Position Size Calculator + Live R/R Panel — SMC/ICT (@PueblaATH)Position Size + Live R/R Panel — SMC/ICT (@PueblaATH)
Position Size + Live R/R Panel — SMC/ICT (@PueblaATH) is a professional-grade risk management and execution module built for Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and ICT Traders who require accurate, repeatable, institution-style trade planning.
This tool delivers precise position sizing, R:R modeling, leverage and margin projections, fee-adjusted PnL outcomes, and real-time execution metrics—all directly on the chart. Optimized for crypto, forex, and futures, it provides scalpers, day traders, and swing traders with the clarity needed to execute high-quality trades with confidence and consistency.
What the Indicator Does
Institutional Position Sizing Engine
Calculates position size based on account balance, % risk, and SL distance.
Supports custom minimum lot size rounding across crypto, FX, indices, and derivatives.
Intelligent direction logic (Auto / Long / Short) based on SMC/ICT structure.
Advanced Risk/Reward & Profit Modeling
Real-time R:R ratio using actual rounded position size.
Live PnL readout that updates with price movements.
Gross & net profit projections with full fee deduction.
Execution Planning with Draggable Levels
Entry, SL, and TP levels fully draggable for fast scenario modeling.
Automatic projected lines backward/forward with clean label alignment.
TP and SL tags include % movement from Entry, ideal for SMC/ICT journaling.
Precise modeling of real exchange fee structures
Maker fee per side
Taker fee per side
Mixed fee modes (Maker entry, Taker exit, Average, etc.)
Leverage & Margin Forecasting
Margin requirements displayed for 3 customizable leverage settings.
Helps traders understand capital commitment before executing the trade.
Useful for futures, crypto perps, and CFD setups.
Clean HUD Panel for Rapid Decision-Making
A full professional trading panel displays:
Target & actual risk
Position size
Entry / SL / TP
TP/SL percentage distance
Gross profit
Net profit (after fees)
Fees @ TP and @ SL
Live PnL
Margin requirements
Optimized for SMC & ICT Workflows
Perfect for traders using:
Breakers, FVGs, OBs
Liquidity sweeps
Session models
Precision entries (OTE, Displacement, Rebalancing)
Leverage-based execution (crypto perps, futures)
How to Use It
Attach the indicator to your chart.
Set account balance, risk %, fee model, and leverage presets.
Drag Entry, SL, and TP to shape the setup.
View instant calculations of: Position size; R:R; Net PnL after fees; Margin required
Use it as your pre-trade checklist & execution model.
Originality & Credits
This script is an original creation by @PueblaATH, released under the MPL 2.0 license.
It does not copy, modify, or repackage any existing TradingView code.
All logic—including the fee engine, margin calculator, responsive HUD, dynamic risk model, and visual execution system—is authored specifically for this indicator.
Statistics
Yesterday Low LineTraces a red dotted line on the low of yesterdays session for the present graph - and extends into the future
RS Rating Multi-TimeframeRS Rating Multi-Timeframe (IBD-Style Relative Strength)
Short Description:
IBD-style Relative Strength Rating (1-99) comparing any stock's performance vs the S&P 500 across multiple timeframes.
Full Description:
Overview
This indicator calculates an IBD-style Relative Strength (RS) Rating that measures a stock's price performance relative to the S&P 500 over the past 12 months. The rating scale ranges from 1 (weakest) to 99 (strongest), telling you how a stock ranks against all other stocks in terms of relative performance.
How It Works
The RS Rating uses a weighted formula based on quarterly performance:
Last 63 days (1 quarter): 40% weight
Last 126 days (2 quarters): 20% weight
Last 189 days (3 quarters): 20% weight
Last 252 days (4 quarters): 20% weight
This weighting emphasizes recent performance while still accounting for longer-term strength.
Rating Interpretation
90-99 (Elite): Top 10% of all stocks - exceptional relative strength
80-89 (Excellent): Top 20% - strong leadership candidates
50-79 (Average): Middle of the pack
30-49 (Below Average): Underperforming the market
1-29 (Weak): Bottom 30% - avoid or consider shorting
Features
Multi-Timeframe: Works on any timeframe from 1-hour to weekly (always uses daily data for calculation)
Moving Average: Optional EMA or SMA of the RS Rating to smooth signals
Visual Zones: Color-coded zones for quick identification of strength/weakness
Signal Markers: Triangles appear when RS crosses key levels (80 and 30)
Info Table: Displays current RS Rating, change, MA value, and raw score
Alerts: Built-in alerts for key crossover events
Settings
Show Moving Average: Toggle MA line on/off
MA Length: Period for the moving average (default: 10)
MA Type: Choose between EMA or SMA
Benchmark Index: Change the comparison index (default: SP:SPX)
Show Rating Table: Toggle the info table on/off
How To Use
Buy candidates: Look for stocks with RS Rating above 80, ideally rising
Avoid: Stocks with RS Rating below 30 or falling rapidly
Confirmation: Use RS above its moving average as additional confirmation
Divergence: Watch for RS making new highs before price (bullish) or new lows before price (bearish)
Credits
RS Rating calculation methodology inspired by Investor's Business Daily (IBD) and adapted from Fred6724's RS Rating script. Percentile calibration based on analysis of ~6,600 US stocks.
Tags: relative strength, RS rating, IBD, momentum, CAN SLIM, benchmark, SPX, market leaders, stock ranking
Category: Relative Strength
PoC Migration Map [BackQuant]PoC Migration Map
A volume structure tool that builds a side volume profile, extracts rolling Points of Control (PoCs), and maps how those PoCs migrate through time so you can see where value is moving, how volume clusters shift, and how that aligns with trend regime.
What this is
This indicator combines a classic volume profile with a segmented PoC trail. It looks back over a configurable window, splits that window into bins by price, and shows you where volume has concentrated. On top of that, it slices the lookback into fixed bar segments, finds the local PoC in each segment, and plots those PoCs as a chain of nodes across the chart.
The result is a "migration map" of value:
A side volume profile that shows how volume is distributed over the recent price range.
A sequence of PoC nodes that show where local value has been accepted over time.
Lines that connect those PoCs to reveal the path of value migration.
Optional trend coloring based on EMA 12 and EMA 21, so each PoC also encodes trend regime.
Used together, this gives you a structural read on where the market has actually traded size, how "value" is moving, and whether that movement is aligned or fighting the current trend.
Core components
Lookback volume profile - a side histogram built from all closes and volumes in the chosen lookback window.
Segmented PoC trail - rolling PoCs computed over fixed bar segments, plotted as nodes in time.
Trend heatmap - optional color mapping of PoC nodes using EMA 12 versus EMA 21.
PoC labels - optional labels on every Nth PoC for easier reading and referencing.
How it works
1) Global lookback and binning
You choose:
Lookback Bars - how far back to collect data.
Number of Bins - how finely to split the price range.
The script:
Finds the highest high and lowest low in the lookback.
Computes the total price range and divides it into equal binCount slices.
Assigns each bar's close and volume into the appropriate price bin.
This creates a discretized volume distribution across the entire lookback.
2) Side volume profile
If "Show Side Profile" is enabled, a right-hand volume profile is drawn:
Each bin becomes a horizontal bar anchored at a configurable "Right Offset" from the current bar.
The horizontal width of each bar is proportional to that bin's volume relative to the maximum volume bin.
Optionally, volume values and percentages are printed inside the profile bars.
Color and transparency are controlled by:
Base Profile Color and its transparency.
A gradient that uses relative volume to modulate opacity between lower volume and higher volume bins.
Profile Width (%) - how wide the maximum bin can extend in bars.
This gives you an at-a-glance view of the volume landscape for the chosen lookback window.
3) Segmenting for PoC migration
To build the PoC trail, the lookback is divided into segments:
Bars per Segment - bars in each local cluster.
Number of Segments - how many segments you want to see back in time.
For each segment:
The script uses the same price bins and accumulates volume only from bars in that segment.
It finds the bin with the highest volume in that segment, which is the local PoC for that segment.
It sets the PoC price to the center of that bin.
It finds the "mid bar" of the segment and places the PoC node at that time on the chart.
This is repeated for each segment from older to newer, so you get a chain of PoCs that shows how local value has migrated over time.
4) Trend regime and color coding
The indicator precomputes:
EMA 12 (Fast).
EMA 21 (Slow).
For each PoC:
It samples EMA 12 and EMA 21 at the mid bar of that segment.
It computes a simple trend score as fast EMA minus slow EMA.
If trend heatmap is enabled, PoC nodes (and the lines between them) are colored by:
Trend Up Color if EMA 12 is above EMA 21.
Trend Down Color if EMA 12 is below EMA 21.
Trend Flat Color if they are roughly equal.
If the trend heatmap is disabled, PoC color is instead based on PoC migration:
If the current PoC is above the previous PoC, use the Up PoC Color.
If the current PoC is below the previous PoC, use the Down PoC Color.
If unchanged, use the Flat PoC Color.
