The SSE Composite is looking for a generational trough lands
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It's looking for a trough in weeks/months for a big bounce up. One final leg down on "Weekly" to wrap things up.! Time + Structure is key here. Seasonality is bullish till May, but structurally looks like another low.! Or this analysis is basically wrong.!
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Monthly perspective vs weekly up.!ملاحظة
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Zoom in, 2 false break downs.!ملاحظة
This needs to hold up for BABA to go up.!ملاحظة
We have already broken : (Not good for NIO + BABA)1/ Triangle.
2/ Channel
3/ Trend lines
Good news, is that we are in oversold territory.! ( Good for NIO & BABA)
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Technically a dream land for the Bulls, fundamentally something else.!- Ever probable, applicable & else absolute.!
1/ Textbook 5 waves down + Seasonality Vs Fundamentals + Geopolitical issues
2/ Weekly RSI Diver .!
SSEC vs SPX.!
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W1 is (-14%) VS 9-14%) W5ملاحظة
- Ever probable, applicable & else absolute.! 1/ Unless WW 3 starts, we start 1929 recession, geopolitical issues arise and we totally stop rhythming with the past + 40 Years or so since 1992-2023 we are having a major trough a "Generational" one.
2/ With a risk down of (-3%)-(-7%) from this week till April of 2024 .!
3/ I am using SPX/SSEC'S MACD highest reading, represented here with Blue lines.!
4/ 8 signals out there since 1992 .!
5/ The move is between +39% up to +300% with in 15 weeks or 129 Days.!
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Live charts.!tradingview.com/chart/2o39Qq0Y/
tradingview.com/chart/K4hJSUOC/
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Vortex Indicator's MACD is suggesting that we are in the final stages of this move, with a (-4%)(-5%) (-9%) risk down.! We are in the process of "Trough Making".!ملاحظة
Vortex Indicator's MACD "V-" is suggesting that we are in the final stages of this move, with a (-4%)- (-13%) risk down.! We are in the process of "Trough Making".! ملاحظة
- Regular MACD'S Divergence with price has an outstanding bullish moves, ranging between +15% up to 485% if and only if we hold this divergence.!- August 2013 is quite strong fractal.!
- If ever probable, applicable & all else absolute.!
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Monthly RSI @ 38 if and only if applicable, probable and all else absolute has a "Trough Making " in progress structure. With down risk in RED and Bullish moves are in Green.ملاحظة
Closest fractal is this on Monthly which was followed by a +36% Bullish move then major lower low .! 2002-2003 .!- If and only if applicable, probable and all else absolute
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Could not fit both in one idea.! "Present"ملاحظة
2002-20032023
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Is it a "Trough making " in progress ?Or this time it's different and we crash big time.!
Technical analysis vs Geopolitical + fundamentals
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For BABA and NIO holders...As time passes #4 & # 2 :
1/ Similar RSI. 2/ Similar wave structs 3 troughs(Thus far).
3/ -24 & -41% are also one of the differences.!
4/ SM Averages are the in total different positions .!
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RSI OF RSI is still hanging on it's diver, will it be invalidated or no yet to be "Observed"ملاحظة
*** If and only if applicable, probable and all else absolute ***The RSI on Monthly is entering a historic buying area a "Generational one". The next (-10%) -(-25%) in Q1 +Q2 of 2024 is the max risk if we rhythm or this TA is basically wrong & Geopolitics runs the show .!
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Up dating a previous idea... Entering risk box soon or not ?ملاحظة
SPX/SSECUp dating our MACD'S High readings study:
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*** If and only if applicable, probable and all else absolute ***January- March of 2024 is a major trough land for the SSEC, or not and this MACD'S analysis is wrong.!
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Same idea on a weekly chart...ملاحظة
Updating 230 Monthly SMA...ملاحظة
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Will we gap down or not in February ? To make one big "Bear tap" .!ملاحظة
RSI'S Readings VS Percentage decline from last major top .!- Or its a different move this time around.!
- Ever probable, applicable and all else absolute.!
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Updating...ملاحظة
Some observations, food for thought .! Divers between EEM and SSEC .!- BABA and NIO holders ....
- Big moves were missed big time.!
- Not clear to me how to use these so called related instruments together.!
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Correlation between EEM/SSEC and BABA.!ملاحظة
Updating with RSI + MACDملاحظة
EEM'S ETF is printing the lowest RSI reading with the highest trough out there .!ملاحظة
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RED Circles:- 2015 BABA leads by 6 Months
- 2019 BABA leads by 15 Months
- 2023 BABA leads by 15 Months ( Or we get a bull's trap.!) "False signal .!
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Updating..One signal is out of service .! These divers, in the past, resulted in +24% Bullish move.!
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1st major support area has been achieved.!ملاحظة
Updating...We have exceeded one of our bearish targets already.!
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Updating...Our risk model for BABA + NIO holders is 2ed to July of 1994, with 20% bearish steam in it within 60-90 Days if ever applicable, probable and all else absolute.!
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Updating the Monthly's RSI...Past...
Present with risk down off (-8%) in 60 Days.
- If ever applicable, probable and all else absolute.!
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The big difference here for BABA and NIO holders is we are printing this at a higher price .!ملاحظة
EEM is printing a rare signal as such on the chart.!ملاحظة
This is the complete opposite of the previous idea.!
I do more in depth studies of stocks on my twitter account. Hope you would enjoy it there as you are enjoying it here.
****** Past performance is no guarantee of future results***
twitter.com/samitrading1
****** Past performance is no guarantee of future results***
twitter.com/samitrading1
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