BTCUSD - Outlook Update
Last analysis before the Saturday close it was our anticipation that Bitcoin would trade higher to make an Elliott Wave: d. However upon further analysis we see that Bitcoin had already completed the W:d on May 20th at about 9:00 EST on the 4 Hour Chart. Bitcoin is proving itself to be a very rapid moving financial asset and a more careful analysis approach should be taken to project the movement of this asset class.
Current Bitcoin Analysis
As stated yesterday on the Daily Chart, because price had already closed below the 200 DSMA on May 19th, retested the 200 DSMA on May 20th and 21st and failed to close back above the 200 DSMA we should anticipate more downside price action. Yesterday, May 22nd price closed @37996.10 and gapped open today May 23rd @37404.40 and continued its downtrend.
Current Weekly Bias = Bearish / 4 Hour Chart View
Should Bitcoin remain below the Sunday Close @33035.15, this week it is anticipated the price should continue toward the Elliott Wave: e 161.8 ER / 61.8 APP Confluence between 22238.70 / 20948.50 to complete this current Bear Cycle. I have included Time Price Projection at 200% of May 24th +/- 2 Days. May 2021 Bitcoin Futures expire 28th of May and should probably bring more volatility as positions move into the next month June 2021 contract. (CME - Bitcoin Futures Calendar/Settlements). cmegroup.com Friday May 21st Settlement @35230.00 / Weekly Change -4235.
COT May 18, 2021 - Both Non-Commercials and Commercials holding Net Short positions.
Non-Commercials - Net Short
Non-Commercial Longs 46%
Non-Commercial Shorts 54%
Commercials Net Short
Commercial Longs 49%
Commercial Shorts 51%
Open Interest - Increase
May 11, 2021 8259
May 18, 2021 9160
** This should not be considered trading advice. Feel free to compare my analysis to your own research.
Current Bitcoin Analysis
As stated yesterday on the Daily Chart, because price had already closed below the 200 DSMA on May 19th, retested the 200 DSMA on May 20th and 21st and failed to close back above the 200 DSMA we should anticipate more downside price action. Yesterday, May 22nd price closed @37996.10 and gapped open today May 23rd @37404.40 and continued its downtrend.
Current Weekly Bias = Bearish / 4 Hour Chart View
Should Bitcoin remain below the Sunday Close @33035.15, this week it is anticipated the price should continue toward the Elliott Wave: e 161.8 ER / 61.8 APP Confluence between 22238.70 / 20948.50 to complete this current Bear Cycle. I have included Time Price Projection at 200% of May 24th +/- 2 Days. May 2021 Bitcoin Futures expire 28th of May and should probably bring more volatility as positions move into the next month June 2021 contract. (CME - Bitcoin Futures Calendar/Settlements). cmegroup.com Friday May 21st Settlement @35230.00 / Weekly Change -4235.
COT May 18, 2021 - Both Non-Commercials and Commercials holding Net Short positions.
Non-Commercials - Net Short
Non-Commercial Longs 46%
Non-Commercial Shorts 54%
Commercials Net Short
Commercial Longs 49%
Commercial Shorts 51%
Open Interest - Increase
May 11, 2021 8259
May 18, 2021 9160
** This should not be considered trading advice. Feel free to compare my analysis to your own research.
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