5) Connecting PoCs and labels
Once PoC prices and times are known:
Each PoC is connected to the previous one with a dotted line, using the PoC's color.
Optional labels are placed next to every Nth PoC:
Label text uses a simple "PoC N" scheme.
Label background uses a configurable label background color.
Label border is colored by the PoC's own color for visual consistency.
This turns the PoCs into a visual path that can be read like a "value trajectory" across the chart.
What it plots
When fully enabled, you will see:
A right-sided volume profile for the chosen lookback window, built from volume by price.
Colored horizontal bars representing each price bin's relative volume.
Optional volume text showing each bin's volume and its percentage of the profile maximum.
A series of PoC nodes spaced across the chart at the mid point of each segment.
Dotted lines connecting those PoCs to show the migration path of value.
Optional PoC labels at each Nth node for easier reference.
Color-coding of PoCs and lines either by EMA 12 / 21 trend regime or by up/down PoC drift.
Reading PoC migration and market pressure
Side profile as a pressure map
The side profile shows where trading has been most active:
Thick, opaque bars represent high volume zones and possible high interest or acceptance areas.
Thin, faint bars represent low volume zones, potential rejection or transition areas.
When price trades near a high volume bin, the market is sitting on an area of prior acceptance and size.
When price moves quickly through low volume bins, it often does so with less friction.
This gives you a static map of where the market has been willing to do business within your lookback.
PoC trail as a value migration map
The PoC chain represents "where value has lived" over time:
An upward sloping PoC trail indicates value migrating higher. Buyers have been willing to transact at increasingly higher prices.
A downward sloping trail indicates value migrating lower and sellers pushing the center of mass down.
A flat or oscillating trail indicates balance or rotational behaviour, with no clear directional acceptance.
Taken together, you can interpret:
Side profile as "where the volume mass sits", a static pressure field.
PoC trail as "how that mass has moved", the dynamic path of value.
Trend heatmap as a regime overlay
When PoCs are colored by the EMA 12 / 21 spread:
Green PoCs mark segments where the faster EMA is above the slower EMA, that is, a local uptrend regime.
Red PoCs mark segments where the faster EMA is below the slower EMA, that is, a local downtrend regime.
Gray PoCs mark flat or ambiguous trend segments.
This lets you answer questions like:
"Is value migrating higher while the trend regime is also up?" (trend confirming value).
"Is value migrating higher but most PoCs are red?" (value against the prevailing trend).
"Has value started to roll over just as PoCs flip from green to red?" (early regime transition).
Key settings
General Settings
Lookback Bars - how many bars back to use for both the global volume profile and segment profiles.
Number of Bins - how many price bins to split the high to low range into.
Profile Settings
Show Side Profile - toggle the right-hand volume profile on or off.
Profile Width (%) - how wide the largest volume bar is allowed to be in terms of bars.
Base Profile Color - the starting color for profile bars, with transparency.
Show Volume Values - if enabled, print volume and percent for each non-zero bin.
Profile Text Color - color for volume text inside the profile.
PoC Migration Settings
Show PoC Migration - toggle the PoC trail plotting.
Bars per Segment - the number of bars contained in each segment.
Number of Segments - how many segments to build backwards from the current bar.
Horizontal Spacing (bars) - spacing between PoC nodes when drawn. (Used to separate PoCs horizontally.)
Label Every Nth PoC - draw labels at every Nth PoC (0 or 1 to suppress labels).
Right Offset (bars) - horizontal offset to anchor the side profile on the right.
Up PoC Color - color used when a PoC is higher than the previous one, if trend heatmap is off.
Down PoC Color - color used when a PoC is lower than the previous one, if trend heatmap is off.
Flat PoC Color - color used when the PoC is unchanged, if trend heatmap is off.
PoC Label Background - background color for PoC labels.
Trend Heatmap Settings
Color PoCs By Trend (EMA 12 / 21) - when enabled, overrides simple up/down coloring and uses EMA-based trend colors.
Fast EMA - length for the fast EMA.
Slow EMA - length for the slow EMA.
Trend Up Color - color for PoCs in a bullish EMA regime.
Trend Down Color - color for PoCs in a bearish EMA regime.
Trend Flat Color - color for neutral or flat EMA regimes.
Trading applications
1) Value migration and trend confirmation
Use the PoC path to see if value is following price or lagging it:
In a healthy uptrend, price, PoCs, and trend regime should all lean higher.
In a weakening trend, price may still move up, but PoCs flatten or start drifting lower, suggesting fewer participants are accepting the new highs.
In a downtrend, persistent downward PoC migration confirms that sellers are winning the value battle.
2) Identifying acceptance and rejection zones
Combine the side profile with PoC locations:
High volume bins near clustered PoCs mark strong acceptance zones, good areas to watch for re-tests and decision points.
PoCs that quickly jump across low volume areas can indicate rejection and fast repricing between value zones.
High volume zones with mixed PoC colors may signal balance or prolonged negotiation.
3) Structuring entries and exits
Use the map to refine trade location:
Fade trades against value migration are higher risk unless you see clear signs of exhaustion or regime change.
Pullbacks into prior PoC zones in the direction of the current PoC slope can offer higher quality entries.
Stops placed beyond major accepted zones (clusters of PoCs and high volume bins) are less likely to be hit by random noise.
4) Regime transitions
Watch how PoCs behave as the EMA regime changes:
A flip in EMA 12 versus EMA 21, coupled with a turn in PoC slope, is a strong signal that value is beginning to move with the new trend.
If EMAs flip but PoC migration does not follow, the trend signal may be early or false.
A weakening PoC path (lower highs in PoCs) while trend colors are still green can warn of a late-stage trend.
Best practices
Start with a moderate lookback such as 200 to 300 bars and a moderate bin count such as 20 to 40. Too many bins can make the profile overly granular and sparse.
Align "Bars per Segment" with your trading horizon. For example, 5 to 10 bars for intraday, 10 to 20 bars for swing.
Use the profile and PoC trail as structural context rather than as a direct buy or sell signal. Combine with your existing setups for timing.
Pay attention to clusters of PoCs at similar prices. Those are areas where the market has repeatedly accepted value, and they often matter on future tests.
Notes
This is a structural volume tool, not a complete trading system. It does not manage execution, position sizing or risk management. Use it to understand:
Where the bulk of trading has occurred in your chosen window.
How the center of volume has migrated over time.
Whether that migration is aligned with or fighting the current trend regime.
By turning PoC evolution into a visible path and adding a trend-aware heatmap, the PoC Migration Map makes it easier to see how value has been moving, where the market is likely to feel "heavy" or "light", and how that structure fits into your trading decisions.
TF7 Option vs Index Change RatioOverview
This indicator helps traders visualise the strength and direction of an option's price movement compared to its underlying index (NIFTY or SENSEX).
It calculates a Change Ratio, which is the percentage move in the option compared to the index movement during the same bar. This is especially useful for intraday traders looking for signs of momentum, divergence, or unusual strength/weakness in option pricing.
How It Works
The ratio is calculated as:
(Option LTP − Option Open) / (Index Close − Index Open)
The value is capped between −10 and +10 to filter out extreme or invalid spikes.
The ratio is displayed as a color-coded column chart:
🟩 Green bars: Option is moving in the same direction as the index.
🟥 Red bars: Option is underperforming or moving opposite to the index.
A compact table shows the last 5 bars of:
Option price change (with +/− sign)
Index price change
Calculated ratio (also color-coded)
You can toggle the table visibility in the settings.
Inputs & Features
Select underlying index: NIFTY or SENSEX
Toggle the data table display
Clean formatting with signed values and conditional color highlights
⚠️ Disclaimer
This is a visual analysis tool, not a buy/sell signal. Always validate with your trading strategy and risk management
#OptionsTrading, #NIFTY, #SENSEX, #ChangeRatio, #IndexAnalysis, #Momentum, #Divergence, #Intraday
Per Bak Self-Organized CriticalityTL;DR: This indicator measures market fragility. It measures the system's vulnerability to cascade failures and phase transitions. I've added four independent stress vectors: tail risk, volatility regime, credit stress, and positioning extremes. This allows us to quantify how susceptible markets are to disproportionate moves from small shocks, similar to how a steep sandpile is primed for avalanches.
Avalanches, forest fires, earthquakes, pandemic outbreaks, and market crashes. What do they all have in common? They are not random.
These events follow power laws - stable systems that naturally evolve toward critical states where small triggers can unleash catastrophic cascades.
For example, if you are building a sandpile, there will be a point with a little bit additional sand will cause a landslide.
Markets build fragility grain by grain, like a sandpile approaching avalanche.
The Per Bak Self-Organized Criticality (SOC) indicator detects when the markets are a few grains away from collapse.
This indicator is highly inspired by the work of Per Bak related to the science of self-organized criticality .
As Bak said:
"The earthquake does not 'know how large it will become'. Thus, any precursor state of a large event is essentially identical to a precursor state of a small event."
