BTC Market Analysis 27.09.2024
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📌BTC Market Analysis📌
Overview:
The current BTC market is showing mixed signals, indicating potential for both bullish and bearish scenarios depending on key resistance and support levels. The analysis focuses on a WXY correction pattern on the larger timeframes and a potential bullish continuation on the shorter ones. Here’s a detailed breakdown of the potential paths BTC might take:
📌Bearish Outlook:📌
Scenario 1 - 1D Timeframe:
Chart Reference: BTC 1D Analysis
BTC is currently completing a WXY correction where each wave (W, X, Y) is composed of an ABC pattern:
W = ABC
X = ABC
Y = ABC
Currently, the price is at the top of the B wave of the Y correction, expected to end between $65,600 – $68,100.
Key Levels:
Invalidation Level: $73,770 — If the price closes above this level, the bearish scenario will be invalidated.
Take Profit Area: $44,013 - $40,813 — This zone represents a reasonable target for shorts if the bearish move materializes.
📌Scenario 1 - 4H Timeframe:📌
Chart Reference: BTC 4H Analysis
Zooming into the 4H interval, we can see a more detailed structure of the B wave of the Y correction.
Bearish Divergence is forming on the 4H timeframe, which could signal a potential reversal.
A key diagonal support trendline is visible (marked in aqua on the chart), and this line has been sustaining the bullish trend for the past 21 days.
Strategy:
It is crucial not to prematurely short this market. Instead, wait for a rejection from the box area and look for confirmation if BTC breaks below the trendline. If this happens, the bearish divergence would be confirmed, and a stronger downtrend could ensue.
📌Scenario 2 - Alternative Bearish View:📌
Chart Reference: BTC Bearish Scenario 2
This scenario is currently the least probable but still possible.
The structure could either be a WXY or a simpler ABC correction.
WXY: A complex corrective pattern with internal ABC formations.
ABC: A simpler structure where Wave C must have 5 waves down, while Y has corrective ABC movements down.
The flat correction pattern generally targets 0.786 - 0.886 Fib retracement levels, which in this case are between $68,602 - $71,015.
Key Levels:
Targets: $43,224 - $39,608 — Potential bottom areas for both WXY and ABC scenarios.
Invalidation Level: $73,777 — If BTC breaks and closes above this, the bearish view will be negated.
📌Bullish Outlook:📌
📌Scenario 1 - 1D Timeframe:📌
📌Chart Reference: 📌BTC Bullish Scenario
📌Live Chart:📌 BTC Bullish Scenario Live chart
This is the only bullish scenario currently under consideration. The confirmation for this setup would be a breakout above the previous ATH (All-Time High), which stands at $73,835.
📌Important Note:📌
This wave represents the final leg of the entire bullish cycle. It’s characterized by increased volatility and risk, as the uptrend could end abruptly.
📌How to Trade It:📌
Regularly take profits as the price moves higher.
Gradually exit positions instead of waiting for the absolute top.
The moment BTC hits the actual cycle top, it could see a 20-30% drop in a single day. Recoveries can take months or even years if one gets caught in this position, as the market could transition into a prolonged bear phase until the next bullish cycle.
📌Technical Details:📌
The analysis shows clear wave structures.
Wave 4 bottomed at $49,043, sitting on the 0.5 Fib level, a typical strong support for Wave 4 in Elliott Wave Theory.
📌Targets:📌
$85,406 – $92,679 — These are nominal targets based on current wave projections, without considering extended waves.
Invalidation Level: $52,413 — If the price falls below this point, it would confirm one of the bearish scenarios instead.
⚠️Causion: ⚠️
BTC is currently at a critical juncture. While a bullish continuation is possible, it requires breaking the previous ATH to confirm. On the other hand, the bearish scenarios provide multiple levels of confirmation, including bearish divergences and trendline breaks, which could suggest a deeper correction if confirmed.
Traders should maintain a cautious approach, utilize appropriate risk management, and stay nimble as the market reveals more information.
