Grid Like StrategyIt is possible to use progressive position sizing in order to recover from past losses, a well-known position sizing system being the "martingale", which consists of doubling your position size after a loss, this allows you to recover any previous losses in a losing streak + winning an extra. This system has seen a lot of attention from the trading community (mostly from beginners), and many strategies have been designed around the martingale, one of them being "grid trading strategies".
While such strategies often shows promising results on paper, they are often subjects to many frictions during live trading that makes them totally unusable and dangerous to the trader. The motivations behind posting such a strategy isn't to glorify such systems, but rather to present the problems behind them, many users come to me with their ideas and glorious ways to make money, sometimes they present strategies using the martingale, and it is important to present the flaws of this methodology rather than blindly saying "you shouldn't use it".
Strategy Settings
Point determines the "grid" size and should be adjusted accordingly to the scale of the symbol you are applying the strategy to. Higher value would require larger price movements in order to trigger a trade, as such higher values will generate fewer trades.
The order size determines the number of contracts/shares to purchase.
The martingale multiplier determines the factor by which the position size is multiplied after a loss, using values higher to 2 will "squarify" your balance, while a value of 1 would use a constant position sizing.
Finally, the anti-martingale parameter determines whether the strategy uses a reverse martingale or not, if set to true then the position size is multiplied after any wins.
The Grid
Grid strategies are commons and do not present huge problems until we use certain position sizing methods such as the martingale. A martingale is extremely sensitive to any kind of friction (frictional costs, slippage...etc), the grid strategy aims to provide a stable and simple environment where a martingale might possibly behave well.
The goal of a simple grid strategy is to go long once the price crossover a certain level, a take profit is set at the level above the current one and stop loss is placed at the level below the current one, in a winning scenario the price reach the take profit, the position is closed and a new one is opened with the same setup. In a losing scenario, the price reaches the stop loss level, the position is closed and a short one is opened, the take profit is set at the level below the current one, and a stop loss is set at the level above the current one. Note that all levels are equally spaced.
It follows from this strategy that wins and losses should be constant over time, as such our balance would evolve in a linear fashion. This is a great setup for a martingale, as we are theoretically assured to recover all the looses in a losing streak.
Martingale - Exponential Decays - Risk/Reward
By using a martingale we double our position size (exposure) each time we lose a trade, if we look at our balance when using a martingale we see significant drawdowns, with our balance peaking down significantly. The martingale sequence is subject to exponential growth, as such using a martingale makes our balance exposed to exponential decays, that's really bad, we could basically lose all the initially invested capital in a short amount of time, it follows from this that the theoretical success of a martingale is determined by what is the maximum losing streak you can endure
Now consider how a martingale affects our risk-reward ratio, assuming unity position sizing our martingale sequence can be described by 2^(x-1) , using this formula we would get the amount of shares/contracts we need to purchase at the x trade of a losing streak, we would need to purchase 256 contracts in order to recover from a losing streak of size 9, this is enormous when you take into account that your wins are way smaller, the risk-reward ratio is totally unfair.
Of course, some users might think that a losing streak of size 9 is pretty unlikely, if the probability of winning and losing are both equal to 0.5, then the probability of 9 consecutive losses is equal to 0.5^9 , there are approximately 0.2% of chance of having such large losing streak, note however that under a ranging market such case scenario could happen, but we will see later that the length of a losing streak is not the only problem.
Other Problems
Having a capital large enough to tank 9any number of consecutive losses is not the only thing one should focus on, as we have to take into account market prices and trading dynamics, that's where the ugly part start.
Our first problem is frictional costs, one example being the spread, but this is a common problem for any strategy, however here a martingale is extra sensitive to it, if the strategy does not account for it then we will still double our positions costs but we might not recover all the losses of a losing streak, instead we would be recovering only a proportion of it, under such scenario you would be certain to lose over time.
Another problem are gaps, market price might open under a stop-loss without triggering it, and this is a big no-no.