For markets, this means:
We cannot predict individual crash size from initial conditions
We can predict statistical distribution of crashes
We can identify periods of increased systemic risk (proximity to critical state)
BTW, this is a forwarding looking indicator and doesn't reprint. :)
The Story of Per Bak
In 1987, Danish physicist Per Bak and his colleagues discovered an important pattern in nature: self-organized criticality.
Their sandpile experiment revealed something: drop grains of sand one by one onto a pile, and the system naturally evolves toward a critical state. Most grains cause nothing. Some trigger small slides. But occasionally a single grain triggers a massive avalanche.
The key insight is that we cannot predict which grain will trigger the avalanche, but you can measure when the pile has reached a critical state.
Why Markets Are the Ultimate SOC System?
Financial markets exhibit all the hallmarks of self-organized criticality:
Interconnected agents (traders, institutions, algorithms) with feedback loops
Non-linear interactions where small events can cascade through the system
Power-law distributions of returns (fat tails, not normal distributions)
Natural evolution toward fragility as leverage builds, correlations tighten, and positioning crowds
Phase transitions where calm markets suddenly shift to crisis regimes
Mathematical Foundation
Power Law Distributions
Traditional finance assumes returns follow a normal distribution. "Markets return 10% on average." But I disagree. Markets follow power laws:
P(x) ∝ x^(-α)
Where P(x) is the probability of an event of size x, and α is the power law exponent (typically 3-4 for financial markets).
What this means: Small moves happen constantly. Medium moves are less frequent. Catastrophic moves are rare but follow predictable probability distributions. The "fat tails" are features of critical systems.
Critical Slowing Down
As systems approach phase transitions, they exhibit critical slowing down—reduced ability to absorb shocks. Mathematically, this appears as:
τ ∝ |T - T_c|^(-ν)
Where τ is the relaxation time, T is the current state, T_c is the critical threshold, and ν is the critical exponent.
Translation: Near criticality, markets take longer to recover from perturbations. Fragility compounds.
Component Aggregation & Non-Linear Emergence
The Per Bak SOC our index aggregates four normalized components (each scaled 0-100) with tunable weights:
SOC = w₁·C_tail + w₂·C_vol + w₃·C_credit + w₄·C_position
Default weights (you can change this):
w₁ = 0.34 (Tail Risk via SKEW)
w₂ = 0.26 (Volatility Regime via VIX term structure)
w₃ = 0.18 (Credit Stress via HYG/LQD + TED spread)
w₄ = 0.22 (Positioning Extremes via Put/Call ratio)
Each component uses percentile ranking over a 252-day lookback combined with absolute thresholds to capture both relative regime shifts and extreme absolute levels.
The Four Pillars Explained
1. Tail Risk (SKEW Index)
Measures options market pricing of fat-tail events. High SKEW indicates elevated outlier probability.
C_tail = 0.7·percentrank(SKEW, 252) + 0.3·((SKEW - 115)/0.5)
2. Volatility Regime (VIX Term Structure)
Combines VIX level with term structure slope. Backwardation signals acute stress.
C_vol = 0.4·VIX_level + 0.35·VIX_slope + 0.25·VIX_ratio
3. Credit Stress (HYG/LQD + TED Spread)
Tracks high-yield deterioration versus investment-grade and interbank lending stress.
C_credit = 0.65·percentrank(LQD/HYG, 252) + 0.35·(TED/0.75)·100
4. Positioning Extremes (Put/Call Ratio)
Detects extreme hedging demand through percentile ranking and z-score analysis.
C_position = 0.6·percentrank(P/C, 252) + 0.4·zscore_normalized
What the Indicator Really Measures?
Not Volatility but Fragility
Markets Going Down ≠ Fragility Building (actually when markets go down, risk and fragility are released)
The 0-100 Scale & Regime Thresholds
The indicator outputs a 0-100 fragility score with four regimes:
🟢 Safe (0-39): System resilient, can absorb normal shocks
🟡 Building (40-54): Early fragility signs, watch for deterioration
🟠 Elevated (55-69): System vulnerable
🔴 Critical (70-100): Highly susceptible to cascade failures
Further Reading for Nerds
Bak, P., Tang, C., & Wiesenfeld, K. (1987). "Self-organized criticality: An explanation of 1/f noise." Physical Review Letters.
Bak, P. & Chen, K. (1991). "Self-organized criticality." Scientific American.
Bak, P. (1996). How Nature Works: The Science of Self-Organized Criticality. Copernicus.
Feedback is appreciated :)
The Biz (ADX/DI/RSI Revised)This is an indicator that will help you trade the GEX, showing when price is trending hard, or about to reverse, and will guide you in picking direction and bias. (INDICATOR SLIGHTLY LAGS)
67 2.0Major Market Trading Hours
New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)
Open: 9:30 AM (ET)
Close: 4:00 PM (ET)
Pre-Market: 4:00 AM – 9:30 AM (ET)
After Hours: 4:00 PM – 8:00 PM (ET)
Nasdaq
Open: 9:30 AM (ET)
Close: 4:00 PM (ET)
Pre-Market: 4:00 AM – 9:30 AM (ET)
After Hours: 4:00 PM – 8:00 PM (ET)
London Stock Exchange (LSE)
Open: 8:00 AM (GMT)
Close: 4:30 PM (GMT)
Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE)
Open: 9:00 AM (JST)
Lunch Break: 11:30 AM – 12:30 PM (JST)
Close: 3:00 PM (JST)
Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX)
Open: 9:30 AM (HKT)
Lunch Break: 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM (HKT)
Close: 4:00 PM (HKT)
Real Relative Strength Indicator### What is RRS (Real Relative Strength)?
RRS is a volatility-normalized relative strength indicator that shows you – in real time – whether your stock, crypto, or any asset is genuinely beating or lagging the broader market after adjusting for risk and volatility. Unlike the classic “price ÷ SPY” line that gets completely fooled by volatility regimes, RRS answers the only question that actually matters to professional traders:
“Is this ticker moving better (or worse) than the market on a risk-adjusted basis right now?”
It does this by measuring the excess momentum of your ticker versus a benchmark (SPY, QQQ, BTC, etc.) and then dividing that excess by the average volatility (ATR) of both instruments. The result is a clean, centered-around-zero oscillator that works the same way in calm markets, crash markets, or parabolic bull runs.
### How to Use the RRS Indicator (Aqua/Purple Area Version) in Practice
The indicator is deliberately simple to read once you know the rules:
Positive area (aqua) means genuine outperformance.
Negative area (purple) means genuine underperformance.
The farther from zero, the stronger the leadership or weakness.
#### Core Signals and How to Trade Them
- RRS crossing above zero → one of the highest-probability long signals in existence. The asset has just started outperforming the market on a risk-adjusted basis. Enter or add aggressively if price structure agrees.
- RRS crossing below zero → leadership is ending. Tighten stops, take partial or full profits, or flip short if you trade both sides.
- RRS above +2 (bright aqua area) → clear leadership. This is where the real money is made in bull markets. Trail stops, add on pullbacks, let winners run.
- RRS below –2 (bright purple area) → clear distribution or capitulation. Avoid new longs, consider short entries or protective puts.
- Extreme readings above +4 or below –4 (background tint appears) → rare, very high-conviction moves. Treat these like once-a-month opportunities.
- Divergence (not plotted here, but easy to spot visually): price making new highs while the aqua area is shrinking → distribution. Price making new lows while the purple area is shrinking → hidden buying and coming reversal.
#### Best Settings by Style and Asset Class
For stocks and ETFs: keep benchmark as SPY (or QQQ for tech-heavy names) and length 14–20 on daily/4H charts.
For crypto: change the benchmark to BTCUSD (or ETHUSD) immediately — otherwise the reading is meaningless. Length 10–14 works best on 1H–4H crypto charts because volatility is higher.
For day trading: drop length to 10–12 and use 15-minute or 5-minute charts. Signals are faster and still extremely clean.
#### Highest-Edge Setups (What Actually Prints Money)
- RRS crosses above zero while price is still below a major moving average (50 EMA, 200 SMA, etc.) → early leadership, often catches the exact bottom of a new leg up.
- RRS already deep aqua (+3 or higher) and price pulls back to support without RRS dropping below +1 → textbook add-on or re-entry zone.
- RRS deep purple and suddenly turns flat or starts curling up while price is still falling → hidden accumulation, usually the exact low tick.
That’s it. Master these few rules and the RRS becomes one of the most powerful edge tools you will ever use for rotation trading...
MACD Forecast Colorful [DiFlip]MACD Forecast Colorful
The Future of Predictive MACD — is one of the most advanced and customizable MACD indicators ever published on TradingView. Built on the classic MACD foundation, this upgraded version integrates statistical forecasting through linear regression to anticipate future movements — not just react to the past.
With a total of 22 fully configurable long and short entry conditions, visual enhancements, and full automation support, this indicator is designed for serious traders seeking an analytical edge.
