BTC Bitcoin will Drop more? Bull Run finished? Past teach us...

١٢ سبتمبر ٢٠٢١

Hard to describe my Idea (hope not to offend your BTC Bullish State)
Let's start with 2018
2018 with Trump government a lot of things happens, dump on markets and so on.
BTC started to pump when dollar was strong and started the Sell Off when dollar was cheaper.
Doesn't look all this like a Double Earning Strategy?

• With strong dollar where buyed BTC at lowest prices. This started Bull Market late 2017.
  
• When dollar was cheap enough and BTC Strong (very good gain) there was a lot of BTC selling to returning to Cheap Dollars.
  
• Than things inverted, Stock market rebound a little in 2019, Dollar became strong again (more Gain over the already Gained)
  
• BTC fall under start point, and again with strong dollars there was a BUY the Dip for next Bull Run.
  

Now let's check 2020-2021 BTC BULL RUN

Same thing isn't it?

• In a big volatility stock market and uncertain there was a lot of Stock Selling for Dollars
  
• With all those strong dollar where buyed BTC at lowest prices. This started Bull Market 2020.
  
• When dollar was cheap enough and BTC Strong (very good gain at 64K) there was a lot of BTC selling to returning to Cheap Dollars.
  
• Can we suppose a rebound in USD strength? Yes if Oil will drop a lot.
  
• Can we suppose a BTC DROP to 25-30K, 7K or worse 500$? Yes if there will be a panic selling, a strong dollar and restart of economy. Than BTC will be buyed again at very DIP price.
  

Let's check another confirmation : VIX 2017-2018 vs VIX 2020-2021
Can you see a 2X scale difference from 2017-2018 and 2020-2021? All last longer. Quite like it was planned in some way, isn't? Someone have learned from 2017-2018 small crisis?

Graph talk by it self, isn't?
2018

• At 2nd Stock Market Drop on late 2018 (september) things goes really bad
  
• On November BTC reached all time low
  
• On 24 December SP500 did same thing
  

2021

• With a probabil 2nd Stock Market Drop on late 2021 (September) things start to go really bad?
  
• Does BTC will resist at 30K drop or will it reach a very low price?
  
• Will be 24 December sufficient for the biggest stock market drop ever? (if it will happen?)
  

Only thing that can save Crypto and Stock Market can be :

• Stronger USD
  
• OIL price Drop
  
• No Yield increase
  

This can or could happen if the 3 Trillion plan will pass, if something will happen to Oil, if FED will decide to posticipate Tapering.

However keep in mind this : BTC Dominance became weaker. Maybe this is caused by a very high price, more interesting (and robust) projects with others Crypto (and cheaper). BTC will retest same areas...but volumes are getting weaker. No more interest, only Retail interest, but they are not aware of what will happen. Only Greed and Fomo.


Did you find all those idea useful? Hope so, let me know. And spread the idea if you want...