Parabolic pattern with possible repeat 2013 situation with -90%

Parabolic pattern of minimum and maximum values of BTCUSD ends with turning point at 40 000 at end of January.
If the scenario from 2013 repeats the first fall will be approximately -70% from 40 000 to 12000
But big fall could come if some "black Swan" news appear, e.g big exchange or wallet becomes insolvent and fails in bankruptcy.
The big crush could be between 240 000 and 24 000 from middle of 2018 till middle of 2019