Last Friday, the total market value of China's BYD exceeded one trillion yuan and became a hot search on Weibo. I wonder if the total market value of digital currency fell below one trillion yuan today, but whether anyone can pay attention to it. Since last year, I have been warning of the risk, when the weekly top deviation was formed, I published an article, if you see any friends should remember. At the time, I thought bitcoin's adjustment target, at least weekly, support should be around ma144. What happened later, everyone knows, not much to repeat. But after bitcoin fell to ma144, there was not a real bottom, and the rebound was delayed.So now everyone is confused.To be honest, Bitcoin has no fundamentals to support it, and it is impossible to support prices by faith alone.So what we can refer to is only a few historical trends. Looking back at the past several so-called bear markets, at least three can be a reference, 2015 and 2018 and 2020, in the early days because there are not enough moving averages, can not reference. In these three adjustments, each time is below ma144, shock finishing, complete the bottom.If we believe history will repeat, now may be the bottom of a bear market.Of course, digital currencies are not stocks, so their volatility can be very large, even if a weak rebound, often at 20%, often mistook us for a reversal. From the daily trend, there are the conditions for the bottom deviation, so there may soon be a strong rebound, but I don't think the left trade is a reasonable choice.Although I was criticized for being too conservative, in a highly speculative market, I wanted to choose the right in a point.That is to start with the bottom departure. Let the bullet fly for a while, no hurry.
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