectral dilation.This basically creates a whole new set of indicators for your trading arsenal."
Included
- UI options to color bars
Adaptive Jurik Filter Volatility Bands [Loxx]Adaptive Jurik Filter Volatility Bands uses Jurik Volty and Adaptive, Double Jurik Filter Moving Average (AJFMA) to derive Jurik Filter smoothed volatility channels around an Adaptive Jurik Filter Moving Average. Bands are placed at 1, 2, and 3 deviations from the core basline.
What is Jurik Volty?
One of the lesser known qualities of Juirk smoothing is that the Jurik smoothing process is adaptive. "Jurik Volty" (a sort of market volatility ) is what makes Jurik smoothing adaptive. The Jurik Volty calculation can be used as both a standalone indicator and to smooth other indicators that you wish to make adaptive.
What is the Jurik Moving Average?
Have you noticed how moving averages add some lag (delay) to your signals? ... especially when price gaps up or down in a big move, and you are waiting for your moving average to catch up? Wait no more! JMA eliminates this problem forever and gives you the best of both worlds: low lag and smooth lines.
Ideally, you would like a filtered signal to be both smooth and lag-free. Lag causes delays in your trades, and increasing lag in your indicators typically result in lower profits. In other words, late comers get what's left on the table after the feast has already begun.
That's why investors, banks and institutions worldwide ask for the Jurik Research Moving Average ( JMA ). You may apply it just as you would any other popular moving average. However, JMA's improved timing and smoothness will astound you.
What is adaptive Jurik volatility?
One of the lesser known qualities of Juirk smoothing is that the Jurik smoothing process is adaptive. "Jurik Volty" (a sort of market volatility ) is what makes Jurik smoothing adaptive. The Jurik Volty calculation can be used as both a standalone indicator and to smooth other indicators that you wish to make adaptive.
What is an adaptive cycle, and what is Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm?
From his Ehlers' book Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced Technical Trading Concepts by John F. Ehlers , 2013, page 135:
"Adaptive filters can have several different meanings. For example, Perry Kaufman’s adaptive moving average ( KAMA ) and Tushar Chande’s variable index dynamic average ( VIDYA ) adapt to changes in volatility . By definition, these filters are reactive to price changes, and therefore they close the barn door after the horse is gone.The adaptive filters discussed in this chapter are the familiar Stochastic , relative strength index ( RSI ), commodity channel index ( CCI ), and band-pass filter.The key parameter in each case is the look-back period used to calculate the indicator. This look-back period is commonly a fixed value. However, since the measured cycle period is changing, it makes sense to adapt these indicators to the measured cycle period. When tradable market cycles are observed, they tend to persist for a short while.Therefore, by tuning the indicators to the measure cycle period they are optimized for current conditions and can even have predictive characteristics.
The dominant cycle period is measured using the Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm. That dominant cycle dynamically sets the look-back period for the indicators. I employ my own streamlined computation for the indicators that provide smoother and easier to interpret outputs than traditional methods. Further, the indicator codes have been modified to remove the effects of spectral dilation.This basically creates a whole new set of indicators for your trading arsenal."
Included
- UI options to shut off colors and bands
Adaptive, Jurik-Smoothed, Trend Continuation Factor [Loxx]Adaptive, Jurik-Smoothed, Trend Continuation Factor is a Trend Continuation Factor indicator with adaptive length and volatility inputs
What is the Trend Continuation Factor?
The Trend Continuation Factor (TCF) identifies the trend and its direction. TCF was introduced by M. H. Pee. Positive values of either the Positive Trend Continuation Factor (TCF+) and the Negative Trend Continuation Factor (TCF-) indicate the presence of a strong trend.
What is the Jurik Moving Average?
Have you noticed how moving averages add some lag (delay) to your signals? ... especially when price gaps up or down in a big move, and you are waiting for your moving average to catch up? Wait no more! JMA eliminates this problem forever and gives you the best of both worlds: low lag and smooth lines.
Ideally, you would like a filtered signal to be both smooth and lag-free. Lag causes delays in your trades, and increasing lag in your indicators typically result in lower profits. In other words, late comers get what's left on the table after the feast has already begun.