⯁ Real-Time MACD Forecasting
For the first time, a public MACD script combines the classic structure of MACD with predictive analytics powered by linear regression. Instead of simply responding to current values, this tool projects the MACD line, signal line, and histogram n bars into the future, allowing you to trade with foresight rather than hindsight.
⯁ Fully Customizable
This indicator is built for flexibility. It includes 22 entry conditions, all of which are fully configurable. Each condition can be turned on/off, chained using AND/OR logic, and adapted to your trading model.
Whether you're building a rules-based quant system, automating alerts, or refining discretionary signals, MACD Forecast Colorful gives you full control over how signals are generated, displayed, and triggered.
⯁ With MACD Forecast Colorful, you can:
• Detect MACD crossovers before they happen.
• Anticipate trend reversals with greater precision.
• React earlier than traditional indicators.
• Gain a powerful edge in both discretionary and automated strategies.
• This isn’t just smarter MACD — it’s predictive momentum intelligence.
⯁ Scientifically Powered by Linear Regression
MACD Forecast Colorful is the first public MACD indicator to apply least-squares predictive modeling to MACD behavior — effectively introducing machine learning logic into a time-tested tool.
It uses statistical regression to analyze historical behavior of the MACD and project future trajectories. The result is a forward-shifted MACD forecast that can detect upcoming crossovers and divergences before they appear on the chart.
⯁ Linear Regression: Technical Foundation
Linear regression is a statistical method that models the relationship between a dependent variable (y) and one or more independent variables (x). The basic formula for simple linear regression is:
y = β₀ + β₁x + ε
Where:
y = predicted variable (e.g., future MACD value)
x = independent variable (e.g., bar index)
β₀ = intercept
β₁ = slope
ε = random error (residual)
The regression model calculates β₀ and β₁ using the least squares method, minimizing the sum of squared prediction errors to produce the best-fit line through historical values. This line is then extended forward, generating a forecast based on recent price momentum.
⯁ Least Squares Estimation
The regression coefficients are computed with the following formulas:
β₁ = Σ((xᵢ - x̄)(yᵢ - ȳ)) / Σ((xᵢ - x̄)²)
β₀ = ȳ - β₁x̄
Where:
Σ denotes summation; x̄ and ȳ are the means of x and y; and i ranges from 1 to n (number of observations). These equations produce the best linear unbiased estimator under the Gauss–Markov assumptions — constant variance (homoscedasticity) and a linear relationship between variables.
⯁ Regression in Machine Learning
Linear regression is a foundational model in supervised learning. Its ability to provide precise, explainable, and fast forecasts makes it critical in AI systems and quantitative analysis.
Applying linear regression to MACD forecasting is the equivalent of injecting artificial intelligence into one of the most widely used momentum tools in trading.
⯁ Visual Interpretation
Picture the MACD values over time like this:
Time →
MACD →
A regression line is fitted to recent MACD values, then projected forward n periods. The result is a predictive trajectory that can cross over the real MACD or signal line — offering an early-warning system for trend shifts and momentum changes.
The indicator plots both current MACD and forecasted MACD, allowing you to visually compare short-term future behavior against historical movement.
⯁ Scientific Concepts Used
Linear Regression: models the relationship between variables using a straight line.
Least Squares Method: minimizes squared prediction errors for best-fit.
Time-Series Forecasting: projects future data based on past patterns.
Supervised Learning: predictive modeling using labeled inputs.
Statistical Smoothing: filters noise to highlight trends.
⯁ Why This Indicator Is Revolutionary
First open-source MACD with real-time predictive modeling.
Scientifically grounded with linear regression logic.
Automatable through TradingView alerts and bots.
Smart signal generation using forecasted crossovers.
Highly customizable with 22 buy/sell conditions.
Enhanced visuals with background (bgcolor) and area fill (fill) support.
This isn’t just an update — it’s the next evolution of MACD forecasting.
⯁ Example of simple linear regression with one independent variable
This example demonstrates how a basic linear regression works when there is only one independent variable influencing the dependent variable. This type of model is used to identify a direct relationship between two variables.
⯁ In linear regression, observations (red) are considered the result of random deviations (green) from an underlying relationship (blue) between a dependent variable (y) and an independent variable (x)
This concept illustrates that sampled data points rarely align perfectly with the true trend line. Instead, each observed point represents the combination of the true underlying relationship and a random error component.
⯁ Visualizing heteroscedasticity in a scatterplot with 100 random fitted values using Matlab
Heteroscedasticity occurs when the variance of the errors is not constant across the range of fitted values. This visualization highlights how the spread of data can change unpredictably, which is an important factor in evaluating the validity of regression models.
⯁ The datasets in Anscombe’s quartet were designed to have nearly the same linear regression line (as well as nearly identical means, standard deviations, and correlations) but look very different when plotted
This classic example shows that summary statistics alone can be misleading. Even with identical numerical metrics, the datasets display completely different patterns, emphasizing the importance of visual inspection when interpreting a model.
⯁ Result of fitting a set of data points with a quadratic function
This example illustrates how a second-degree polynomial model can better fit certain datasets that do not follow a linear trend. The resulting curve reflects the true shape of the data more accurately than a straight line.
⯁ What is the MACD?
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical analysis indicator developed by Gerald Appel. It measures the relationship between two moving averages of a security’s price to identify changes in momentum, direction, and strength of a trend. The MACD is composed of three components: the MACD line, the signal line, and the histogram.
⯁ How to use the MACD?
The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA. A 9-period EMA of the MACD line, called the signal line, is then plotted on top of the MACD line. The MACD histogram represents the difference between the MACD line and the signal line.
Here are the primary signals generated by the MACD:
• Bullish Crossover: When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, indicating a potential buy signal.
• Bearish Crossover: When the MACD line crosses below the signal line, indicating a potential sell signal.
• Divergence: When the price of the security diverges from the MACD, suggesting a potential reversal.
• Overbought/Oversold Conditions: Indicated by the MACD line moving far away from the signal line, though this is less common than in oscillators like the RSI.
⯁ How to use MACD forecast?
The MACD Forecast is built on the same foundation as the classic MACD, but with predictive capabilities.
Step 1 — Spot Predicted Crossovers:
Watch for forecasted bullish or bearish crossovers. These signals anticipate when the MACD line will cross the signal line in the future, letting you prepare trades before the move.
Step 2 — Confirm with Histogram Projection:
Use the projected histogram to validate momentum direction. A rising histogram signals strengthening bullish momentum, while a falling projection points to weakening or bearish conditions.
Step 3 — Combine with Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Use forecasts across multiple timeframes to confirm signal strength (e.g., a 1h forecast aligned with a 4h forecast).
Step 4 — Set Entry Conditions & Automation:
Customize your buy/sell rules with the 20 forecast-based conditions and enable automation for bots or alerts.
Step 5 — Trade Ahead of the Market:
By preparing for future momentum shifts instead of reacting to the past, you’ll always stay one step ahead of lagging traders.
📈 BUY
🍟 Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars.
🍟 Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND or OR.
🍟 MACD > Signal Smoothing
🍟 MACD < Signal Smoothing
🍟 Histogram > 0
🍟 Histogram < 0
🍟 Histogram Positive
🍟 Histogram Negative
🍟 MACD > 0
🍟 MACD < 0
🍟 Signal > 0
🍟 Signal < 0
🍟 MACD > Histogram
🍟 MACD < Histogram
🍟 Signal > Histogram
🍟 Signal < Histogram
🍟 MACD (Crossover) Signal
🍟 MACD (Crossunder) Signal
🍟 MACD (Crossover) 0
🍟 MACD (Crossunder) 0
🍟 Signal (Crossover) 0
🍟 Signal (Crossunder) 0
🔮 MACD (Crossover) Signal Forecast
🔮 MACD (Crossunder) Signal Forecast
📉 SELL
🍟 Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars.
🍟 Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND or OR.
🍟 MACD > Signal Smoothing
🍟 MACD < Signal Smoothing
🍟 Histogram > 0
🍟 Histogram < 0
🍟 Histogram Positive
🍟 Histogram Negative
🍟 MACD > 0
🍟 MACD < 0
🍟 Signal > 0
🍟 Signal < 0
🍟 MACD > Histogram
🍟 MACD < Histogram
🍟 Signal > Histogram
🍟 Signal < Histogram
🍟 MACD (Crossover) Signal
🍟 MACD (Crossunder) Signal
🍟 MACD (Crossover) 0
🍟 MACD (Crossunder) 0
🍟 Signal (Crossover) 0
🍟 Signal (Crossunder) 0
🔮 MACD (Crossover) Signal Forecast
🔮 MACD (Crossunder) Signal Forecast
🤖 Automation
All BUY and SELL conditions can be automated using TradingView alerts. Every configurable condition can trigger alerts suitable for fully automated or semi-automated strategies.
