Bitcoin Daily Update (day 186)

١ سبتمبر ٢٠١٨

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

1 - 3 days: < $6,000 | 1 month predictions: < $5,750 by 9/24 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30
Previous analysis/position: “Am waiting patiently to see if we get one last squeeze to $7,200 which would put us at a major resistance cluster. If that happens then I would expect it to occur in the next 12-24 hours.” / Sidelines, getting orders set to sell breakdown and waiting for final confirmation to start entering.
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: S = $7,025 | R = $7,060 & $7,093
BTCUSDSHORTS: Getting first sign of a reversal (daily hammer forming). On a red 8.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = +2.82% | 26 = +3.91%
50 & 128 MA’s: Price back on top of 50 MA and testing for support | 128 = -3.51%
Volume: Price goes up, volume goes down. Indicates demand becoming exhausted.
FIB’s: 0.5 = 0.618 = $6,804 | $7.092 | 0.382 = $7,380
Candlestick analysis: Doji/spinning top following two hanging men
Ichimoku Cloud: 1d, 12h & 6h cloud acting as strong resistance.
TD’ Sequential: Red 1
Visible Range: 1 month lookback has high volume node at $7,070. The developing volume area (VA) is like a volume weighted bollinger band. We are hugging the top band on the following periods: 1d, 5d, 1m, 3m'
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +0.57% | 24h = +1.2% | 1w = +4.75% | 2w = +8.01% | 1m = -8.94%
Bollinger Bands: Pulling back from top band, expect it to retest MA at $6,600
Trendline: Connect Aug 22nd to Aug 26th. Yesterday’s violation could be a simple fakeout.
Daily Trend: Bullish/choppy
Fractals: UP at $7,117 could mark the top of this rally. DOWN = $6,222
On Balance Volume: Bull div’ on weekly
ADX: ADX appears to have found a bottom. Surprised to see -DI and +DI diverging in a bullish manner.
Chaikin Money Flow: Bull div’ on daily shouldn’t last long based on how hard/fast weekly is turning over
RSI (30 setting): W = 50.02 | D = 51.82
Stoch: Trying to re cross > 80 on daily. 3d still has plenty of room to go.

Summary: Believe that this weekend will be the best opportunity to re open shorts. Time to zoom in a little bit for more precise entries. If the price breaks down $7,000 then it should form a double top from the past week and another lower high for 2018. 4h chart is showing hanging men and shooting stars at resistance while the stoch flashes a sell signal.



ETH:USD has remained inside the descending triangle (1h - 4h) / bear flag (1d) and is threatening to breakdown below a bearish cloud on the 4h chart. That could provide a low risk/high reward entry with opportunities to add upon triangle breakdown and breakdown of $267 support (green line).



ETH:BTC looks ready to breakdown 0.04. Last time that happened (Dec 2017) it feel straight to 0.025 in 4 days. I have an order set to open a short at 0.03948. If it continues to bounce to 0.042 then I will start entering due to resistance cluster from: trendline, TDST, established horizontal resistance, daily BB MA.

١ سبتمبر ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

Have started to build my short positions using 5:1 leverage. Currently 38% entered and will be adding if/when it moves in my favor. If we pump from here I will not be adding. Stop set at $326 and 0.0425 for ETH and I would put it around $7,550 for BTC. Seeing the volume spike get overwhelmed with supply and the retrace that followed has provided the confirmation I need to enter. Good luck!

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