Cracked the BTC whale system again, 7000 support says 7700 next
First of all, please read at least a few of my previous analysis to understand what's going on now. I am still long from the 6470, i have just closed half at 7330 and a stop for the rest around 6900/7000. The chart you see here looks complicated, but take your time to look at it and you will understand it. I have showed this a few days ago as part of my plan/idea. But now i have added that big rally in Feb from the 6K to 11K. I showed this yesterday to my followers, because the resemblance was quite amazing. But only from the low and up, not what happened before.
As you can see, i expect this rally is not over yet, we should be half way the second part. Many people here are still bears (who were probably bulls a few weeks ago) so that's a good sign. We want to see higher prices and see most people become bulls again so money enters the market and pushes prices even higher before the whales take over again and start another big crash of this market! The last few days i gave some very detailed info about what i thought was going on, what the plan was of the whales/hedge funds. If i say so myself, i nailed it almost 100% perfect. You can read all about it in the many updates i give.
Everything aside now, looking objectively, that bear trap at the 6400 indicates a bigger plan. So i would be surprised if 7400 and even 7700 would be the end of this rally. Even if price does not get much higher, the correction should take longer in time. So chances that we drop below 6900 the next few days, is less than 10% for me. But markets always work in strange ways, so always be ready to adjust the plan when needed.
To be clear, i have been one of the biggest bears on crypto for a while now, but for the next week or 2 i am a bull :). I wrote in my previous analysis that i even think prices in the 8K and 9K levels would even be better, because than it's a guarantee that everyone becomes a big bull again. So my strategy is a move towards those prices, but it's easier said than done. Because this market is very VERY weak. But for me it's not to adjust when price starts to show real weakness. Because i already took some profit now and the rest is from 6470, it's quite easy now to take some risks
Plan for today: Big chance price won't drop below 7150 but i will add to my position again between 7000/7200. It's always healthy to make a correction after a rally like this, but my guess is one more wave up to exhaust the bears and maybe than a fast 300/500 point drop to shake out some bulls. Just like we see in that big rally in Feb.
Good luck trading and don't forget to like, keep me motivated to keep doing this
As you can see, i expect this rally is not over yet, we should be half way the second part. Many people here are still bears (who were probably bulls a few weeks ago) so that's a good sign. We want to see higher prices and see most people become bulls again so money enters the market and pushes prices even higher before the whales take over again and start another big crash of this market! The last few days i gave some very detailed info about what i thought was going on, what the plan was of the whales/hedge funds. If i say so myself, i nailed it almost 100% perfect. You can read all about it in the many updates i give.
Everything aside now, looking objectively, that bear trap at the 6400 indicates a bigger plan. So i would be surprised if 7400 and even 7700 would be the end of this rally. Even if price does not get much higher, the correction should take longer in time. So chances that we drop below 6900 the next few days, is less than 10% for me. But markets always work in strange ways, so always be ready to adjust the plan when needed.
To be clear, i have been one of the biggest bears on crypto for a while now, but for the next week or 2 i am a bull :). I wrote in my previous analysis that i even think prices in the 8K and 9K levels would even be better, because than it's a guarantee that everyone becomes a big bull again. So my strategy is a move towards those prices, but it's easier said than done. Because this market is very VERY weak. But for me it's not to adjust when price starts to show real weakness. Because i already took some profit now and the rest is from 6470, it's quite easy now to take some risks
Plan for today: Big chance price won't drop below 7150 but i will add to my position again between 7000/7200. It's always healthy to make a correction after a rally like this, but my guess is one more wave up to exhaust the bears and maybe than a fast 300/500 point drop to shake out some bulls. Just like we see in that big rally in Feb.
Good luck trading and don't forget to like, keep me motivated to keep doing this
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I showed this yesterday, to compare that big bull rally in Feb from the 6K to 11K. Here you can see the resemblance much betterملاحظة
Made another attempt to go higher, but chances increase that it will drop out that channelملاحظة
I have to show this one again, my trigger to go long at the low 2 days ago. Including the comment i added in that update:This could maybe even be the most likely outcome, i did not show it in the primary chart because it would become to confusing. I have seen these kind of moves many times in the stock market after a big drop. It's all guessing though, so it's difficult to hang a trading strategy on it.
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And maybe even more important, how i 'cracked' the whale system yesterday. Just so u don't miss out on the information.....I was about to write about what i saw at Bitmex. I was seeing some very big buy orders there, just waiting to get sold in to, with prices around 6970. That's why i wanted to say that it looks like an accumulation fase. I even wrote that a fast spike down of 50 to 150 points could be part of the plan. While i was still writing it made that 100 point drop and i thought it would be quite foolish to still post it :)
But now that i am seeing that small bear flag is failing and price jumped up again, it almost confirms the plan. But even more because it seems the same buyers who caught the price falling a few hours earlier at 6890/7000, have done it again. We are not there yet, a push above 7100 and a small rally would only THAN confirm this story. Now could be making a small bull flag to push the price higher.