⯁ Unique Features
Linear Regression: (Forecast)
Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars
Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND/OR
Table of Conditions: BUY/SELL
Conditions Label: BUY/SELL
Plot Labels in the graph above: BUY/SELL
Automate & Monitor Signals/Alerts: BUY/SELL
Background Colors: "bgcolor"
Background Colors: "fill"
Linear Regression (Forecast)
Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars
Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND/OR
Table of Conditions: BUY/SELL
Conditions Label: BUY/SELL
Plot Labels in the graph above: BUY/SELL
Automate & Monitor Signals/Alerts: BUY/SELL
Background Colors: "bgcolor"
Background Colors: "fill"
Goal Setting Strategies Viprasol# 🎯 Goal Setting Strategies Viprasol
A powerful goal tracking tool designed for disciplined traders who want to monitor their trading objectives, milestones, and progress directly on their charts.
## ✨ KEY FEATURES
### 📊 Flexible Goal Management
- Track anywhere from 1 to 20 trading goals simultaneously
- Adjustable goal count via simple input slider
- Each goal has its own unique emoji identifier
- Real-time progress counter
### ✅ Visual Tracking System
- Interactive checkbox system for goal completion
- Clear visual indicators (✅ completed, ⬜️ pending)
- Customizable goal names and descriptions
- Dynamic progress display
### 🎨 Full Customization
- **4 Position Options**: Top Left, Top Right, Bottom Left, Bottom Right
- **5 Font Sizes**: Tiny, Small, Normal, Large, Huge (optimized for all screen sizes)
- **Custom Colors**: Header, labels, background, achievement text
- **Premium Styling**: Modern cyber-themed design with professional appearance
### 💡 Perfect For:
- Daily/Weekly trading goal tracking
- Risk management milestones
- Profit target monitoring
- Trading plan compliance
- Personal development objectives
- Learning milestones
## 🔧 HOW TO USE
1. **Set Your Primary Goal**: Enter your main objective in "Primary Goal" field
2. **Choose Goal Count**: Select how many goals you want (1-20)
3. **Name Your Goals**: Customize each goal name in the "Goal Definitions" section
4. **Track Progress**: Check off goals as you complete them
5. **Customize Display**: Adjust colors, sizes, and position to match your chart setup
## 📐 INPUT GROUPS
### 🎯 Viprasol Goal Configuration
- Primary Goal Name
- Number of Goals (1-20)
### 📋 Goal Definitions
- All 20 goals with individual names and checkboxes
- Only enabled goals (based on count) will display
### 🌈 Premium Styling
- Goal Header Color
- Label Color
- Panel Background Color
- Achievement Color
- Header Font Size
- Milestone Font Size (Tiny/Small optimized for space)
### 📍 Elite Display
- Dashboard Position selector
## 💎 UNIQUE FEATURES
- **Space Efficient**: Tiny and Small font options for compact displays
- **Scalable**: Grow from 1 goal to 20 as your needs evolve
- **Non-Intrusive**: Overlay indicator that doesn't interfere with price action
- **Professional Design**: Clean, modern interface with cyber aesthetic
## 🎓 USE CASES
**Day Traders**: Track daily profit targets, trade count limits, max loss thresholds
**Swing Traders**: Monitor weekly/monthly goals, position management rules
**New Traders**: Learning milestones, strategy development checkpoints
**Experienced Traders**: Advanced risk management, portfolio objectives
## ⚙️ TECHNICAL DETAILS
- Version: Pine Script v5
- Type: Overlay Indicator
- Max Labels: 500
- Table-based display system
- No repainting
- Lightweight performance
## 🚀 GETTING STARTED
1. Add indicator to your chart
2. Set "Number of Goals" to your desired count (start small, scale up)
3. Customize goal names
4. Check boxes as you achieve goals
5. Watch your progress build!
## 📊 DISPLAY OPTIMIZATION
- Use "Tiny" or "Small" for maximum goals on small screens
- Use "Normal" or "Large" for standard monitors
- Use "Huge" for presentation or large displays
- Adjust position to avoid chart overlap
## 🎯 TRADING DISCIPLINE
This tool helps reinforce:
- Goal-oriented trading mindset
- Progress tracking accountability
- Milestone celebration
- Structured approach to trading development
---
**© viprasol**
*Designed for traders who take their goals seriously.*
⏰Forex Market Clock Table (DST Auto)⏰ Forex Market Clock Table (DST Auto)
Keep track of key forex session times with this clean, real-time table showing local time, market status (open/closed), and automatic Daylight Saving Time (DST) adjustments for Sydney, Tokyo, London, and New York. Displays countdowns to session open/close and highlights weekends. Fully customizable position, colors, and text size—perfect for multi-session traders.
Fibonacci Projection with Volume & Delta Profile (Zeiierman)█ Overview
Fibonacci Projection with Volume & Delta Profile (Zeiierman) blends classic Fibonacci swing analysis with modern volume-flow reading to create a unified, projection-based market framework. The indicator automatically detects the latest swing high and swing low, builds a complete Fibonacci structure, and then projects future extension targets with clear visual pathways.
What makes this tool unique is the integration of two volume-based systems directly into the Fibonacci structure. A Fib-aligned Volume Profile shows how bullish and bearish volume accumulated inside the swing range, while a separate Delta Profile reveals the imbalance of buy–sell pressure inside each Fibonacci interval. Together, these elements transform the standard Fibonacci tool into a multi-dimensional structural and volume-flow map.
█ How It Works
The indicator first detects the most recent swing high and swing low using the Period setting. That swing defines the Fibonacci range, from which the script draws retracement levels (0.236–0.786) and builds a forward projection path using the chosen Projection Level and a 1.272 extension.
Along this path, it draws projection lines, target boxes, and percentage labels that show how far each projected leg extends relative to the previous one.
Inside the same swing range, the script builds a Fib-based Volume Profile by splitting price into rows and assigning each bar’s volume as bullish (close > open) or bearish (close ≤ open). On top of that, it calculates a Volume Delta Profile between each pair of fib levels, showing whether buyers or sellers dominated that band and how strong that imbalance was.
█ How to Use
This tool helps traders quickly understand market structure and where the price may be heading next. The projection engine shows the most likely future targets, highlights strong or weak legs in the move, and updates automatically whenever a new swing forms. This ensures you always see the most relevant and up-to-date projection path.
The Fib Volume Profile shows where volume supported the move and where it did not. Thick bullish buckets reveal zones where buyers stepped in aggressively, often becoming retestable support. Thick bearish buckets highlight zones of resistance or rejection, particularly useful if projected levels align with prior liquidity.
The Delta Profile adds a second dimension to volume reading by showing where buy–sell pressure was truly imbalanced. A projected Fibonacci target that aligns with a strong bullish delta, for example, may suggest continuation. A projection into a band dominated by bearish delta may warn of reversal or hesitation.
█ Settings
Period – bars used to determine swing high/low
Projection Level – chosen Fib ratio for projection path
-----------------
Disclaimer
The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
SCOTTGO - Day Trade Stock Quote V4This Pine Script indicator, titled "SCOTTGO - Day Trade Stock Quote V4," is a comprehensive, customizable dashboard designed for active traders. It acts as a single, centralized reference point, displaying essential financial and technical data directly on your chart in a compact table overlay.
📊 Key Information Provided
The indicator is split into sections, aggregating various critical data points to provide a holistic picture of the stock's current state and momentum:
1. Ownership & Short Flow
This section provides fundamental context and short-interest data:
Market Cap, Shares Float, and Shares Outstanding: Key figures on the company's size and publicly tradable shares.
Short Volume %: Indicates the percentage of trading activity driven by short sellers.
Daily Change %: Shows the day's price movement relative to the previous close.
2. Price & Volatility
This tracks historical and immediate price levels:
Previous Close, Day High/Low: Key daily reference prices.
52-Week High/Low: Important long-term boundaries.
Earnings Date: A crucial fundamental date (currently displayed as a placeholder).
3. Momentum & Volume
These metrics are essential for understanding intraday buying and selling pressure:
Volume & Average Volume: The current trade volume compared to its historical average.
Relative Volume (RVOL): Measures how much volume is currently trading compared to the average rate for that time period (shown for both Daily and 5-Minute rates).
Volume Buzz (%): A percentage representation of how much current volume exceeds or falls below the average.
ADR % & ATR %: Measures of volatility.
RSI, U/D Ratio, and P/E Ratio: Momentum and valuation indicators.
4. Context
This provides background information on the security:
Includes the Symbol, Exchange, Industry, and Sector (note: some fields use placeholder data as this information is not always available via Pine Script).
⚙️ Customization
The dashboard is highly customizable via the indicator settings:
You can control the visibility of every single metric using the Section toggles.
You can change the position (Top Left, Top Right, etc.), size, and colors of the entire table.
In summary, this script is a powerful tool for day traders who need to monitor a large number of fundamental, technical, and volatility metrics simultaneously without cluttering the main chart area.
NYSE CME Market Session Clock This indicator can only work on short-term timeframes, since the time before the opening and before the closing of the session is updated only with the appearance of a new candle.
