BTC - It Was a Herd of Contrarians!
Nothing like every top author talking about the "Contrarian" trade on trading view. It was like back in high school when you told one person about the girl you just started dating and by the end of the day the entire school knew about it. This is exactly what we saw Saturday with Bitcoin' . Even with 3 articles on Friday talking about the "short squeeze", I read yet another one that was talking about how this was the "contrarian trade".
On the 15th we brought up where shorts were piling into an already crowded trade with our (uncomfortable short shoes article) and by the 23rd everyone was posting "short squeeze" and "contrarian trade". Well the secret was out and the market simply adjusted as this is how markets work. Of course since it was no longer a secret this gave the shorts time to react and they did. Many slowly closed out of positions, or raised their stop loss levels, in the meantime leveraged longs were piling into the trade. It was simply a "Herd of Contrarians".
So Saturday after a nice spike to the upside, there was absolutely no follow through. Well of course announcing to the opposite side you are headed their way does not take anyone by surprise, they simply prepared and that is what we saw! We anticipated a spike would result in a short squeeze and when this did not play out, and an obvious short trigger appeared we simply told our members on S.C. to exit the position trade from 6200 taking a profit and raise the stop on our BCH' trade to limit risk.
At this point we were worried about the Contrarian of the Contrarians and the market pulling back which was now the true contrarian trade. It did last night, and it fell apart rather quickly, however, bulls rose up through the ashes pushing bitcoin' back to its current level. This may imply there is still some underlying strength or simply a shorter term bull trap. We will just wait and see from the sidelines, relax this afternoon and not have to look at our phone every 5 minutes.
This chart is what we were looking at Saturday. An increase in long interest, a decrease of short interest and the spot market not moving. If money was flowing in this should have resulted in a price spike but it simply did not. This was a sign for us to step aside as the market was not acting right and by raising our stops, we still gave the market a chance but were taking precautionary measures to preserve capital.
Not that the market can not rally from here, but with the current price action the market is mixed and showing indecisiveness, which is as I mentioned earlier in my S.C. article, a coin flip at best.
I'm going out on a limb here.
First we could rally up and the short squeeze play out.
Second we could fall apart and retest 6200.
I will keep you updated to let you know whether I am right or wrong after one or the other happens. I will update every hour or so to feed into the FOMO and FOLYA in the meantime.
LMAO who gets away with this stuff ;)
Seriously the market is simply showing lack of direction so we are stepping aside until we get a clearer picture. We have entered the No-Trade Zone!
Regardless of the direction we still have some exposure if the market does decide to rally, and if it falls apart here, we can look to buy when everyone is once again calling for $3000.
There is always a trade out there, and we are looking at forex and options for trade setups as they offer better opportunity here. Not that this will not change, but until we get a clearer picture, we are looking for alpha elsewhere. That may change by tomorrow and with cryptos you never know.
There is one specific trade we are looking at and that is Gold! This may be the call of the decade, or just a good trade setup we will let our viewers decide. I'll be clear this is not a 458% possible profit trade! How are those going by the way? I love when someone posts $500% profit potential then updates two hours later when it is up 10%. I'm amazed this even is considered TA. News flash "those days are gone"!
Longterm I am still bullish, which is why I always have long listed, but this does not mean we do not step aside where it is warranted.
On the 15th we brought up where shorts were piling into an already crowded trade with our (uncomfortable short shoes article) and by the 23rd everyone was posting "short squeeze" and "contrarian trade". Well the secret was out and the market simply adjusted as this is how markets work. Of course since it was no longer a secret this gave the shorts time to react and they did. Many slowly closed out of positions, or raised their stop loss levels, in the meantime leveraged longs were piling into the trade. It was simply a "Herd of Contrarians".
So Saturday after a nice spike to the upside, there was absolutely no follow through. Well of course announcing to the opposite side you are headed their way does not take anyone by surprise, they simply prepared and that is what we saw! We anticipated a spike would result in a short squeeze and when this did not play out, and an obvious short trigger appeared we simply told our members on S.C. to exit the position trade from 6200 taking a profit and raise the stop on our BCH' trade to limit risk.
At this point we were worried about the Contrarian of the Contrarians and the market pulling back which was now the true contrarian trade. It did last night, and it fell apart rather quickly, however, bulls rose up through the ashes pushing bitcoin' back to its current level. This may imply there is still some underlying strength or simply a shorter term bull trap. We will just wait and see from the sidelines, relax this afternoon and not have to look at our phone every 5 minutes.
This chart is what we were looking at Saturday. An increase in long interest, a decrease of short interest and the spot market not moving. If money was flowing in this should have resulted in a price spike but it simply did not. This was a sign for us to step aside as the market was not acting right and by raising our stops, we still gave the market a chance but were taking precautionary measures to preserve capital.
Not that the market can not rally from here, but with the current price action the market is mixed and showing indecisiveness, which is as I mentioned earlier in my S.C. article, a coin flip at best.
I'm going out on a limb here.
First we could rally up and the short squeeze play out.
Second we could fall apart and retest 6200.
I will keep you updated to let you know whether I am right or wrong after one or the other happens. I will update every hour or so to feed into the FOMO and FOLYA in the meantime.
LMAO who gets away with this stuff ;)
Seriously the market is simply showing lack of direction so we are stepping aside until we get a clearer picture. We have entered the No-Trade Zone!
Regardless of the direction we still have some exposure if the market does decide to rally, and if it falls apart here, we can look to buy when everyone is once again calling for $3000.
There is always a trade out there, and we are looking at forex and options for trade setups as they offer better opportunity here. Not that this will not change, but until we get a clearer picture, we are looking for alpha elsewhere. That may change by tomorrow and with cryptos you never know.
There is one specific trade we are looking at and that is Gold! This may be the call of the decade, or just a good trade setup we will let our viewers decide. I'll be clear this is not a 458% possible profit trade! How are those going by the way? I love when someone posts $500% profit potential then updates two hours later when it is up 10%. I'm amazed this even is considered TA. News flash "those days are gone"!
Longterm I am still bullish, which is why I always have long listed, but this does not mean we do not step aside where it is warranted.
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