I have thought long and hard about posting this particular post. I have shared similar posts over the last year, but never put all of the pieces together for a walkthrough on how Bitcoin has done EXACTLY as expected, institutional players have asserted their authority.
The misconception for majority of retail traders is, big boys in equals price going up.
What they have failed to consider, is the big boys are professional money makers. Wanting to make money from regular retail traders who have no clue and in an unregulated market, it's child's play.
Take a look at the post chronology, all available on TradingView all immutable.
You need to understand why the emotional sentiment makes the chart move the way it does. You see back in 2020 I started making some of the crypto plays public, I have been fortunate enough to have been in and around crypto a very long time both on the tech side as well as being a professional trader. Here's how the Wall Street Cheat Sheet shaped this last couple of moves.
From here we were clearly at a point whereby most people still didn't truly get it, toes were getting dipped in the water and the fireworks about to pop.
Early in 2021; there where clear signs of a re-accumulation as the OPTIMISM phase sunk in.
As price rallied up and more and more retail started to cotton on to what Bitcoin and crypto could be - we arrived at the first phase of true adoption, Venture Capitalist's got in early based on technology - Private Equity and Hedge Funds started to show interest across the industry.
However, like I mentioned above - big boys in doesn't equate to prices going up indefinitely. It usually means they want to make money, to do this they require an accumulation phase of their own. Hence, after a excitement and we started seeing Bitcoin THRILLS it was clear the time was pretty much up.
The blew up a rocket post got a lot of attention; people didn't want the run to end, didn't want to believe the calls for a top. But the writing was on the wall. As many retail traders piled in - often following bad advice. The professionals where simply selling to dumb money.
It was clear to see that institutional money was applying institutional strategies. Things like Wyckoff I posted about in February (again, received negatively) "This is Accumulation" they said...
But take a look at the perfect - even textbook Wyckoff schematic from the top. The moves were defined, the target levels achieved and clear indication of who was driving.
Liquidity pools below;
I had a few technical difficulties trying to stream around this time on TradingView - but recorded an idea instead, this explaining the logic now for the move that was inbound.
Although we had a very ugly Elliott wave 4 down on the weekly, it had started to correct itself as we tagged the 3rd wave of the 5th up.
You could now start to calculate the next top - where and why. Again, pretty obvious.
In this image above the post in August last year explained the levels of liquidity up above the old all time high and why we would quickly tumble from the new all time high.
I posted a few educational post around this time, trying to get people to see where we sat, why we were likely to not tag one hundred thousand plus at this point in time.
Keep in mind the wall street cheat sheet, has mini versions of the same process inside the larger cycle...
Blue sky levels could now be defined - see the dates of these posts;
same post but highlighting the levels
And the outcome;
When you look back at all of the above, it's easy to understand why the drop from the all time high, would be no different from the strategy and moves prior. This allowed for obvious steps and stages on the way down. Again, I pointed this out with some Tradingview education.
Post the line break we would likely see a run on liquidity before the price continued down, knowing the smaller cycles are playing out within the larger - guess what we would do? Up to grab new buyers before a continuation on down.
As we waved goodbye to the panic drop below the Elliott Wave invalidation levels of the previous (1) - a lot of anger set in.
The large players in the game, now want to do a couple of things - they want to sell off early buys for Christmas bonuses and of course, re-accumulate new positions. As retail move into depression - after all, your local influencer told you 1million a Bitcoin 2022.
It's actually been a fun ride.
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Have a good one!!! Trade safe.
Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
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