Bitcoin in 2020-2021, why BTC might 10x in a year.
تم تحديثه
Hi guys,
as we enter the new year, I wanted to give you guys my own personal opinion on Bitcoin and what I think we can expect for this year and next year and my reasoning behind it all
do note that this is a macro perspective over 2 years, so of course there will be bumps and humps down the road, but zooming out this is what I think we can expect.
the first main question that people will have is, have we reached our bottom yet with our 6.4k bottom we hit on December 18, and in my personal opinion, I don't think we have just yet.
by looking at the EMA21 (orange line) vs MA50 (light blue line) crosses
1) first circle: our first bearish cross I circled, when EMA21 crosses down the MA50 we have a continuation of our trend, it was going down the main trend from 20k to 10k, and we had continuation of our trend
after the bearish cross, so we ended towards our bottom of 3.1k
2) second circle: our bullish cross I circles, is when EMA21 crosses up the MA50, we can see that we were reversing from our trend from 3.1k to around 5.5k, and after that bullish cross, we had once again
continuation of that main trend and reached our previous top at around 13.9k area
3) third circle: now we have been once again going into a downtrend from our top 13.9k to 7.4k where we are at right now, and although we do not see a bearish cross just yet, as long as the price is below the EMA21 and MA50, it will happen eventually, and if we do not make a real reversal of our downtrend, I see the bearish cross happening in the next few weeks and that will bring us a leg down lower, since it is continuation of our main trend once again
so where do I think we will bottom out?
- well our MA200 (green line) has always been a nice level of support, if we look back at our previous bottom of 3.1k it has held that line, and it is currently at 5126 USD, so watching that line should be a good position for entry on BTC
- secondly if we do a fibonacci retracement from our all time low, towards our previous top of 13.9k we can see that our fib levels 0.618-0.65 or what we call our "golden pocket ratio" is between 5520-5263 USD
which is another spot we should be looking at with an interested eye for entering our beloved BTC
- thirdly I have drawn a red spotted support line that has been going on since 2017 and we have held that so far, and it would match somewhere there as well if we get our break down towards that area in the next few weeks
so where do I think we will go in 2020?
- well we all are aware that we have our infamous bitcoin halving this year around mid of May, so I do think that once we have hit our bottom for the year, we will make a strong run towards our previous top, but I do not think we will break it in 2020 just yet, just create another local high around the bitcoin halving date, so I am expecting around 13.9k once again for our high in 2020
so where do I think we will go in 2021?
- well after the halving, I do think we are going back into a pretty long downtrend or accumulation phase that will finally break up somewhere in 2021.
looking at the waves formation we would be creating an ABCDE with an ascending triangle as a formation, that has a very high probability to break upwards.
- usually the amount is similar to the first vertical of the base of the triangle, so around 525%, doing that from our break out, we could be seeing BTC at 50k+ prices in 2021.
so that concludes my analysis for 2020-2021, and why I think it is very possible that we will hit our bottom this year and we can 10x over the next 2 years
hope you enjoyed it :)
-Ryu
//Disclaimer//
This is not financial advice, just merely my own personal opinion.
as we enter the new year, I wanted to give you guys my own personal opinion on Bitcoin and what I think we can expect for this year and next year and my reasoning behind it all
do note that this is a macro perspective over 2 years, so of course there will be bumps and humps down the road, but zooming out this is what I think we can expect.
the first main question that people will have is, have we reached our bottom yet with our 6.4k bottom we hit on December 18, and in my personal opinion, I don't think we have just yet.
by looking at the EMA21 (orange line) vs MA50 (light blue line) crosses
1) first circle: our first bearish cross I circled, when EMA21 crosses down the MA50 we have a continuation of our trend, it was going down the main trend from 20k to 10k, and we had continuation of our trend
after the bearish cross, so we ended towards our bottom of 3.1k
2) second circle: our bullish cross I circles, is when EMA21 crosses up the MA50, we can see that we were reversing from our trend from 3.1k to around 5.5k, and after that bullish cross, we had once again
continuation of that main trend and reached our previous top at around 13.9k area
3) third circle: now we have been once again going into a downtrend from our top 13.9k to 7.4k where we are at right now, and although we do not see a bearish cross just yet, as long as the price is below the EMA21 and MA50, it will happen eventually, and if we do not make a real reversal of our downtrend, I see the bearish cross happening in the next few weeks and that will bring us a leg down lower, since it is continuation of our main trend once again
so where do I think we will bottom out?
- well our MA200 (green line) has always been a nice level of support, if we look back at our previous bottom of 3.1k it has held that line, and it is currently at 5126 USD, so watching that line should be a good position for entry on BTC
- secondly if we do a fibonacci retracement from our all time low, towards our previous top of 13.9k we can see that our fib levels 0.618-0.65 or what we call our "golden pocket ratio" is between 5520-5263 USD
which is another spot we should be looking at with an interested eye for entering our beloved BTC
- thirdly I have drawn a red spotted support line that has been going on since 2017 and we have held that so far, and it would match somewhere there as well if we get our break down towards that area in the next few weeks
so where do I think we will go in 2020?
- well we all are aware that we have our infamous bitcoin halving this year around mid of May, so I do think that once we have hit our bottom for the year, we will make a strong run towards our previous top, but I do not think we will break it in 2020 just yet, just create another local high around the bitcoin halving date, so I am expecting around 13.9k once again for our high in 2020
so where do I think we will go in 2021?
- well after the halving, I do think we are going back into a pretty long downtrend or accumulation phase that will finally break up somewhere in 2021.
looking at the waves formation we would be creating an ABCDE with an ascending triangle as a formation, that has a very high probability to break upwards.
- usually the amount is similar to the first vertical of the base of the triangle, so around 525%, doing that from our break out, we could be seeing BTC at 50k+ prices in 2021.
so that concludes my analysis for 2020-2021, and why I think it is very possible that we will hit our bottom this year and we can 10x over the next 2 years
hope you enjoyed it :)
-Ryu
//Disclaimer//
This is not financial advice, just merely my own personal opinion.
ملاحظة
bearish continuation cross got rejected, hence making this idea invalidated!since this is a nice rejection and price is holding above the EMA21, very bullish :) and I am looking forward to see 16k+ price range for this year :)
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