⚠️ Disclaimer: ⚠️
🚫 This is not financial advice. Trade responsibly and conduct your own research before making any decisions.🚫
Overview:
The current BTC market is showing mixed signals, indicating potential for both bullish and bearish scenarios depending on key resistance and support levels. The analysis focuses on a WXY correction pattern on the larger timeframes and a potential bullish continuation on the shorter ones. Here’s a detailed breakdown of the potential paths BTC might take:
📌Bearish Outlook:📌
Scenario 1 - 1D Timeframe:
Chart Reference: BTC 1D Analysis
BTC is currently completing a WXY correction where each wave (W, X, Y) is composed of an ABC pattern:
W = ABC
X = ABC
Y = ABC
Currently, the price is at the top of the B wave of the Y correction, expected to end between $65,600 – $68,100.
Key Levels:
Invalidation Level: $73,770 — If the price closes above this level, the bearish scenario will be invalidated.
Take Profit Area: $44,013 - $40,813 — This zone represents a reasonable target for shorts if the bearish move materializes.
📌Scenario 1 - 4H Timeframe:📌
Chart Reference: BTC 4H Analysis
Zooming into the 4H interval, we can see a more detailed structure of the B wave of the Y correction.
Bearish Divergence is forming on the 4H timeframe, which could signal a potential reversal.
A key diagonal support trendline is visible (marked in aqua on the chart), and this line has been sustaining the bullish trend for the past 21 days.
Strategy:
It is crucial not to prematurely short this market. Instead, wait for a rejection from the box area and look for confirmation if BTC breaks below the trendline. If this happens, the bearish divergence would be confirmed, and a stronger downtrend could ensue.
📌Scenario 2 - Alternative Bearish View:📌
Chart Reference: BTC Bearish Scenario 2
This scenario is currently the least probable but still possible.
The structure could either be a WXY or a simpler ABC correction.
WXY: A complex corrective pattern with internal ABC formations.
ABC: A simpler structure where Wave C must have 5 waves down, while Y has corrective ABC movements down.
The flat correction pattern generally targets 0.786 - 0.886 Fib retracement levels, which in this case are between $68,602 - $71,015.
Key Levels:
Targets: $43,224 - $39,608 — Potential bottom areas for both WXY and ABC scenarios.
Invalidation Level: $73,777 — If BTC breaks and closes above this, the bearish view will be negated.
📌Bullish Outlook:📌
📌Scenario 1 - 1D Timeframe:📌
📌Chart Reference: 📌BTC Bullish Scenario
📌Live Chart:📌 BTC Bullish Scenario Live chart
This is the only bullish scenario currently under consideration. The confirmation for this setup would be a breakout above the previous ATH (All-Time High), which stands at $73,835.
📌Important Note:📌
This wave represents the final leg of the entire bullish cycle. It’s characterized by increased volatility and risk, as the uptrend could end abruptly.
📌How to Trade It:📌
Regularly take profits as the price moves higher.
Gradually exit positions instead of waiting for the absolute top.
The moment BTC hits the actual cycle top, it could see a 20-30% drop in a single day. Recoveries can take months or even years if one gets caught in this position, as the market could transition into a prolonged bear phase until the next bullish cycle.
📌Technical Details:📌
The analysis shows clear wave structures.
Wave 4 bottomed at $49,043, sitting on the 0.5 Fib level, a typical strong support for Wave 4 in Elliott Wave Theory.
📌Targets:📌
$85,406 – $92,679 — These are nominal targets based on current wave projections, without considering extended waves.
Invalidation Level: $52,413 — If the price falls below this point, it would confirm one of the bearish scenarios instead.
⚠️Causion: ⚠️
BTC is currently at a critical juncture. While a bullish continuation is possible, it requires breaking the previous ATH to confirm. On the other hand, the bearish scenarios provide multiple levels of confirmation, including bearish divergences and trendline breaks, which could suggest a deeper correction if confirmed.
Traders should maintain a cautious approach, utilize appropriate risk management, and stay nimble as the market reveals more information.
⚠️ Disclaimer: ⚠️
🚫 This is not financial advice. Trade responsibly and conduct your own research before making any decisions.🚫
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Closed few trades short,long,short and looking for additional short thats on latest chart.
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