Regression Wave - LONG for BTC..?
Forget those Moon long-term charts everyone posts showing BTC's trajectory to the 
1M*
While we go through this chop which I am struggling to predict - most ideas on TV are currently moon or doom. I have taken a step-back (from the hourly) and I've been doing research on Progression Waves - i noticed Alessio Rastani reviewing Tesla.
Based off ATL and ATH the regression wave can identify the long-term trend of BTC. This is a macro tool (long-term on a monthly, possibly daily basis).
The asset will typically travel along this channel and never stray too far from the centre median line - occasionally an event will accelerate it out of the channel like BTC in 2017 breaking the upper line but it will often return back to the centre of the channel if it cannot create a new ATH. Look at how price plays off the line early 2018. Notice 19th July 2019 - where the push to create a higher high failed on the line.
Also notice the pink boxes - when we break the Median line is touched there is large movement in price and peaks/troughs in RSI. this is true for Upper and Lower lines.
What does this mean for now?
- Breaking the centre line, typically there is a continuation although there can be some large pull-backs. I would not be surprised if we hit 11k and revisit $8,500.
- Golden Cross is due in 2 Weeks
- Key is the trajectory - we are moving above the line and retesting.
- This suggests a possible $15+k target
"Hang on a minute! We create these channels all the time on charts" - Yes, which means the chart could be broken and reset (Up or down). This is straight forward when setting a new ATH but new ATL? That is not really possible unless there is an all out collapse - e.g. bitconnect thus the trajectory is always up... which opens up a whole lot of questions right?
Always a Newbie
Best, Hard Forky
* I'm sure I have posted a few in my time ;)
1M* While we go through this chop which I am struggling to predict - most ideas on TV are currently moon or doom. I have taken a step-back (from the hourly) and I've been doing research on Progression Waves - i noticed Alessio Rastani reviewing Tesla.
Based off ATL and ATH the regression wave can identify the long-term trend of BTC. This is a macro tool (long-term on a monthly, possibly daily basis).
The asset will typically travel along this channel and never stray too far from the centre median line - occasionally an event will accelerate it out of the channel like BTC in 2017 breaking the upper line but it will often return back to the centre of the channel if it cannot create a new ATH. Look at how price plays off the line early 2018. Notice 19th July 2019 - where the push to create a higher high failed on the line.
Also notice the pink boxes - when we break the Median line is touched there is large movement in price and peaks/troughs in RSI. this is true for Upper and Lower lines.
What does this mean for now?
- Breaking the centre line, typically there is a continuation although there can be some large pull-backs. I would not be surprised if we hit 11k and revisit $8,500.
- Golden Cross is due in 2 Weeks
- Key is the trajectory - we are moving above the line and retesting.
- This suggests a possible $15+k target
"Hang on a minute! We create these channels all the time on charts" - Yes, which means the chart could be broken and reset (Up or down). This is straight forward when setting a new ATH but new ATL? That is not really possible unless there is an all out collapse - e.g. bitconnect thus the trajectory is always up... which opens up a whole lot of questions right?
Always a Newbie
Best, Hard Forky
* I'm sure I have posted a few in my time ;)
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