FRAN CRASH PLAY RULESPurpose
It creates a fixed information panel in the top right corner of your chart that shows the "FRAN CRASH PLAY RULES" - a checklist of criteria for identifying potential crash play setups.
Key Features
Display Panel:
Shows 5 trading rules as bullet points
Permanently visible in the top right corner
Stays fixed while you scroll or zoom the chart
Current Rules Displayed:
DYNAMIC 3 TO 5 LEG RUN
NEAR VERTICAL ACCELERATION
FINAL BAR OF THE RUN UP MUST BE THE BIGGEST
3 FINGER SPREAD / DUAL SPACE
ATLEAST 2 OF 5 CRITERIA NEEDS TO HIT
Customization Options:
Editable Text - Change any of the 5 rules through the settings
Text Color - Adjust the color of the text
Text Size - Choose from tiny, small, normal, large, or huge
Background Color - Customize the panel background and transparency
Frame Color - Change the border color
Show/Hide Frame - Toggle the border on or off
Use Case
This indicator serves as a constant visual reminder of your trading strategy criteria, helping you stay disciplined and only take trades that meet your specific crash play requirements. It's essentially a "cheat sheet" that lives on your chart so you don't have to memorize or look elsewhere for your trading rules.
VB Finviz-style MTF Screener📊 VB Multi-Timeframe Stock Screener (Daily + 4H + 1H)
A structured, high-signal stock screener that blends Daily fundamentals, 4H trend confirmation, and 1H entry timing to surface strong trading opportunities with institutional discipline.
🟦 1. Daily Screener — Core Stock Selection
All fundamental and structural filters run strictly on Daily data for maximum stability and signal quality.
Daily filters include:
📈 Average Volume & Relative Volume
💲 Minimum Price Threshold
📊 Beta vs SPY
🏢 Market Cap (Billions)
🔥 ATR Liquidity Filter
🧱 Float Requirements
📘 Price Above Daily SMA50
🚀 Minimum Gap-Up Condition
This layer acts like a Finviz-style engine, identifying stocks worth trading before momentum or timing is considered.
🟩 2. 4H Trend Confirmation — Momentum Check
Once a stock passes the Daily screen, the 4-hour timeframe validates trend strength:
🔼 Price above 4H MA
📈 MA pointing upward
This removes structurally good stocks that are not in a healthy trend.
🟧 3. 1H Entry Alignment — Timing Layer
The Hourly timeframe refines near-term timing:
🔼 Price above 1H MA
📉 Short-term upward movement detected
This step ensures the stock isn’t just good on paper—it’s moving now.
🧪 MTF Debug Table (Your Transparency Engine)
A live diagnostic table shows:
All Daily values
All 4H checks
All 1H checks
Exact PASS/FAIL per condition
Perfect for tuning thresholds or understanding why a ticker qualifies or fails.
🎯 Who This Screener Is For
Swing traders
Momentum/trend traders
Systematic and rules-based traders
Traders who want clean, multi-timeframe alignment
By combining Daily fundamentals, 4H trend structure, and 1H momentum, this screener filters the market down to the stocks that are strong, aligned, and ready.
Weighted KDE Mode🙏🏻 The ‘ultimate’ typical value estimator, for the highest computational cost @ time complexity O(n^2). I am not afraid to say: this is the last resort BFG9000 you can ‘ever’ get to make dem market demons kneel before y’all
Quickguide
pls read it, you won’t find it anywhere else in open access
When to use:
If current market activity is so crazy || things on your charts are really so bad (contaminated data && (data has very heavy tails || very pronounced peak)), the only option left is to use the peak (mode) of Kernel Density Estimate , instead of median not even mentioning mean. So when WMA won’t help, when WPNR won’t help, you need this thing.
Setting it up:
Interval: choose what u need, you can use usual moving windows, but I also added yearly and session anchors alike in old VWAP (always prefer 24h instead of Session if your plan allows). Other options like cumulative window are also there.
Parameters: this script ain't no joke, it needs time to make calculations, so I added a setting to calculate only for the last N bars (when “starting at bar N” is put on 0). If it’s not zero it acts as a starting point after which the calculations happen (useful for backtesting). Other parameters keep em as they are, keep student5 kernel , turn off appropriate weights if u apply it to other than chart data, on other studies etc.
But instead of listening to me just experiment with parameters and see what they change, would take 5 mins max
Been always saying that VWAP is ish, not time-aware etc, volume info is incorporated in a lil bit wrong way… So I decided not just to fix VWAP (you can do it yourself in 5 mins), but instead to drop there the Ultimate xD typical value estimator that is ever possible to do. Time aware, volume / inferred volume aware, resistant to all kinds of BS. This is your shieldwall.
How it works:
You can easily do a weighted kernel density estimation, in our case including temporal and intensity information while accumulating densities. Here are some details worth mentioning about the thing:
Kernels are raw (not unit variance), that’s easier to work with later.
h_constants for each kernel were calculated ^^ given that ^^ with python mpmath module with high decimal precision.
In bandwidth calculation instead of using empirical standard deviation as a scaler, I use... ta.range(src, len) / math.sqrt(12)
...that takes data range and converts it to standard deviation, assuming data is uniformly distributed. That’s exactly what we need: a scaler that is coherent with the KDE, that has nothing to do with stdevs, as the kernels except for gaussian ones (that we don’t even need to use). More importantly, if u take multiple windows and see over time which distro they approach on the long term, that would be the uniform one (not the normal one as many think). Sometimes windows are multimodal, sometimes Laplace like etc, so in general all together they are uniform ish.
The one and only kernel you really need is Student t with v = 5 , for the use case I highlighted in the first part of the post for TV users. It’s as far as u can get until ish becomes crazy like undefined variance etc. It has the highest kurtosis = 9 of all distros, perfect for the real use case I mentioned. Otherwise, you don’t even need KDE 4 real, but still I included other senseful kernels for comparison or in case I am trippin there.
Btw, don’t believe in all that hype about Epanechnikov kernel which in essence is made from beta distribution with alpha = beta = 2, idk why folk call it with that weird name, it’s beta2 kernel. Yes on papers it really minimises AMISE (that’s how I calculated h constants for all dem kernels in the script), but for really crazy data (proper use case for us), it ain't provides even ‘closely’ compared with student5 kernel. Not much else to add.
Shout out to @RicardoSantos for inspiration, I saw your KDE script a long time ago brotha, finna got my hands on it.
∞
Hurst Exponent - Detrended Fluctuation AnalysisIn stochastic processes, chaos theory and time series analysis, detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) is a method for determining the statistical self-affinity of a signal. It is useful for analyzing time series that appear to be long-memory processes and noise.
█ OVERVIEW
We have introduced the concept of Hurst Exponent in our previous open indicator Hurst Exponent (Simple). It is an indicator that measures market state from autocorrelation. However, we apply a more advanced and accurate way to calculate Hurst Exponent rather than simple approximation. Therefore, we recommend using this version of Hurst Exponent over our previous publication going forward. The method we used here is called detrended fluctuation analysis. (For folks that are not interested in the math behind the calculation, feel free to skip to "features" and "how to use" section. However, it is recommended that you read it all to gain a better understanding of the mathematical reasoning).
█ Detrend Fluctuation Analysis
Detrended Fluctuation Analysis was first introduced by by Peng, C.K. (Original Paper) in order to measure the long-range power-law correlations in DNA sequences . DFA measures the scaling-behavior of the second moment-fluctuations, the scaling exponent is a generalization of Hurst exponent.
The traditional way of measuring Hurst exponent is the rescaled range method. However DFA provides the following benefits over the traditional rescaled range method (RS) method:
• Can be applied to non-stationary time series. While asset returns are generally stationary, DFA can measure Hurst more accurately in the instances where they are non-stationary.
• According the the asymptotic distribution value of DFA and RS, the latter usually overestimates Hurst exponent (even after Anis- Llyod correction) resulting in the expected value of RS Hurst being close to 0.54, instead of the 0.5 that it should be. Therefore it's harder to determine the autocorrelation based on the expected value. The expected value is significantly closer to 0.5 making that threshold much more useful, using the DFA method on the Hurst Exponent (HE).
• Lastly, DFA requires lower sample size relative to the RS method. While the RS method generally requires thousands of observations to reduce the variance of HE, DFA only needs a sample size greater than a hundred to accomplish the above mentioned.
█ Calculation
DFA is a modified root-mean-squares (RMS) analysis of a random walk. In short, DFA computes the RMS error of linear fits over progressively larger bins (non-overlapped “boxes” of similar size) of an integrated time series.
Our signal time series is the log returns. First we subtract the mean from the log return to calculate the demeaned returns. Then, we calculate the cumulative sum of demeaned returns resulting in the cumulative sum being mean centered and we can use the DFA method on this. The subtraction of the mean eliminates the “global trend” of the signal. The advantage of applying scaling analysis to the signal profile instead of the signal, allows the original signal to be non-stationary when needed. (For example, this process converts an i.i.d. white noise process into a random walk.)