That's why investors, banks and institutions worldwide ask for the Jurik Research Moving Average ( JMA ). You may apply it just as you would any other popular moving average. However, JMA's improved timing and smoothness will astound you.
What is adaptive Jurik volatility?
One of the lesser known qualities of Juirk smoothing is that the Jurik smoothing process is adaptive. "Jurik Volty" (a sort of market volatility ) is what makes Jurik smoothing adaptive. The Jurik Volty calculation can be used as both a standalone indicator and to smooth other indicators that you wish to make adaptive.
What is an adaptive cycle, and what is Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm?
From his Ehlers' book Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced Technical Trading Concepts by John F. Ehlers , 2013, page 135:
"Adaptive filters can have several different meanings. For example, Perry Kaufman’s adaptive moving average ( KAMA ) and Tushar Chande’s variable index dynamic average ( VIDYA ) adapt to changes in volatility . By definition, these filters are reactive to price changes, and therefore they close the barn door after the horse is gone.The adaptive filters discussed in this chapter are the familiar Stochastic , relative strength index ( RSI ), commodity channel index ( CCI ), and band-pass filter.The key parameter in each case is the look-back period used to calculate the indicator. This look-back period is commonly a fixed value. However, since the measured cycle period is changing, it makes sense to adapt these indicators to the measured cycle period. When tradable market cycles are observed, they tend to persist for a short while.Therefore, by tuning the indicators to the measure cycle period they are optimized for current conditions and can even have predictive characteristics.
The dominant cycle period is measured using the Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm. That dominant cycle dynamically sets the look-back period for the indicators. I employ my own streamlined computation for the indicators that provide smoother and easier to interpret outputs than traditional methods. Further, the indicator codes have been modified to remove the effects of spectral dilation.This basically creates a whole new set of indicators for your trading arsenal."
Included
-Your choice of length input calculation, either fixed or adaptive cycle
-Bar coloring to paint the trend
Happy trading!
Adaptive Look-back/Volatility Phase Change Index on Jurik [Loxx]Adaptive Look-back, Adaptive Volatility Phase Change Index on Jurik is a Phase Change Index but with adaptive length and volatility inputs to reduce phase change noise and better identify trends. This is an invese indicator which means that small values on the oscillator indicate bullish sentiment and higher values on the oscillator indicate bearish sentiment
What is the Phase Change Index?
Based on the M.H. Pee's TASC article "Phase Change Index".
Prices at any time can be up, down, or unchanged. A period where market prices remain relatively unchanged is referred to as a consolidation. A period that witnesses relatively higher prices is referred to as an uptrend, while a period of relatively lower prices is called a downtrend.
The Phase Change Index (PCI) is an indicator designed specifically to detect changes in market phases.
This indicator is made as he describes it with one deviation: if we follow his formula to the letter then the "trend" is inverted to the actual market trend. Because of that an option to display inverted (and more logical) values is added.
What is the Jurik Moving Average?
Have you noticed how moving averages add some lag (delay) to your signals? ... especially when price gaps up or down in a big move, and you are waiting for your moving average to catch up? Wait no more! JMA eliminates this problem forever and gives you the best of both worlds: low lag and smooth lines.
Ideally, you would like a filtered signal to be both smooth and lag-free. Lag causes delays in your trades, and increasing lag in your indicators typically result in lower profits. In other words, late comers get what's left on the table after the feast has already begun.
That's why investors, banks and institutions worldwide ask for the Jurik Research Moving Average ( JMA ). You may apply it just as you would any other popular moving average. However, JMA's improved timing and smoothness will astound you.
What is adaptive Jurik volatility
One of the lesser known qualities of Juirk smoothing is that the Jurik smoothing process is adaptive. "Jurik Volty" (a sort of market volatility ) is what makes Jurik smoothing adaptive. The Jurik Volty calculation can be used as both a standalone indicator and to smooth other indicators that you wish to make adaptive.
What is an adaptive cycle, and what is Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm?
