BTC Bearish Logarithmic XACB Butterfly
تم تحديثه
TL:DR
One of the most powerful forex patterns is visible on the bitcoin chart, but only on the log scale. Ultra bearish if correct.
Intro
(a bit blogposty)
I am constantly looking for the largest market structure I can find and doing such drives me to expand the number of patterns I can easily recall. The harmonic patterns are the trickiest for me due to all of the internal consistencies. I was looking at the bitcoin price action over and over again when I saw the harmonic butterfly. When you look for the ratios within the default XABC pattern you get the wrong ratios but when you put the chart on log scale and make sure your fib retracements are set to log you get almost perfectly retracement/extension ratios we are looking for. This chart formation has taken over 3 years to develop. It should have some power.
More Analysis
The main chart is very explanatory of the big picture so we can dive in to some further analysis. My linked comment will detail my rational from earlier on how I think we are in a bull trap. Saves us the time from going over it here. But first lets zoom in on the XABCD structure.
On the daily zoom in we can see our tolerances for B an C are very tight. Very comforting for the overall structure.
A quirky chart is the 20 day chart which came from my trying to combine some 10 day candle stick formations. Looks pretty bad.
Misc
(ideas y'all can steal as I don't have the energy to flesh out)
The ETHBTC chart is very concerning given the high level of correlation between all crypto. A broadening wedge is a bearish formation and even if price action returns to the base of the wedge ETH takes a hammering against BTC. I would assume that this means that crypto falls victim to the everything bubble but bitcoin recovers first while ETH is still falling. Very tenuous supposition.
This chart is a bit busy conceptually, but meh. We have a red ichimoku cloud that has turned red as of several days ago and I have not heard anyone mention it. Curious but I do know so many people are looking at the 4h chart and may miss this. Pi cycle is bearish, that we know and by itself isn't conclusive because this is the first time it is going live. The on balance EMAs takes the default on balance volume and applies EMAs to get an even wider view of trends. The 20 crossing the 100 is a very major bearish sign of persistent selling.
Final Thoughts
This is all very experimental. We are taking a pattern that I can't verify is suppose to work on the log chart like this. But what I do know is the uptick in volume helps confirm that someone was probably seeing the same thing I did, just a head of me. And this dude had enough BTC to nail in the close. My linked post shows TSLA is in a massive correction. If they and Musk take a loss on BTCUSD the memetic energy into this dump will be incredible. Unlike some people out there, I see some clear indicators that we should not be recklessly long. If this pattern is valid the gold and silver bugs will be crowing victory. BTC is suppose to be currency so it would make sense that a Forex pattern would work. And with Dollar milk shake the last currency standing is suppose to be the dollar and DXY is looking very strong right now while inflation is soaring. Seems easy to think that everyone not in the US will dump BTC to feed themselves.
One of the most powerful forex patterns is visible on the bitcoin chart, but only on the log scale. Ultra bearish if correct.
Intro
(a bit blogposty)
I am constantly looking for the largest market structure I can find and doing such drives me to expand the number of patterns I can easily recall. The harmonic patterns are the trickiest for me due to all of the internal consistencies. I was looking at the bitcoin price action over and over again when I saw the harmonic butterfly. When you look for the ratios within the default XABC pattern you get the wrong ratios but when you put the chart on log scale and make sure your fib retracements are set to log you get almost perfectly retracement/extension ratios we are looking for. This chart formation has taken over 3 years to develop. It should have some power.
More Analysis
The main chart is very explanatory of the big picture so we can dive in to some further analysis. My linked comment will detail my rational from earlier on how I think we are in a bull trap. Saves us the time from going over it here. But first lets zoom in on the XABCD structure.
On the daily zoom in we can see our tolerances for B an C are very tight. Very comforting for the overall structure.
A quirky chart is the 20 day chart which came from my trying to combine some 10 day candle stick formations. Looks pretty bad.
Misc
(ideas y'all can steal as I don't have the energy to flesh out)
The ETHBTC chart is very concerning given the high level of correlation between all crypto. A broadening wedge is a bearish formation and even if price action returns to the base of the wedge ETH takes a hammering against BTC. I would assume that this means that crypto falls victim to the everything bubble but bitcoin recovers first while ETH is still falling. Very tenuous supposition.
This chart is a bit busy conceptually, but meh. We have a red ichimoku cloud that has turned red as of several days ago and I have not heard anyone mention it. Curious but I do know so many people are looking at the 4h chart and may miss this. Pi cycle is bearish, that we know and by itself isn't conclusive because this is the first time it is going live. The on balance EMAs takes the default on balance volume and applies EMAs to get an even wider view of trends. The 20 crossing the 100 is a very major bearish sign of persistent selling.
Final Thoughts
This is all very experimental. We are taking a pattern that I can't verify is suppose to work on the log chart like this. But what I do know is the uptick in volume helps confirm that someone was probably seeing the same thing I did, just a head of me. And this dude had enough BTC to nail in the close. My linked post shows TSLA is in a massive correction. If they and Musk take a loss on BTCUSD the memetic energy into this dump will be incredible. Unlike some people out there, I see some clear indicators that we should not be recklessly long. If this pattern is valid the gold and silver bugs will be crowing victory. BTC is suppose to be currency so it would make sense that a Forex pattern would work. And with Dollar milk shake the last currency standing is suppose to be the dollar and DXY is looking very strong right now while inflation is soaring. Seems easy to think that everyone not in the US will dump BTC to feed themselves.
ملاحظة
This disaster scenario is one step closer to coming true as this wedge breaks down on a brutal start to a 4 hour candle.
ملاحظة
Here is a zoom in of the current action on the log scale. I see a wedge developing against the 200d SMA and that is a pretty dangerous place to have a potential continuation pattern. If this performs to target on the log then the target is down at B on the main chart.
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