We slice the cumulative sum into windows of equal space and run linear regression on each window to measure the linear trend. After we conduct each linear regression. We detrend the series by deducting the linear regression line from the cumulative sum in each windows. The fluctuation is the difference between cumulative sum and regression.
We use different windows sizes on the same cumulative sum series. The window sizes scales are log spaced. Eg: powers of 2, 2,4,8,16... This is where the scale free measurements come in, how we measure the fractal nature and self similarity of the time series, as well as how the well smaller scale represent the larger scale.
As the window size decreases, we uses more regression lines to measure the trend. Therefore, the fitness of regression should be better with smaller fluctuation. It allows one to zoom into the “picture” to see the details. The linear regression is like rulers. If you use more rulers to measure the smaller scale details you will get a more precise measurement.
The exponent we are measuring here is to determine the relationship between the window size and fitness of regression (the rate of change). The more complex the time series are the more it will depend on decreasing window sizes (using more linear regression lines to measure). The less complex or the more trend in the time series, it will depend less. The fitness is calculated by the average of root mean square errors (RMS) of regression from each window.
Root mean Square error is calculated by square root of the sum of the difference between cumulative sum and regression. The following chart displays average RMS of different window sizes. As the chart shows, values for smaller window sizes shows more details due to higher complexity of measurements.
The last step is to measure the exponent. In order to measure the power law exponent. We measure the slope on the log-log plot chart. The x axis is the log of the size of windows, the y axis is the log of the average RMS. We run a linear regression through the plotted points. The slope of regression is the exponent. It's easy to see the relationship between RMS and window size on the chart. Larger RMS equals less fitness of the regression. We know the RMS will increase (fitness will decrease) as we increases window size (use less regressions to measure), we focus on the rate of RMS increasing (how fast) as window size increases.
If the slope is < 0.5, It means the rate of of increase in RMS is small when window size increases. Therefore the fit is much better when it's measured by a large number of linear regression lines. So the series is more complex. (Mean reversion, negative autocorrelation).
If the slope is > 0.5, It means the rate of increase in RMS is larger when window sizes increases. Therefore even when window size is large, the larger trend can be measured well by a small number of regression lines. Therefore the series has a trend with positive autocorrelation.
If the slope = 0.5, It means the series follows a random walk.
█ FEATURES
• Sample Size is the lookback period for calculation. Even though DFA requires a lower sample size than RS, a sample size larger > 50 is recommended for accurate measurement.
• When a larger sample size is used (for example = 1000 lookback length), the loading speed may be slower due to a longer calculation. Date Range is used to limit numbers of historical calculation bars. When loading speed is too slow, change the data range "all" into numbers of weeks/days/hours to reduce loading time. (Credit to allanster)
• “show filter” option applies a smoothing moving average to smooth the exponent.
• Log scale is my work around for dynamic log space scaling. Traditionally the smallest log space for bars is power of 2. It requires at least 10 points for an accurate regression, resulting in the minimum lookback to be 1024. I made some changes to round the fractional log space into integer bars requiring the said log space to be less than 2.
• For a more accurate calculation a larger "Base Scale" and "Max Scale" should be selected. However, when the sample size is small, a larger value would cause issues. Therefore, a general rule to be followed is: A larger "Base Scale" and "Max Scale" should be selected for a larger the sample size. It is recommended for the user to try and choose a larger scale if increasing the value doesn't cause issues.
The following chart shows the change in value using various scales. As shown, sometimes increasing the value makes the value itself messy and overshoot.
When using the lowest scale (4,2), the value seems stable. When we increase the scale to (8,2), the value is still alright. However, when we increase it to (8,4), it begins to look messy. And when we increase it to (16,4), it starts overshooting. Therefore, (8,2) seems to be optimal for our use.
█ How to Use
Similar to Hurst Exponent (Simple). 0.5 is a level for determine long term memory.
• In the efficient market hypothesis, market follows a random walk and Hurst exponent should be 0.5. When Hurst Exponent is significantly different from 0.5, the market is inefficient.
• When Hurst Exponent is > 0.5. Positive Autocorrelation. Market is Trending. Positive returns tend to be followed by positive returns and vice versa.
• Hurst Exponent is < 0.5. Negative Autocorrelation. Market is Mean reverting. Positive returns trends to follow by negative return and vice versa.
However, we can't really tell if the Hurst exponent value is generated by random chance by only looking at the 0.5 level. Even if we measure a pure random walk, the Hurst Exponent will never be exactly 0.5, it will be close like 0.506 but not equal to 0.5. That's why we need a level to tell us if Hurst Exponent is significant.
So we also computed the 95% confidence interval according to Monte Carlo simulation. The confidence level adjusts itself by sample size. When Hurst Exponent is above the top or below the bottom confidence level, the value of Hurst exponent has statistical significance. The efficient market hypothesis is rejected and market has significant inefficiency.
The state of market is painted in different color as the following chart shows. The users can also tell the state from the table displayed on the right.
An important point is that Hurst Value only represents the market state according to the past value measurement. Which means it only tells you the market state now and in the past. If Hurst Exponent on sample size 100 shows significant trend, it means according to the past 100 bars, the market is trending significantly. It doesn't mean the market will continue to trend. It's not forecasting market state in the future.
However, this is also another way to use it. The market is not always random and it is not always inefficient, the state switches around from time to time. But there's one pattern, when the market stays inefficient for too long, the market participants see this and will try to take advantage of it. Therefore, the inefficiency will be traded away. That's why Hurst exponent won't stay in significant trend or mean reversion too long. When it's significant the market participants see that as well and the market adjusts itself back to normal.
The Hurst Exponent can be used as a mean reverting oscillator itself. In a liquid market, the value tends to return back inside the confidence interval after significant moves(In smaller markets, it could stay inefficient for a long time). So when Hurst Exponent shows significant values, the market has just entered significant trend or mean reversion state. However, when it stays outside of confidence interval for too long, it would suggest the market might be closer to the end of trend or mean reversion instead.
Larger sample size makes the Hurst Exponent Statistics more reliable. Therefore, if the user want to know if long term memory exist in general on the selected ticker, they can use a large sample size and maximize the log scale. Eg: 1024 sample size, scale (16,4).
Following Chart is Bitcoin on Daily timeframe with 1024 lookback. It suggests the market for bitcoin tends to have long term memory in general. It generally has significant trend and is more inefficient at it's early stage.
Fast Autocorrelation Estimator█ Overview:
The Fast ACF and PACF Estimation indicator efficiently calculates the autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) using an online implementation. It helps traders identify patterns and relationships in financial time series data, enabling them to optimize their trading strategies and make better-informed decisions in the markets.
█ Concepts:
Autocorrelation, also known as serial correlation, is the correlation of a signal with a delayed copy of itself as a function of delay.
This indicator displays autocorrelation based on lag number. The autocorrelation is not displayed based over time on the x-axis. It's based on the lag number which ranges from 1 to 30. The calculations can be done with "Log Returns", "Absolute Log Returns" or "Original Source" (the price of the asset displayed on the chart).
When calculating autocorrelation, the resulting value will range from +1 to -1, in line with the traditional correlation statistic. An autocorrelation of +1 represents a perfect correlation (an increase seen in one time series leads to a proportionate increase in the other time series). An autocorrelation of -1, on the other hand, represents a perfect inverse correlation (an increase seen in one time series results in a proportionate decrease in the other time series). Lag number indicates which historical data point is autocorrelated. For example, if lag 3 shows significant autocorrelation, it means current data is influenced by the data three bars ago.
The Fast Online Estimation of ACF and PACF Indicator is a powerful tool for analyzing the linear relationship between a time series and its lagged values in TradingView. The indicator implements an online estimation of the Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and the Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) up to 30 lags, providing a real-time assessment of the underlying dependencies in your time series data. The Autocorrelation Function (ACF) measures the linear relationship between a time series and its lagged values, capturing both direct and indirect dependencies. The Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) isolates the direct dependency between the time series and a specific lag while removing the effect of any indirect dependencies.
This distinction is crucial in understanding the underlying relationships in time series data and making more informed decisions based on those relationships. For example, let's consider a time series with three variables: A, B, and C. Suppose that A has a direct relationship with B, B has a direct relationship with C, but A and C do not have a direct relationship. The ACF between A and C will capture the indirect relationship between them through B, while the PACF will show no significant relationship between A and C, as it accounts for the indirect dependency through B. Meaning that when ACF is significant at for lag 5, the dependency detected could be caused by an observation that came in between, and PACF accounts for that. This indicator leverages the Fast Moments algorithm to efficiently calculate autocorrelations, making it ideal for analyzing large datasets or real-time data streams. By using the Fast Moments algorithm, the indicator can quickly update ACF and PACF values as new data points arrive, reducing the computational load and ensuring timely analysis. The PACF is derived from the ACF using the Durbin-Levinson algorithm, which helps in isolating the direct dependency between a time series and its lagged values, excluding the influence of other intermediate lags.