I am curious to find out what happens, because if this story checks out, we could have won a small edge on the whales. I am waiting and looking at the screen with a big smile ready to find out if i am crazy or maybe a humble genius :) LOL
Don't even care anymore about the profit of my long position, i just want to no if i am seeing this right
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Looks like a small bear flag, indicating that channel will break.ملاحظة
Thanks Cuda777 for the tip, i have put you on my favourite list, with privileges :)You share the nr 1 spot now :)
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that channel seems to have lost it's weight, Starting to look like a bigger bull flag now. So i will buy back between 7250/7300 or above 7400. With a 200 point stop for this position. My original position from 6470 has a stop around 6900ملاحظة
This looks like a desperate rallyملاحظة
Or not :) If they break the high it could trigger another small rally againملاحظة
Keep the likes coming guys, you almost got me at the nr 1 spot again of daily authorsملاحظة
The bull flag, still looking strongملاحظة
Oke guys, taking a small break. Keep up the likes and i will update later today. If something big happens, i will try to update with my mobileملاحظة
So volume was missing at that break out. So probably i was not entirely wrong when i said earlier i though it looked like a desperate rally ملاحظة
If the 7400 holds than it's only a pullback to test the flag. If price drops to 7250, than chances increase it could make an H&S which could make price drop towards the 7000. Just thinking about possibilities to be preparedملاحظة
This could become a bear flag, so we should get an answer soon i thinkملاحظة
Thanks guys, for putting both my analysis at nr 1 and 2 spot :)ملاحظة
And the nr 1 author of the day again :) Thanks :)Okay, BTC has a target still of 7700 and it's still looking very strong, so nothing yet confirming weakness. However, if BTC fails to reach 7700 and therefore falls short with the 7500 high, that would be a very big sign of weakness. So preferably price stays above 7200/7250 with a max of 7000ish. If price falls below that support, than i will probably turn short. Getting ahead, but being prepared!
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Small bear flag broke down, chances increase we are headed towards 7250 again, now it's important that it makes a higher low. ملاحظة
Now it looks like a small H&S is being formed, if it can break through that red area if will fail and this was just a pull back. If we drop below that neckline, than this attempt to break the 7400 failed and we will probably go lower to find support again to make a new attempt to go higherملاحظة
If it touches the 7380 again (neckline) than it's 75% sure we drop below it. I know most of you like to use indicators, well on most time frames it's a short tern sell. Thing is, markets to whatever they want, it could destroy every indicator signal by going sideways and make a correction in time. But it is a nice tool to get extra confirmationملاحظة
Eventually it cracked, ideally we stay above the 7260, the neckline of a bigger H&S. This is the scenario i talked about a few hours ago. That if would drop to these levels, we should try to make a higher low here. That would be a very bullish sign. We should not hang here for too long, otherwise chances increase we will look up the 7000/7100ملاحظة
Things are looking quite stable now, we have stayed perfectly above the 7260. In a small bull flag now which could (and should) break higher any minute now. If this flag fails, chances increase allot that it will make the right shoulder of that bigger H&S i talked about that could bring us to around the 7000I would like to see the 7260 holding for now and make the first real correction after hitting the 7700. Thing we will get our answer today
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Want to see it make a higher low on the 1 min chart now, so we don't get close to that necklineملاحظة
We don't want to see price dropping to the 7260 again, because chances increase that the neckline gets brokenI took a quick look at some of the bigger Alt coins, they show show the same H&S. So we need to get some bullish momentum in soon. Because it's starting to look bad on the short time frame
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There you have it. I am getting ready to buy again between 7050/7150. Like to see price getting more stable firstملاحظة
Wrong one :)ملاحظة
Because of moves like these, i close parts of my position during the ride. To lock in some profit but even more to make it easier to stay calm during these dumps! I will try to buy the half i sold yesterday at 7330, back at around 7100ملاحظة
I bought half of what i want to buy at 7080 and i will wait some more for the restملاحظة
I got the rest in too :)Target of the H&S has been reached at the support line, we should not drop more than this, 6900 is really the max for my theory! That's why i have my stop around that level
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No bounce yet, not looking good!ملاحظة
I am amazed about how many people have become even bigger bears than i was. Actually quite funny to see (no disrespect!). It just confirms how emotional markets can make a trader. I am not saying that i am absolutely right with my analysis, that we should go higher before we make the next big wave down, but it actually makes me feel even more comfortable that most people are looking down now. As long as 6900/7000 holds, everything is just still short term bullish. We do need to see some volume kicking in, otherwise this rally will have a short lifeملاحظة
This wedge would fit the picture quite perfectly. But it could also be the last hope for the 7000 to succeed as a support. Think we will get an answer within the hourملاحظة
I have just added some more at 7010, stop for these added positions is around 6900, the original position from 6470 at 6850. We should see a move up any minute now, maybe a last small spike down (false move). this should not take TOO long, otherwise this wedge will have no effect/weightملاحظة
The move up is (almost) taking to long now, should happen soon otherwise it will fail. Looking more like a descending triangle now, which indicates lower prices.ملاحظة
It was taking to long, no conviction. I got my added position out for a 100 point loss. I still have my original position, for this i have a stop at 6850 now. That level has to hold! Otherwise this whole move up was just short covering buying. I really thought that bear trap at the low at 6400 were buyers setting up a bigger move.
