بتكوينشراء
Houston, do we have a problem? THE TRAP I've been waiting for..
تم تحديثه
Hello everyone! We have some seriously confusing price action in Bitcoin! I'm here to hopefully help some of you.
We'll dive into technicals first, then the psychology behind it.
On the daily, this dump stopped on a dime at the 100 MA.
Prior resistance was the 50 MA. Why weren't we able to re-test it with the strength of this drop?
On the weekly, RSI is showing hidden bearish divergence. (This is important.)
On the weekly, the current candle shows a MASSIVE inverted bullish hammer. (Also very important.)
On the daily, RSI is still above 50.
On the 4H, RSI is well below 40, indicating bearish pressure is building. There is however, strong hidden bullish divergence. (That means whales are buying the bags you got stopped out of.)
Price is situated only $100 above bear pennant resistance.
4H 100 MA caused tweezer bottoms. This is where big money is *beginning* to accumulate.
Current support for price is at around $3,659. This was resistance since Jan. 10th. It should be STRONG support.
Also consider, the .618 of this entire move upwards so far rests on ... YUP, exactly $3,659. This would insinuate that Bitcoin just finished a larger degree wave 1 and is in the process of finishing wave 2. Guess what's next? ;)
Current resistance for price is at around $3,895. This was briefly very strong support so it should be strong resistance. I would feel very comfortable placing a stop buy at around $3,900 if I wasn't already invested. I strongly suspect that once we reach $3,900 again, price will move VIOLENTLY upwards.
DON'T GET TRICKED OUT OF YOUR POSITIONS!
We'll dive into technicals first, then the psychology behind it.
On the daily, this dump stopped on a dime at the 100 MA.
Prior resistance was the 50 MA. Why weren't we able to re-test it with the strength of this drop?
On the weekly, RSI is showing hidden bearish divergence. (This is important.)
On the weekly, the current candle shows a MASSIVE inverted bullish hammer. (Also very important.)
On the daily, RSI is still above 50.
On the 4H, RSI is well below 40, indicating bearish pressure is building. There is however, strong hidden bullish divergence. (That means whales are buying the bags you got stopped out of.)
Price is situated only $100 above bear pennant resistance.
4H 100 MA caused tweezer bottoms. This is where big money is *beginning* to accumulate.
Current support for price is at around $3,659. This was resistance since Jan. 10th. It should be STRONG support.
Also consider, the .618 of this entire move upwards so far rests on ... YUP, exactly $3,659. This would insinuate that Bitcoin just finished a larger degree wave 1 and is in the process of finishing wave 2. Guess what's next? ;)
Current resistance for price is at around $3,895. This was briefly very strong support so it should be strong resistance. I would feel very comfortable placing a stop buy at around $3,900 if I wasn't already invested. I strongly suspect that once we reach $3,900 again, price will move VIOLENTLY upwards.
DON'T GET TRICKED OUT OF YOUR POSITIONS!
ملاحظة
Now, psychology. :DFirst off, I've been exclaiming for the past few weeks that if Bitcoin were to produce a higher high for the first time in over a year, there would be a sizeable dump immediately thereafter for a reaccumulation process. Those of you that think Bitcoin creating a higher high and immediately continuing up PAST that point aren't keeping in mind the psychology behind it.
If you were a sizeable whale sitting on the sidelines, waiting over a year for a crystal clear signal that Bitcoin is ACTUALLY strong, this is it. What do you do next? Dump it. Why buy $4,5xx Bitcoin before the moon when you can buy $3,6xx Bitcoin?
This dump was caused mostly by retail FOMO. EVERYONE was talking about 4k. So, as soon as Bitcoin cleared
4K we had a SIZEABLE jump in longs. Where do you think most people put their stops on spot? BINGO.Nudge the price downward into the liquidity pool and let market stops do the rest. Domino effect.
Meanwhile, as a whale, you have buy orders set at the bottom of the dump. Aka tweezer bottoms.
Notice longs have barely even fluctuated today after a $400 drop?
Also notice shorts decreased substantially?
Is it beginning to make sense yet?
THIS is the trap I've been waiting for. Lots of people just got shook out of their positions, and guess what? We aint done going up yet. We're still my by trendlines ABOVE the bear pennant, but very close to re-testing it as support.
Textbook long trade entry: wait for the breakout, and buy the pullback ONLY IF it confirms support at the prior resistance of the breakout. The support Bitcoin should hold if it is bullish has been resistance for a month and a half. It will be STRONG.
The weekly hidden bearish divergence will likely take us down farther in coming days to test the pennant for support.
The inverted bullish hammer shows we will likely AT LEAST re-test the resistance we fell from.
If support holds at or around $3,650 we will begin wave 3 upwards.
This will be a violent move and I suspect it will be a bart, to catch and liquidate retail shorts.
BE PREPARED!
ملاحظة
I have STRONG suspicions we will BART some time this week in BTC.
I am testing an RSI strategy out, and via backtesting, any time this line is held on the 4 + 6 hour timeframes, a bart follows.
I think the bear market, for now, is dead.
I hate and love to say it.
ملاحظة
Fair warning, the bear flag we are currently forming has a target of around the .786 retracement located at $3,360.Considering how this dump happened, the bears either need to follow through within the next day or two, or we're going back up to re-test highs.
A drop to $3,360 would arguably shake a lot of people to the core including myself, and bear posts will come out in force about dropping to new lows again. Especially considering if we drop to that level we will be at the very bottom of the bear pennant, and it looks to me like we'd be breaking it. A WICK to $3,360 is the best we can hope for if the bears do end up following through.