Equity of the strategy on AMD, in a desired scenario the equity at the second arrow should have been at a higher position than the equity at the first arrow.
In order for the strategy to be more effective, we would need to trade a market that does not close, such as the cryptocurrency market. Finally, we might be affected by slippage, altho only extreme values might drastically affect our balance.
The Anti Martingale
The strategy lets you use an anti-martingale, which double the position size after a win instead of a loss, the goal here is not to recover from a losing strike but instead to profit from a potential winning streak.
Here we are exposing your balance to exponential gross but you might also lose a trade at the end a winning streak, you will generally want to reinitialize your position size after a few wins instead of waiting for the end of a streak.
Alternative
You can use other-kind of progressions for position sizing, such as a linear one, increasing your position size by a constant number each time you lose. More gentle progressions will recover a proportion of your losses in a losing streak.
You can also simulate the effect of a martingale without doubling your position size by doubling your target profit, if for example you have a 10$ profit-target/stop-loss and lose a trade, you can use a 20$ profit target to recover from the lost trade + gain a profit of 10$. While this approach does not introduce exponential decay in your balance, you are betting on the market reaching your take profits, considering the fact that you are doubling their size you are expecting market volatility to increase drastically over time, as such this approach would not be extremely effective for high losing streak.
Conclusion
You will see a lot of auto-trading strategies that are based on a grid approach, they might even use a martingale. While the backtests will look appealing, you should think twice before using such kind of strategy, remember that frictional costs will be a huge challenge for the strategy, and that it assumes that the trader has an important initial capital. We have also seen that the risk/reward ratio is theoretically the worst you can have on a strategy, having a low reward and a high risk. This does not mean that progressive position sizing is bad, but it should not be pushed to the extreme.
It is nice to note that the martingale is originally a betting system designed for casino games, which unlike trading are not subject to frictional costs, but even casino players don't use it, so why would you?
Thx for reading
Strategy!
Combo Strategy 123 Reversal & Ergodic CSI This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
This is one of the techniques described by William Blau in his book
"Momentum, Direction and Divergence" (1995). If you like to learn more,
we advise you to read this book. His book focuses on three key aspects
of trading: momentum, direction and divergence. Blau, who was an electrical
engineer before becoming a trader, thoroughly examines the relationship between
price and momentum in step-by-step examples. From this grounding, he then looks
at the deficiencies in other oscillators and introduces some innovative techniques,
including a fresh twist on Stochastics. On directional issues, he analyzes the
intricacies of ADX and offers a unique approach to help define trending and
non-trending periods.
This indicator plots Ergotic CSI and smoothed Ergotic CSI to filter out noise.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Double Exponential Moving Average 8-20-63 StrategyHello, this script was made upon the request of aliergin63, one of my followers.
I do not know exactly from whom it is quoted. (It may be author HighProfit.)
Long position when 8 dema is over 20 dema and 63 dema,
it opens a short position for the vice versa.
Alarms have been added.
%0.1 comission added.
Regards.
Note : DEMA = Double Exponential Moving Average
Combo Strategy 123 Reversal & Empirical Mode Decomposition This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
The related article is copyrighted material from Stocks & Commodities Mar 2010
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
EMA Crossover StrategyEMA Crossover Strategy
This strategy will enter a long trade when the 21 EMA crosses over the 55 EMA and both EMAs and the close price are above the 200 EMA (long-term trend).
It will enter a short trade when the 21 EMA crosses under the 55 EMA and both EMAs and the close price are below the 200 EMA.
It will exit a long trade when the RSI crosses under from overbought and indicates that the uptrend could be coming to an end.
It will exit a short trade when the RSI crosses over from oversold and indicates that the downtrend could be coming to an end.