█ How to Use the Indicator:
Interpreting autocorrelation values can provide valuable insights into the market behavior and potential trading strategies.
When applying autocorrelation to log returns, and a specific lag shows a high positive autocorrelation, it suggests that the time series tends to move in the same direction over that lag period. In this case, a trader might consider using a momentum-based strategy to capitalize on the continuation of the current trend. On the other hand, if a specific lag shows a high negative autocorrelation, it indicates that the time series tends to reverse its direction over that lag period. In this situation, a trader might consider using a mean-reversion strategy to take advantage of the expected reversal in the market.
ACF of log returns:
Absolute returns are often used to as a measure of volatility. There is usually significant positive autocorrelation in absolute returns. We will often see an exponential decay of autocorrelation in volatility. This means that current volatility is dependent on historical volatility and the effect slowly dies off as the lag increases. This effect shows the property of "volatility clustering". Which means large changes tend to be followed by large changes, of either sign, and small changes tend to be followed by small changes.
ACF of absolute log returns:
Autocorrelation in price is always significantly positive and has an exponential decay. This predictably positive and relatively large value makes the autocorrelation of price (not returns) generally less useful.
ACF of price:
█ Significance:
The significance of a correlation metric tells us whether we should pay attention to it. In this script, we use 95% confidence interval bands that adjust to the size of the sample. If the observed correlation at a specific lag falls within the confidence interval, we consider it not significant and the data to be random or IID (identically and independently distributed). This means that we can't confidently say that the correlation reflects a real relationship, rather than just random chance. However, if the correlation is outside of the confidence interval, we can state with 95% confidence that there is an association between the lagged values. In other words, the correlation is likely to reflect a meaningful relationship between the variables, rather than a coincidence. A significant difference in either ACF or PACF can provide insights into the underlying structure of the time series data and suggest potential strategies for traders. By understanding these complex patterns, traders can better tailor their strategies to capitalize on the observed dependencies in the data, which can lead to improved decision-making in the financial markets.
Significant ACF but not significant PACF: This might indicate the presence of a moving average (MA) component in the time series. A moving average component is a pattern where the current value of the time series is influenced by a weighted average of past values. In this case, the ACF would show significant correlations over several lags, while the PACF would show significance only at the first few lags and then quickly decay.
Significant PACF but not significant ACF: This might indicate the presence of an autoregressive (AR) component in the time series. An autoregressive component is a pattern where the current value of the time series is influenced by a linear combination of past values at specific lags.
Often we find both significant ACF and PACF, in that scenario simply and AR or MA model might not be sufficient and a more complex model such as ARMA or ARIMA can be used.
█ Features:
Source selection: User can choose either 'Log Returns' , 'Absolute Returns' or 'Original Source' for the input data.
Autocorrelation Selection: User can choose either 'ACF' or 'PACF' for the plot selection.
Plot Selection: User can choose either 'Autocorrelarrogram' or 'Historical Autocorrelation' for plotting the historical autocorrelation at a specified lag.
Max Lag: User can select the maximum number of lags to plot.
Precision: User can set the number of decimal points to display in the plot.
Expected Move BandsExpected move is the amount that an asset is predicted to increase or decrease from its current price, based on the current levels of volatility.
In this model, we assume asset price follows a log-normal distribution and the log return follows a normal distribution.
Note: Normal distribution is just an assumption, it's not the real distribution of return
Settings:
"Estimation Period Selection" is for selecting the period we want to construct the prediction interval.
For "Current Bar", the interval is calculated based on the data of the previous bar close. Therefore changes in the current price will have little effect on the range. What current bar means is that the estimated range is for when this bar close. E.g., If the Timeframe on 4 hours and 1 hour has passed, the interval is for how much time this bar has left, in this case, 3 hours.
For "Future Bars", the interval is calculated based on the current close. Therefore the range will be very much affected by the change in the current price. If the current price moves up, the range will also move up, vice versa. Future Bars is estimating the range for the period at least one bar ahead.
There are also other source selections based on high low.
Time setting is used when "Future Bars" is chosen for the period. The value in time means how many bars ahead of the current bar the range is estimating. When time = 1, it means the interval is constructing for 1 bar head. E.g., If the timeframe is on 4 hours, then it's estimating the next 4 hours range no matter how much time has passed in the current bar.
Note: It's probably better to use "probability cone" for visual presentation when time > 1
Volatility Models :
Sample SD: traditional sample standard deviation, most commonly used, use (n-1) period to adjust the bias
Parkinson: Uses High/ Low to estimate volatility, assumes continuous no gap, zero mean no drift, 5 times more efficient than Close to Close
Garman Klass: Uses OHLC volatility, zero drift, no jumps, about 7 times more efficient
Yangzhang Garman Klass Extension: Added jump calculation in Garman Klass, has the same value as Garman Klass on markets with no gaps.
about 8 x efficient
Rogers: Uses OHLC, Assume non-zero mean volatility, handles drift, does not handle jump 8 x efficient
EWMA: Exponentially Weighted Volatility. Weight recently volatility more, more reactive volatility better in taking account of volatility autocorrelation and cluster.
YangZhang: Uses OHLC, combines Rogers and Garmand Klass, handles both drift and jump, 14 times efficient, alpha is the constant to weight rogers volatility to minimize variance.
Median absolute deviation: It's a more direct way of measuring volatility. It measures volatility without using Standard deviation. The MAD used here is adjusted to be an unbiased estimator.
Volatility Period is the sample size for variance estimation. A longer period makes the estimation range more stable less reactive to recent price. Distribution is more significant on a larger sample size. A short period makes the range more responsive to recent price. Might be better for high volatility clusters.
Standard deviations:
Standard Deviation One shows the estimated range where the closing price will be about 68% of the time.
Standard Deviation two shows the estimated range where the closing price will be about 95% of the time.
Standard Deviation three shows the estimated range where the closing price will be about 99.7% of the time.
Note: All these probabilities are based on the normal distribution assumption for returns. It's the estimated probability, not the actual probability.
Manually Entered Standard Deviation shows the range of any entered standard deviation. The probability of that range will be presented on the panel.
People usually assume the mean of returns to be zero. To be more accurate, we can consider the drift in price from calculating the geometric mean of returns. Drift happens in the long run, so short lookback periods are not recommended. Assuming zero mean is recommended when time is not greater than 1.
When we are estimating the future range for time > 1, we typically assume constant volatility and the returns to be independent and identically distributed. We scale the volatility in term of time to get future range. However, when there's autocorrelation in returns( when returns are not independent), the assumption fails to take account of this effect. Volatility scaled with autocorrelation is required when returns are not iid. We use an AR(1) model to scale the first-order autocorrelation to adjust the effect. Returns typically don't have significant autocorrelation. Adjustment for autocorrelation is not usually needed. A long length is recommended in Autocorrelation calculation.
Note: The significance of autocorrelation can be checked on an ACF indicator.
ACF
The multimeframe option enables people to use higher period expected move on the lower time frame. People should only use time frame higher than the current time frame for the input. An error warning will appear when input Tf is lower. The input format is multiplier * time unit. E.g. : 1D
Unit: M for months, W for Weeks, D for Days, integers with no unit for minutes (E.g. 240 = 240 minutes). S for Seconds.
Smoothing option is using a filter to smooth out the range. The filter used here is John Ehler's supersmoother. It's an advance smoothing technique that gets rid of aliasing noise. It affects is similar to a simple moving average with half the lookback length but smoother and has less lag.
Note: The range here after smooth no long represent the probability
Panel positions can be adjusted in the settings.
X position adjusts the horizontal position of the panel. Higher X moves panel to the right and lower X moves panel to the left.
Y position adjusts the vertical position of the panel. Higher Y moves panel up and lower Y moves panel down.
Step line display changes the style of the bands from line to step line. Step line is recommended because it gets rid of the directional bias of slope of expected move when displaying the bands.
Warnings:
People should not blindly trust the probability. They should be aware of the risk evolves by using the normal distribution assumption. The real return has skewness and high kurtosis. While skewness is not very significant, the high kurtosis should be noticed. The Real returns have much fatter tails than the normal distribution, which also makes the peak higher. This property makes the tail ranges such as range more than 2SD highly underestimate the actual range and the body such as 1 SD slightly overestimate the actual range. For ranges more than 2SD, people shouldn't trust them. They should beware of extreme events in the tails.
Different volatility models provide different properties if people are interested in the accuracy and the fit of expected move, they can try expected move occurrence indicator. (The result also demonstrate the previous point about the drawback of using normal distribution assumption).
Expected move Occurrence Test
The prediction interval is only for the closing price, not wicks. It only estimates the probability of the price closing at this level, not in between. E.g., If 1 SD range is 100 - 200, the price can go to 80 or 230 intrabar, but if the bar close within 100 - 200 in the end. It's still considered a 68% one standard deviation move.