From his Ehlers' book Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced Technical Trading Concepts by John F. Ehlers, 2013, page 135:
"Adaptive filters can have several different meanings. For example, Perry Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) and Tushar Chande’s variable index dynamic average (VIDYA) adapt to changes in volatility. By definition, these filters are reactive to price changes, and therefore they close the barn door after the horse is gone.The adaptive filters discussed in this chapter are the familiar Stochastic, relative strength index (RSI), commodity channel index (CCI), and band-pass filter.The key parameter in each case is the look-back period used to calculate the indicator. This look-back period is commonly a fixed value. However, since the measured cycle period is changing, it makes sense to adapt these indicators to the measured cycle period. When tradable market cycles are observed, they tend to persist for a short while.Therefore, by tuning the indicators to the measure cycle period they are optimized for current conditions and can even have predictive characteristics.
The dominant cycle period is measured using the Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm. That dominant cycle dynamically sets the look-back period for the indicators. I employ my own streamlined computation for the indicators that provide smoother and easier to interpret outputs than traditional methods. Further, the indicator codes have been modified to remove the effects of spectral dilation.This basically creates a whole new set of indicators for your trading arsenal."
Included
-Your choice of length input calculation, either fixed or adaptive cycle
-Invert the signal to match the trend
-Bar coloring to paint the trend
Happy trading!
Adaptive MA Difference constructor [lastguru]A complimentary indicator to my Adaptive MA constructor. It calculates the difference between the two MA lines (inspired by the Moving Average Difference (MAD) indicator by John F. Ehlers). You can then further smooth the resulting curve. The parameters and options are explained here:
The difference is normalized by dividing the difference by twice its Root mean square (RMS) over Slow MA length. Inverse Fisher Transform is then used to force the -1..1 range.
Same Postfilter options are provided as in my Adaptive Oscillator constructor:
Stochastic - Stochastic
Super Smooth Stochastic - Super Smooth Stochastic (part of MESA Stochastic ) by John F. Ehlers
Inverse Fisher Transform - Inverse Fisher Transform
Noise Elimination Technology - a simplified Kendall correlation algorithm "Noise Elimination Technology" by John F. Ehlers
Momentum - momentum (derivative)
Except for Inverse Fisher Transform, all Postfilter algorithms can have Length parameter. If it is not specified (set to 0), then the calculated Slow MA Length is used.
Mean Shift Pivot ClusteringCore Concepts
According to Jeff Greenblatt in his book "Breakthrough Strategies for Predicting Any Market", Fibonacci and Lucas sequences are observed repeated in the bar counts from local pivot highs/lows. They occur from high to high, low to high, high to low, or low to high. Essentially, this phenomenon is observed repeatedly from any pivot points on any time frame. Greenblatt combines this observation with Elliott Waves to predict the price and time reversals. However, I am no Elliottician so it was not easy for me to use this in a practical manner. I decided to only use the bar count projections and ignore the price. I projected a subset of Fibonacci and Lucas sequences along with the Fibonacci ratios from each pivot point. As expected, a projection from each pivot point resulted in a large set of plotted data and looks like a huge gong show of lines. Surprisingly, I did notice clusters and have observed those clusters to be fairly accurate.
Fibonacci Sequence: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34...
Lucas Sequence: 2, 1, 3, 4, 7, 11, 18, 29, 47...
Fibonacci Ratios (converted to whole numbers): 23, 38, 50, 61, 78, 127, 161...
Light Bulb Moment
My eyes may suck at grouping the lines together but what about clustering algorithms? I chose to use a gimped version of Mean Shift because it doesn't require me to know in advance how many lines to expect like K-Means. Mean shift is computationally expensive and with Pinescript's 500ms timeout, I had to make due without the KDE. In other words, I skipped the weighting part but I may try to incorporate it in the future. The code is from Harrison Kinsley . He's a fantastic teacher!
Usage
Search Radius: how far apart should the bars be before they are excluded from the cluster? Try to stick with a figure between 1-5. Too large a figure will give meaningless results.
Pivot Offset: looks left and right X number of bars for a pivot. Same setting as the default TradingView pivot high/low script.
Show Lines Back: show historical predicted lines. (These can change)
Use this script in conjunction with Fibonacci price retracement/extension levels and/or other support/resistance levels. If it's no where near a support/resistance and there's a projected time pivot coming up, it's probably a fake out.