I still think we are very bullish but the psychology side of me believes it CAN happen, because that would be a great way to shake retail out who just FOMO'd in.
My most recent update shows that if my RSI strategy is valid, the charts were painted this way to scare people into believing we will drop that low.
Something tells me this bearish momentum isn't over yet. Dear lord do I hope I'm right about my strategy.
Really conflicted here, I'll be honest.
ملاحظة
While Bitcoin may eventually find new lows, take a look at what alts have been doing lately.Rumor has it ENJIN is the official Crypto wallet for Samsung
Ark just being Ark
Hypercash.
I'm calling it now. As far as alts are concerned, we're at bottom. Not a doubt in my mind. If you aren't accumulating top alts right now for the long term you are quite literally crazy IMO.
As far as Bitcoin is concerned, I do believe we stand a higher chance at hitting new lows than people want you to believe, but my gut tells me $3,120 is or is very near bottom.
ملاحظة
Not gonna lie, this is ugly.Target for this bearflag as we speak is $3,400.
$3,820 seems to be immediate strong support, a fall below $3,800 would be very bearish IMO.
ملاحظة
Seems we are stuck between the resistance line of prior price tops, and the support of the bullish trendline ATM.
IMO we could test support a bit lower from here first around $3,650, but I think we are seeing the start of an eventual rally to around $4,800. Depending on what happens when we get there, we could break free of 6k and possibly aim higher.
I don't see $3,120 being the bottom for long term, but I can see it being bottom for now and the months ahead.
It is of my opinion that a very sizable bounce upwards is in order first in order to even think about breaking our current low.
I also do not discount the fact that the weekly has yet to establish bullish divergence. Weekly bullish divergence is something I've been waiting to possibly see as that would be IMO a very substantial indicator that the bottom is in fact in. Though, it didn't happen the first time we entered oversold on the weekly prior to long term liftoff so take that with a grain of salt.
That said I believe Bitcoins ATH was a 5th wave up, and if so, this could be the worst bear market in Bitcoins history due to a structure-wide 2nd wave correction rather than a subwave. On the BLX chart Bitcoin dumped ~93% on the 2nd correctional subwave early on, so that alone tells me we could eventually see lower lows if I am in fact correct.
Personally, I'd like to see a genuine support test here to show the real strength of buying momentum. The $3,650 range was originally support on the first rally, then flipped to resistance when we fell from 4.1k. It was resistance all the way until the 2nd pump smashed right through it with force. I believe it should now be flipped to very strong support and I would start to feel bearish again with a clean break of it.
$3,659 is the .618 Fib retracement of this entire swing up so far, whereas the .786 lies at around $3,500. I can say with the utmost confidence that if the .618 area holds we will be massively strengthening the bulls case for much much higher prices. Though, the .786 is arguably one of the best places to long.
Technically, as it stands, we're at and holding the 50% retracement but in Bitcoin the only time the 50% retracement usually holds is if we are right in the middle of a rally. That said, if we do hold support above $3,500 at least, I believe we will see the beginning of a third and powerful wave up to test higher supply levels. Keep in mind this is now the third time supply has been tested in the upper $4,100/$4,200 levels so I expect them to be very weak once we revisit them again.
With all this considered, I think the people shorting support right now aren't necessarily in the wrong, but I also do not believe they have much time to cover before we make our next leg up.
A confirmed daily below $3,500 would have me feeling incredibly bearish again.
At the very least, I expect a re-test of current resistance in the lower
4K region before any real bearish momentum again.I suspect by the beginning of May we will finally know our true long-term destination.
Good luck everyone!
ملاحظة
We're consolidating against the bear pennant resistance.
Considering we haven't had any significant dump attempts YET, I believe there may be a stop hunt prior to lifting off.
If indeed we drop further to test support I have a feeling it will be very short lived and will wick hard.
Be prepared.
ملاحظة
Lets see what the new daily does.
If this holds we could end up very green a few days from now.
RSI strategy is holding, and $3,659 is the .618, so if we consolidate here for a bit and then drop that would be a very bearish sign. I'm expecting this to be bought up fairly heavily, so we will see.
ملاحظة
50 MA has now crossed the 100/200 MA's on the 12H.
This only happened twice in 2018.
ملاحظة
I'd like to take the time to share a few things I am currently seeing. I am not going to pretend I know how retracements work in detail, so I am only showing what I see as possibilities. Whether they are right or wrong, I'm all ears on any technical reasons why these counts may not be suitable or are outright wrong. I'm here to learn so I thought I'd attempt getting some feedback on a few possible scenarios I am seeing.Looks like we slammed our head against the wall at the .382 fib of this current upswing so far.
Middle time frames are currently showing some divergence in price, especially on the 4h.
A fractal I've noticed in the past looks to be playing out eerily similar to that of past price action as well.
I see two options here IMO as far as where price can travel, and both scenarios are assuming we are in an ABC correction from the top we experienced at $4,200.
First scenario:
The .618 retracement located at $3,659 could of served as our "A" wave.
If we retrace up to resistance, the .786 for this swing lies at around $4,073. I would expect $3,659 to be A wave, $4,073 to be B wave, then a final destination of around $3,500 for C wave.
OR
We could be forming a bullish falling wedge, where $3,659 was the completion of "A" wave, our recent rally up to $3,880 being "B" wave, and a final 5 waves down for "C" wave with a destination of around $3,328. $3,328 is the 2.618 Fib extension of my current bear count downwards.
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