BITCOIN - Wyckoff Distribution Top

BTC looks to be in a Wyckoff distribution top.

The giveaway is the "initial collapsing structure." This shows the trend is probably changing. A strong trend should not collapse below previous high.

Price probably won't get above resistance 2.

Then back to the downtrend.

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Correction:

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Testing Resistance 1

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Weekly candle is young but it has wicked into the 0.382 yet again - a bearish rejection.

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Price recovering upward but now drifting sideways showing impetus to the upside is probably waining.

It looks like an AB have formed with the down wave pulling back down to 0.618.

Assuming it is a B then good chance price tops here to complete the C wave of a 1:1 ABC.

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Here's the bullish case. Wave 3 could take price to the 1.618 fib.

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Price fake-out above UT (to form UTAD) followed by bearish engulfing candle shows momentum is very much to the downside.

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Price looking bearish after UTAD with 2 engulfling candles taking price back below resistance (in a pattern similar to "falling three methods"), followed by downside fake-out to form LPSY. Wedge broke to the downside and that is probably upside impetus done for a while.

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"Supply Trendline" is a feature of re-distribution but in crypto it seems to be relevant every time. Here we can see the breakdown of a contracting triangle which in crypto is more commonly a bearish reversal pattern - shows the trend has probably now ended. I doubt price will get above 40K with more than a whimper from here.

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Interesting moment here. Will price push through on and above supply trendline or will it be a wicked fake-out. No prizes for guessing which I think it will be.

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Price just tagged upper side of rising wedge and also 0.618 fib.

Heavy bearish divergence on 4hr RSI shows momentum is changing.

If price pops out the top then likely it will top at the 1:1 43K.

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It looks likely price will see 43K where it will find heavy resistance at SOW to not return into distribution area.

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Slight amendment.

ST and UT because it was a continuation pattern concluded after a third thrust. Collapsing structure shows weakness in trend. UTAD not off the table yet.

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43K SOW is the perimeter from previous HTF distribution top.