Notes
Re-painting is intended. When a new pivot is found, it will project out the Fib/Lucas sequences so the algorithm will run again with additional information.
The script is for informational and educational purposes only.
Do not use this indicator by itself to trade!
Nasdaq VXN Volatility Warning IndicatorToday I am sharing with the community a volatility indicator that uses the Nasdaq VXN Volatility Index to help you or your algorithms avoid black swan events. This is a similar the indicator I published last week that uses the SP500 VIX, but this indicator uses the Nasdaq VXN and can help inform strategies on the Nasdaq index or Nasdaq derivative instruments.
Variance is most commonly used in statistics to derive standard deviation (with its square root). It does have another practical application, and that is to identify outliers in a sample of data. Variance is defined as the squared difference between a value and its mean. Calculating that squared difference means that the farther away the value is from the mean, the more the variance will grow (exponentially). This exponential difference makes outliers in the variance data more apparent.
Why does this matter?
There are assets or indices that exist in the stock market that might make us adjust our trading strategy if they are behaving in an unusual way. In some instances, we can use variance to identify that behavior and inform our strategy.
Is that really possible?
Let’s look at the relationship between VXN and the Nasdaq100 as an example. If you trade a Nasdaq index with a mean reversion strategy or algorithm, you know that they typically do best in times of volatility . These strategies essentially attempt to “call bottom” on a pullback. Their downside is that sometimes a pullback turns into a regime change, or a black swan event. The other downside is that there is no logical tight stop that actually increases their performance, so when they lose they tend to lose big.
So that begs the question, how might one quantitatively identify if this dip could turn into a regime change or black swan event?
The Nasdaq Volatility Index ( VXN ) uses options data to identify, on a large scale, what investors overall expect the market to do in the near future. The Volatility Index spikes in times of uncertainty and when investors expect the market to go down. However, during a black swan event, historically the VXN has spiked a lot harder. We can use variance here to identify if a spike in the VXN exceeds our threshold for a normal market pullback, and potentially avoid entering trades for a period of time (I.e. maybe we don’t buy that dip).
Does this actually work?
In backtesting, this cut the drawdown of my index reversion strategies in half. It also cuts out some good trades (because high investor fear isn’t always indicative of a regime change or black swan event). But, I’ll happily lose out on some good trades in exchange for half the drawdown. Lets look at some examples of periods of time that trades could have been avoided using this strategy/indicator:
Example 1 – With the Volatility Warning Indicator, the mean reversion strategy could have avoided repeatedly buying this pullback that led to this asset losing over 75% of its value:
Example 2 - June 2018 to June 2019 - With the Volatility Warning Indicator, the drawdown during this period reduces from 22% to 11%, and the overall returns increase from -8% to +3%
How do you use this indicator?
This indicator determines the variance of VXN against a long term mean. If the variance of the VXN spikes over an input threshold, the indicator goes up. The indicator will remain up for a defined period of bars/time after the variance returns below the threshold. I have included default values I’ve found to be significant for a short-term mean-reversion strategy, but your inputs might depend on your risk tolerance and strategy time-horizon. The default values are for 1hr VXN data/charts. It will pull in variance data for the VXN regardless of which chart the indicator is applied to.
Disclaimer: Open-source scripts I publish in the community are largely meant to spark ideas or be used as building blocks for part of a more robust trade management strategy. If you would like to implement a version of any script, I would recommend making significant additions/modifications to the strategy & risk management functions. If you don’t know how to program in Pine, then hire a Pine-coder. We can help!
S&P500 VIX Volatility Warning IndicatorToday I am sharing with the community a volatility indicator that can help you or your algorithms avoid black swan events. Variance is most commonly used in statistics to derive standard deviation (with its square root). It does have another practical application, and that is to identify outliers in a sample of data. Variance in statistics is defined as the squared difference between a value and its mean. Calculating that squared difference means that the farther away the value is from the mean, the more the variance will grow (exponentially). This exponential difference makes outliers in the variance data more apparent.
Why does this matter?
