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Bitcoin Price and Time Analysis (New ATH or New Bearish Move?)
The chart shows Bitcoin's price movements on the daily timeframe, since ATH. The analysis focuses on the recent corrective phases and potential scenarios ahead. Following the significant corrections, two main outlooks are possible, but at this stage, a definitive conclusion is elusive. Therefore, we will concentrate on the latest movements since the $49,500 low.
Three upward waves are observed, yet they appear corrective rather than impulsive. Each wave exhibits a three-wave structure, suggesting a corrective nature. The last wave's overlap with the first wave's territory reinforces the possibility that all three waves are corrective, potentially signaling a bearish reversal soon.
The second wave is about 5% less than the first wave, and thus, if we have the same expectation for the third wave as the second, the end of the third wave is exactly in the range of the 0.114 Fibonacci level, which aligns with the resistance area between $70,000 and $72,000. This Fibo was drawn from the all-time high to the $49,500 low. Historically, psychological factors often reinforce resistance at these levels, increasing the chances of rejection.
On October 20, the price managed to break above the descending trendline, but this turned out to be a false breakout, as it quickly fell back below the trendline. I anticipate a stronger breakout, accompanied by consolidation above the trendline, which could attract more buyers before potentially starting its downward move.
In terms of timing, a time-based analysis has been applied from the first low to the second low, with the 2.0 extension accurately predicting the next bottom(with a difference of 1 or 2 candles). Extending this to the highs projects a potential peak around October 30. Therefore, a possible reversal is expected between October 28 and October 31, as indicated by the blue vertical lines on the chart.
Several fundamental events are scheduled within this time frame, such as the "JOLTs Job Openings," "GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv," "Personal Spending MoM," "Personal Income MoM," and "Core PCE Price Index MoM." While their direct influence on Bitcoin might be limited, the coincidence with the projected reversal window adds further significance to the analysis.
The chart also shows that each of the previous peaks had reversal signals like spinning top patterns, which have previously played out effectively. Confirmation of the current bearish scenario will require a similar reversal signal or indecision pattern, such as another spinning top or bearish candlestick pattern, to form in the resistance zone.
Three upward waves are observed, yet they appear corrective rather than impulsive. Each wave exhibits a three-wave structure, suggesting a corrective nature. The last wave's overlap with the first wave's territory reinforces the possibility that all three waves are corrective, potentially signaling a bearish reversal soon.
The second wave is about 5% less than the first wave, and thus, if we have the same expectation for the third wave as the second, the end of the third wave is exactly in the range of the 0.114 Fibonacci level, which aligns with the resistance area between $70,000 and $72,000. This Fibo was drawn from the all-time high to the $49,500 low. Historically, psychological factors often reinforce resistance at these levels, increasing the chances of rejection.
On October 20, the price managed to break above the descending trendline, but this turned out to be a false breakout, as it quickly fell back below the trendline. I anticipate a stronger breakout, accompanied by consolidation above the trendline, which could attract more buyers before potentially starting its downward move.
In terms of timing, a time-based analysis has been applied from the first low to the second low, with the 2.0 extension accurately predicting the next bottom(with a difference of 1 or 2 candles). Extending this to the highs projects a potential peak around October 30. Therefore, a possible reversal is expected between October 28 and October 31, as indicated by the blue vertical lines on the chart.
Several fundamental events are scheduled within this time frame, such as the "JOLTs Job Openings," "GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv," "Personal Spending MoM," "Personal Income MoM," and "Core PCE Price Index MoM." While their direct influence on Bitcoin might be limited, the coincidence with the projected reversal window adds further significance to the analysis.
The chart also shows that each of the previous peaks had reversal signals like spinning top patterns, which have previously played out effectively. Confirmation of the current bearish scenario will require a similar reversal signal or indecision pattern, such as another spinning top or bearish candlestick pattern, to form in the resistance zone.
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