Backtesting shows that it works best on:
30 MIN:
SYMBOL - PROFIT FACTOR
AUDCAD - 1.126
EURJPY - 1.12
EURNZD - 1.04
EURUSD - 1.65
GBPAUD - 1.27
USDCAD - 1.08
1 HR:
SYMBOL - PROFIT FACTOR
CADJPY- 1.23
EURNZD- 1.166
GBPJPY- 1.23
GBPUSD- 1.282
NZDJPY- 1.246
USDCHF- 1.344
3 HR:
SYMBOL - PROFIT FACTOR
CADCHF- 1.975
EURGBP- 1.776
EURNZD- 1.911
GBPAUD- 1.364
GBPCHF- 1.311
USDJPY- 1.162
XAUUSD - 2.00
As always, this strategy does not guarantee you to achieve profits and you should always use confirmations before entering a trade.
[CP]6 EMA Multi Timeframe InceptionA collection of 6 EMAs.
Each EMA can be attached to a different timeframe and have a different offset.
Great for building strategies that combine EMAs from different timeframes.
Simple SMA Indicator from StreamAdded strategy logic.
Part 2:
www.tradingview.com
Part 1:
www.tradingview.com
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
Combo Strategy 123 Reversal & EMA & MA Crossover This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
The Moving Average Crossover trading strategy is possibly the most popular
trading strategy in the world of trading. First of them were written in the
middle of XX century, when commodities trading strategies became popular.
This strategy is a good example of so-called traditional strategies.
Traditional strategies are always long or short. That means they are never
out of the market. The concept of having a strategy that is always long or
short may be scary, particularly in today’s market where you don’t know what
is going to happen as far as risk on any one market. But a lot of traders
believe that the concept is still valid, especially for those of traders who
do their own research or their own discretionary trading.
This version uses crossover of moving average and its exponential moving average.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo StrategyStrategy based on the Ishimoku Kinko Hyo system, using the different indicators it provides to build signals.
This strategy could be better as it should ideally use the position of the price line compared to Chikou to determine if signals should be looked for, but I've been unable to fully implement this so far (an imperfect implementation is provided, but disable by default). I'll update the script once I figure it out, but it still gives good results without this.
EMA Slope Cross Trend Follower StrategyThis strategy uses the cross of the slopes of two EMAs having different lengths to generate trend follower signals. By default, I use 130 and 400, which behave very well.
The conditions which make the strat enter the market are:
- Fast Slope > Slow Slope and price > EMA 200 : go Long
- Fast Slope < Slow Slope and price < EMA200 : go Short
The simple slopes cross in the opposite direction, closes the position.
The strategy performs best on Bitcoin and the most liquid and capitalized Altcoins, but works greatly on volatile assets as well, in particular if they often go trending.
Works best on 4h time frame.
There's also an optional Volatility filter, which opens the position only if the difference between the two slopes is more than a specific value, which can be set in the strategy inputs. The purpose is not opening positions if price is going sideways and the noise is way > than the signal.
Enjoy it!
Combination Parabolic MA/IIR/ALMA Strategy, with other goodiesOkay, so this is a lot. It started mostly with me combining indicators and looking for ideal entry criteria.
It is also a collection of conditions, whether used or unused, for my current chosen "best" strategy. It is currently set how I like it, but it has changed with time, and will continue to do so. Within, there are variables that are unused, but offer some insight into the overall odds of a trade. They were, in fact, once used but fell out of favor. And all details for this strategy are within the comment header of the script.
As this evolves, I most certainly wont keep any future findings and hope for profit from my peers (yinz). Also, I'd like to give a sincere thanks to the people of TV for what I learned in a few month's time and their flexible membership plans. Basically, I'm just a mad scientist, but this monster's a masterpiece and folks here before me made many indirect contributions to it.