There are assets or indices that exist in the stock market that might make us adjust our trading strategy if they are behaving in an unusual way. In some instances, we can use variance to identify that behavior and inform our strategy.
Is that really possible?
Let’s look at the relationship between VIX and the S&P500 as an example. If you trade an S&P500 index with a mean reversion strategy or algorithm, you know that they typically do best in times of volatility. These strategies essentially attempt to “call bottom” on a pullback. Their downside is that sometimes a pullback turns into a regime change, or a black swan event. The other downside is that there is no logical tight stop that actually increases their performance, so when they lose they tend to lose big.
So that begs the question, how might one quantitatively identify if this dip could turn into a regime change or black swan event?
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) uses options data to identify, on a large scale, what investors overall expect the market to do in the near future. The Volatility Index spikes in times of uncertainty and when investors expect the market to go down. However, during a black swan event, the VIX spikes a lot harder. We can use variance here to identify if a spike in the VIX exceeds our threshold for a normal market pullback, and potentially avoid entering trades for a period of time (I.e. maybe we don’t buy that dip).
Does this actually work?
In backtesting, this cut the drawdown of my index reversion strategies in half. It also cuts out some good trades (because high investor fear isn’t always indicative of a regime change or black swan event). But, I’ll happily lose out on some good trades in exchange for half the drawdown. Lets look at some examples of periods of time that trades could have been avoided using this strategy/indicator:
Example 1 – With the Volatility Warning Indicator, the mean reversion strategy could have avoided repeatedly buying this pullback that led to SPXL losing over 75% of its value:
Example 2 - June 2018 to June 2019 - With the Volatility Warning Indicator, the drawdown during this period reduces from 22% to 11%, and the overall returns increase from -8% to +3%
How do you use this indicator?
This indicator determines the variance of the VIX against a long term mean. If the variance of the VIX spikes over an input threshold, the indicator goes up. The indicator will remain up for a defined period of bars/time after the variance returns below the threshold. I have included default values I’ve found to be significant for a short-term mean-reversion strategy, but your inputs might depend on your risk tolerance and strategy time-horizon. The default values are for 1hr VIX data. It will pull in variance data for the VIX regardless of which chart the indicator is applied to.
Disclaimer : Open-source scripts I publish in the community are largely meant to spark ideas or be used as building blocks for part of a more robust trade management strategy. If you would like to implement a version of any script, I would recommend making significant additions/modifications to the strategy & risk management functions. If you don’t know how to program in Pine, then hire a Pine-coder. We can help!
Total VolumeThis simple indicator unifies the volumes of multiple exchanges/brokers. The idea of this indicator stems from the need to monitor the movements made by whales on other markets that can actually influence the price (manipulations, arbitrage, etc.).
Basically, we can:
* choose the number and symbols
* choose with which algorithm to merge the volumes (sum, average, weighted average, maximum)
* color the histogram (based on the dominant exchange, classic green/red color, no color)
Furthermore, there is a summary table which, in addition to indicating the volume for each exchange, also indicates the color attributed.
you can see the volume of the current exchange behind the volume obtained by the algorithm.
If you have any questions, doubts or suggestions please write to me.
Pulu's Moving AveragesPulu's Moving Averages
This script allows you to customize sets of moving averages. It is configured default as 3 Vegas tunnels + an MA12. You can re-configure it for any of your moving average studies. At the first release, it supports up to 7 moving averages, many parameters, and eight types of algorithms:
ALMA, Arnaud Legoux Moving Average
EMA, Exponential Moving Average
RMA, Adjusted exponential moving average (aka Wilder’s EMA)
SMA, Simple Moving Average
SWMA, Symmetrically-Weighted Moving Average
VWAP, Volume-Weighted Average Price
VWMA, Volume-Weighted Moving Average
WMA, Weighted Moving Average
If you are looking for only 3 moving averages, there is another script "Pulu's 3 Moving Averages".
Vigia blai5VIGÍA is the latest and current version of this weighted indicator that collects, combines and harmonizes the values of four other classic indicators: RSI, MFI, Bollinger Bands and Stochastic.
It is a 2nd Generation indicator, as it does not base its algorithm on pure price data, but on its evolution (volatility, volume differences, power variations, cycle phase ...) working from first generation indicators included and mixed in the algorithm.