Even testing that support while i am writing this. Lets see what happens now
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Looks like my stop will also crack soon, still a nice profit overall so can't complain. Okay guys, i am out for half a day. Good luck trading :)ملاحظة
First time bulls are pushing back, could be making an inverse H&S here, but chances are big it could fail, if so we will see an acceleration down to break the support at 6500 and will probably keep on dropping. I think it's to soon for another big move down. But lets be honoust :) i said the same thing a week ago around the 8000 when i was waiting for 8400 to go short for a drop towards 6K :)I got the short and the long term quite well, but i am struggling the last 2 weeks with the medium term. I will try to post a new analysis later today
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Almost a confirmed fail, should not drop below that green areaملاحظة
I am scrolling through my updates, but i can't find the warning i gave yesterday, the reason why i closed half my position at 7330. Probably was the previous analysis. Anyway, the answer was actually there after that failed breakout, but i just didn't see it. While i am writing this, we see a small move up which maybe gives my answer to where we are now, have we done the yellow part already or are we doing it now. That would mean a small wave up towards 6900/7000 before dropping again. But predicting moves like this, is a very risky job of course. As we can see here, it's not 100% identical. But it does give a good indication to where we are headed.
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Having that said, i have no entry point yet because i have not made up my mind which direction we will take for the medium term, i still have a move up in my mind before the big drop towards 4K levels, which i can't get rid off. Therefore i have decided to take a small break for a day or 2. I will post a new analysis but without the updates probably. The ones who have supported me with tips, can still PM me for more infoملاحظة
If this level get's broken (was the support level and my stop level from my remaining long position from 6460 earlier today), it could set of a small reversal again. Which could bring us to the 7000ish before making another drop (like in the chart above in the yellow area) or it's the start of a bigger (short term) bullish move ملاحظة
I keep getting an error trying to post the new analysis. I will post it here, and try again later todayملاحظة
Yesterday when we reached the 7400 i closed half my long position at 7330 from the 6460, to reduce risk and lock in profit. But the main reason was this picture (of course also common sense to take profit after 900 point fast ride). In my previous analysis i had 2 options, the one you see here, and a slightly more bullish one suggesting we go to the 7800/8000. We all know what happened next of course, we started dropping and dropping and kept on dropping. I bought some more around 7050, the 7000 should/could have been a big support which i closed at 6950 and my remaining position got closed when we dropped below the 6850. Since then i have been flat and waiting for a clear entry signal, long or short.There are 2 options now, we go up, or we go down :) LOL (best analyst ever i know :)).
Option 1: We have made wave A to 7500 and B just now to 6600 and ready to make wave C the next few days, towards 7700/8000.
Option 2: The chart above, giving 2 options for the coming hours, We already finished the yellow part from march 14th and are ready to drop again, or we go towards the 7000 again before we start dropping.
The similarities are quite amazing again but also the same reason i have doubts. My 20 years trader mind says we need a wave up before dropping big again, my 1 year crypto mind says we follow this picture. Even though i was slightly off yesterday i still made a nice profit because i was smart enough to take profit during the way up and not becoming to greedy. Sometimes it's for the best, sometimes you miss out much more. But trust me, on the long run your a winner if you DO take profit in parts.
I posted this chart an hour ago while we were still at 6600 levels, while i was writing this we already got a small answer, the bull flag it's making now suggest we go to at least 7000ish, so actually saying we have to create that yellow part at least before dropping. Having this said, i have narrowed my entry a bit. I could go short around 7000 (if i get a signal that i should) or i just wait and see what happens. Because my preference is still another wave up. So for me it's almost certain that i stay flat a day or 2. I will put my energy in the stock market as we seem to have made the reversal yesterday. I posted a perfect prediction of a bear trap/ reversal pattern yesterday on the DAX exactly at the low. I suggest you look it up, almost the same way i predicted the bear trap at 64xx 2 days ago on the BTC.
Good luck guys
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This with the chart in the previous updateملاحظة
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