--------------------------
Okay guys, lastly and most importantly,
Each smack of the like button is a vote of your confidence in me, to my beautiful landladies, Celeste and Adele, that my rent will be caught up and that it won't always be a problem. Which, in my mind, makes me a graph. And they've got strong hands and don't sell the low. I more than respect that. Seriously. And I'm very grateful for their willingness to work with me, but the thing is that I didn't ask first; life just happens. But few are tolerant of others. And quite importantly, I truly believe that I will be successful one day, and that "thumbs-up" button is your vote of confidence. If you're not sure, then don't hit it yet. Maybe my scripts will boost your confidence in me :)
-------------------------
PS: And you know what? I'ma give a shout-out to Philakone for teaching me everything that I know about Elliot Wave . Absolutely. Two years ago, I would keep telling myself that one day I will put something in his gratuity wallet or pursue the paid courses. And, I still plan on it, because I'm grateful. And so also, to everybody else, I'm recommending him to learn from. because as a trader who might not know everything for free, you can certainly fill in the gaps with his altruistic offerings. And I'm betting that you will then feel more than inclined to buy the Udemy course.
"If wave 2 retraces a lot; number 4 will not". Repetition. Philakone didn't fix my memory but he sure did find a workaround, haha
Okay, everyone, Thanks!
Combo Strategy 123 Reversal & Elder Ray (Bull Power) This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
Developed by Dr Alexander Elder, the Elder-ray indicator measures buying
and selling pressure in the market. The Elder-ray is often used as part
of the Triple Screen trading system but may also be used on its own.
Dr Elder uses a 13-day exponential moving average (EMA) to indicate the
market consensus of value. Bull Power measures the ability of buyers to
drive prices above the consensus of value. Bear Power reflects the ability
of sellers to drive prices below the average consensus of value.
Bull Power is calculated by subtracting the 13-day EMA from the day's High.
Bear power subtracts the 13-day EMA from the day's Low.
You can use in the xPrice any series: Open, High, Low, Close, HL2, HLC3, OHLC4 and ect...
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
RSI W Pattern strategyThis strategy is similar to RSI V pattern strategy, but it looks for W pattern in RSI chart.
RULES
======
BUY
1. ema20 is above ema50
2. RSI5 crossing up 30 from oversold area
3. and RSI5 must be below overbought area (default value set to 65)
Add to existing Position
1. You can add on the next W pattern OR
2. if RSI5 is crossing up from below 20
Exit
1. when RSI5 reaches 75
Note: This is for short term/swing trading . which gets on when price dip in trending and quickly gets you out on RSI overbought area
TSI CCI Hull with profit$$$This is a modified version of @SeaSide420 TSI CCI Hull with profits exit on long and short order
ORIGINAL SCRIPT:
/// /// feel free to edit/improve and comment
Options Decay Speed for 0DTEUse only for:
SPX, 5 minutes time frame
This indicator is complementing options 0DTE strategy - selling options for SPX index in the same day as they are expiring. Output of the indicator (red or green color of the curve) indicates whether is profitable to sell options at given moment at delta and VIX specified in the parameters. Changing parameter "Candles" is not recommended.
Main thought is that options expire with certain speed (theta decay) when stock doesnt move. When stock moves in unfavorable direction slowly enough, decay speed can compensate for disadvantage coming from option delta. Intuitively there must be certain speed of stock value change (expressed in stock value per 5 minutes) that is exactly compensating theta decay. This indicator calculates those two values (details below) and shows, where theta decay is faster than stock movement in the last hour and thus favorable to sell options.
Indicator gets its result from comparing two values:
1) volatility in the form of highest high and lowest low for past 12 candles (one hour in total) divided by 12 - meaning average movement of stock expressed in
2) speed of options value decay in form of combination of theta decay and option delta. Formulas are approximation of Black-Scholes model as Pine script doesnt allow for advanced functions. Approximations are accurate to 2 decimal points from market open to one hour before market close and will not indicate green when accuracy is not sufficient. Its value is also expressed in so its mutualy comparable.
My focus was not on code elegance but on practical usability.
Written by Ondřej Škop.
Highest High and Lowest Low Channel StrategyHighest / Highest High Highest (Data) - HHV (Data, Period)
Lowest / Lowest Low Lowest (Data) LLV (Data, Period)
These functions calculate the highest / lowest value of a selected data.
Highest High and Lowest Low options are mostly used.
The Highest function calculates the highest value of the selected data in the past.
The Lowest function calculates the lowest value of the selected data in the past.