With the RSI we detect current power or depletion; the MFI adds the harmonization between price and volume; Bollinger Bands warn us of positions in areas close to support and resistance, and Stochastic informs us of the favorable and unfavorable phases of its cycle. VIGÍA tries to gather all this information in a single value and signal. This is how the curve of this indicator emerges.
The layout of this curve is its own and different from that of the other four separately. But the key idea of this complex indicator is to harmonize the signals.
By "harmonizing" we mean that an exaggerated value of one of the individual indicators, being part of a set, is nuanced. On the other hand, a simultaneous good look in two or more, enhances the resulting signal making it more visible and clear for trading.
One of the main effects that I have tried to enhance in the various versions of VIGÍA is its geometry, so one of the best ways to operate the indicator is divergences, which are generally quite reliable.
But, unlike so many conventional indicators, VIGÍA allows us a relatively large number of operations, which can satisfy both lovers of the most daring techniques and those who are more prudent in their trading.
In the first place, the black line is properly the Watch Signal (SV), the soul and central element of this entire invention.
On it you will see that a red line is oscillating. It is an Exponential Average of the indicator itself (by default, value 20). It is of enormous interest for trading since the SV cuts on its Average can be taken as entry and exit signals. (To check it, you just have to check it on the history of any value or index).
But there are more elements. An important change is the transformation of fixed levels into variable trading bands. This system allows the environment to adapt to changes in the asset price, recognizing and transforming itself according to the trend or laterality phases through which it runs. The signal moves above and below a central zero value and (as always) with no extreme limits, because it is important to remember that VIGÍA is not an oscillator and that prevents it from reaching a predefined extreme and being 'keyed in'.
On the upper variable band, we enter the overload zone, in Vigía's own jargon, while under the lower variable band, the situation of the indicator is on discharge. It is interesting to observe how, precisely the crossing of these variable bands by Vigía coincides on many occasions with the fastest and most productive phase of the entire price shift, far from concepts that in this phase we should already abandon as outdated and unreliable such as "overbought" or "oversold."
The last two elements remain to be described: a timid blue dashed line and that flickering central area of color called the Astro.
The blue dashed line is named Filter. It is a much more useful element than its smooth and modest journey appears. The Filter has some really fascinating features. Notice, for example, that it is the only line that I keep in visible numerical value, to know exactly when it has a positive and negative value. In periods of laterality, it is a good ally to help us make decisions. It does more things, but that is a prize reserved for whoever pays some attention to it… :-))
We will finish by Astro. Astro is an indicator with its own personality that I designed separately, it is available independently, but I ended up incorporating it into Watcher, which also happens with the Medium Proportional Volume (MPV). Both can be presented or hidden, according to the tastes or needs of the user.
Astro is an adjustable trend indicator, a very useful little tool that will help us identify the critical points where we must consider entries or changes in position. Its default value is 8 cycles, which is a good fit for daily stocks, but I have left open the possibility of modifying its period to be able to take advantage of all its power in intraday temporalities. Once again, I invite you to DO NOT believe me, but to launch the indicator on any asset and evaluate the signals that Astro has offered on its history.
VWMA with kNN Machine Learning: MFI/ADXThis is an experimental strategy that uses a Volume-weighted MA (VWMA) crossing together with Machine Learning kNN filter that uses ADX and MFI to predict, whether the signal is useful. k-nearest neighbours (kNN) is one of the simplest Machine Learning classification algorithms: it puts input parameters in a multidimensional space, and then when a new set of parameters are given, it makes a prediction based on plurality vote of its k neighbours.
Money Flow Index (MFI) is an oscillator similar to RSI, but with volume taken into account. Average Directional Index (ADX) is an indicator of trend strength. By putting them together on two-dimensional space and checking, whether nearby values have indicated a strong uptrend or downtrend, we hope to filter out bad signals from the MA crossing strategy.
This is an experiment, so any feedback would be appreciated. It was tested on BTC/USDT pair on 5 minute timeframe. I am planning to expand this strategy in the future to include more moving averages and filters.
