With Wyckoff becomming popular since the drop in may, I halve also concluded that we are in a trading range (TR) between 30-40k. Since bitcoin failed to regain the top half of the TR after it formed a double bottom volume and spread has been trickling off.
Some are saying that wyckoff ackumulation pattern has been invalidated by bitcoin failing to regain 38-40k, see for example @BitcoinMillio18 analysis.
Others, are puzzled by the lack of a releif rally after the fall. See @FlaviusTodorius67.
I am also puzzled by the lack of relief rally, and wonder what the lately slowness of action means. Is it a result of ackumulation, where market makers buy up part of the inventory, which in theory could lead to lower volume? We have also seen more volume in the lower half of the TR, which is typical for ackumulation. At the same time - failure to regain the top half of the TR after the low at least invalidate the low as a spring (imo). Price action is also showing weakness.
I would like to post my idea where I compare the present situation with the one after the fall in nov '18. The semi-transparent green lines on the chart is the weekly candles from this period. If things were to play out the same way the ackumulation would be prolonged, and we would stay in the lower half of the TR until late august. And break out of it in october. It really makes sense to me that side-ways action must continue and a break upwards are not expected in the short term if I factor in fundamentals - present news covering and psychology of investors that just experienced a steep loss. It will take more time to lick the wounds - which also affect when the news coverage can turn positive. Luckily todays news have very short memory :)
This is the scenario that I am awarding the highest probability right now - I were to choose between up, down or sideways. What do you think? I would be happy to learn more on how to interpret the lower volume signature as of lately.
Some are saying that wyckoff ackumulation pattern has been invalidated by bitcoin failing to regain 38-40k, see for example @BitcoinMillio18 analysis.
Others, are puzzled by the lack of a releif rally after the fall. See @FlaviusTodorius67.
I am also puzzled by the lack of relief rally, and wonder what the lately slowness of action means. Is it a result of ackumulation, where market makers buy up part of the inventory, which in theory could lead to lower volume? We have also seen more volume in the lower half of the TR, which is typical for ackumulation. At the same time - failure to regain the top half of the TR after the low at least invalidate the low as a spring (imo). Price action is also showing weakness.
I would like to post my idea where I compare the present situation with the one after the fall in nov '18. The semi-transparent green lines on the chart is the weekly candles from this period. If things were to play out the same way the ackumulation would be prolonged, and we would stay in the lower half of the TR until late august. And break out of it in october. It really makes sense to me that side-ways action must continue and a break upwards are not expected in the short term if I factor in fundamentals - present news covering and psychology of investors that just experienced a steep loss. It will take more time to lick the wounds - which also affect when the news coverage can turn positive. Luckily todays news have very short memory :)
This is the scenario that I am awarding the highest probability right now - I were to choose between up, down or sideways. What do you think? I would be happy to learn more on how to interpret the lower volume signature as of lately.