Pivot Point V2 Strategy Pivot points simply took the high, low, and closing price from the previous period and
divided by 3 to find the pivot. From this pivot, traders would then base their
calculations for three support, and three resistance levels. The calculation for the most
basic flavor of pivot points, known as ‘floor-trader pivots’, along with their support and
resistance levels.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Strategy 123 Reversal & Elder Ray (Bear Power) This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
Developed by Dr Alexander Elder, the Elder-ray indicator measures buying
and selling pressure in the market. The Elder-ray is often used as part
of the Triple Screen trading system but may also be used on its own.
Dr Elder uses a 13-day exponential moving average (EMA) to indicate the
market consensus of value. Bull Power measures the ability of buyers to
drive prices above the consensus of value. Bear Power reflects the ability
of sellers to drive prices below the average consensus of value.
Bull Power is calculated by subtracting the 13-day EMA from the day's High.
Bear power subtracts the 13-day EMA from the day's Low.
You can use in the xPrice any series: Open, High, Low, Close, HL2, HLC3, OHLC4 and ect...
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
EMA Slope Trend Follower StrategyThis strategy is based on the slope of the EMA130.
Over that slope, the script calculates two EMAs (9,21) which are used to generate the main entry and exit signal.
In particular, the strategy enters a LONG position when EMA9 > EMA21. On the contrary, it closes the LONG and opens a SHORT when EMA9 < EMA21.
When the slope of the EMA130 is rising, it means that the price is accelerating upwards, fueling an uptrend. Conversely, when the slope is falling, it means that the price is slowing down, falling into a possible downtrend.
Calculating and analyzing two EMAs (fast and slow) over the slope of a medium length EMA instead of the price anticipates a lot the signal. In this way, the strategy never miss a trend.
In order to minimize false positives (entering useless positions), I included two filters, which can be optionally turned on:
- Trend Filter: When the price is above EMA200, the strategy opens ONLY LONG positions. If price < EMA200, only shorts allowed. If the slope gives a long signal and price is below EMA200, for example, the eventual SHORT position is closed, but the LONG entry is postponed to the moment when both conditions (slope uptrending and price > ema200) are met.
I recommend always turning on this filter, as it dramatically decreases drawdown.
- Volatility Filter: When the standard deviation of the last 20 candles is below its 50 samples moving average, no positions are opened, as market is going sideways. The purpose of this filter is to prevent false positives (positions which open and close in a matter of candles due to false signals in sideways market).
I recommend turning on this filter only on low time frames.
This strategy works great on medium time frames (like 4h, 6h, daily), since it spends way less in fees, opening less positions.
It works good on low TFs too (up to 1h, didn't test lower ones), provided Volatility filter is turned on and parameters are set according to the asset.
Commission included in calculations: 0.06% (it's the taker commission on BitMEX with the 10% discount obtainable with any referral link)
Slippage included in calculations: 2 ticks (BitMEX has very liquid order books, and slippage doesn't happen very often unless a huge position size is used).
Hull Suite StrategyConverted the hull suite into a strategy script for easy backtesting and added ability to specify a time periods to backtest over.
RSI5_50 with DivergenceThis is variation of RSI Divergence strategy.
I have added a filter (long term RSI) to the Rules. strategy BUYs when RSI 50 period is above 50 line and there is divergence on the short term RSI
settings
=========
short term RSI period 5
long term RSI period 50
stopLoss is 8% --- if setting is enabled
BUY Rule
========
RSI 50 is above 50 line
short term RSI is showing divergence
Add to existing
==============
if already in position, BUY when shorTermRSI is crossing above 20
TakeProfit
=========
when longTermRSI reaches 60,65, 70 and 75 level , take partial profits .
(not when crossing down --- This may affect on profits , because when price goes down , it goes very fast )
Exit
=====
when longTermRSI is crossing down 30
OR stopLoss value hits
Note: When I tested this with GOOGL stock , I have got excellent results ... any experts there , please check everything is good with scripting ...
Happy Trading
