Technical analysis update: Bitcoin (30th December 2021)

Recently a bullish breakout from the pattern resembling falling wedge occurred. However, price halted its rise at 52 098 USD; then price retracted back below the lower bound of the neutral zone. This lower bound continues to gain importance as bearish breakouts and retracements continue to occur along it. We will observe price action near this price level and we will watch out whether price manages to rise back above it or continue its decline. At the moment, we continue to maintain a bearish notion on BTCUSD. We still expect an eventual retest of 41 967 USD price level. Our short-term price target of 42 500 USD for BTCUSD remains in place.

Illustration 1.01

Illustration 1.01 shows the hourly chart of BTCUSD. It also shows a pattern resembling a falling wedge. Additionally, this chart exhibits bullish breakout followed by exhaustion and bearish retracement in price.

Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI halted its rise slightly above 50 points. After that it reversed its direction to the downside which is bearish. Stochastic also reversed back to the downside and turned bearish. MACD started to flatten and its histogram started to decline. ADX still contains relatively high value but it continues to gradually decline. However, it is possible that ADX may go for a second lower peak (lower than one which was reached on 20th December 2021), especially if selling pressure returns. DM+ and DM- continue to show bearish conditions. Overall, the daily time frame exhibits bearish conditions for BTCUSD.

Illustration 1.02

Illustration 1.03 shows the hourly chart of BTCUSD. It also indicates a series of bearish breakouts below the neutral zone.

Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD and Stochastic continue to develop bearish medium-term structures. Additionally, DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions in the market. However, ADX contains a relatively low value which suggests that the prevailing trend remains neutral. Because of that BTCUSD allows for two possible trade setups with long position being taken above the Resistance 2 (with stop-loss below it) and short position being taken below the Resistance 1 (with stop-loss above it).

Illustration 1.03

Illustration 1.03 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. It also indicates values at some of the recent peaks in BTCUSD.

Support and resistance
Major support level is at 28 600 USD; major resistance level is at 69 000 USD. Short-term resistance (Resistance 1) is at 48 834 USD, while medium-term resistance (Resistance 2) lies at 52 956 USD. Between these two price levels lies the neutral zone. BTCUSD enters bearish conditions below it and bullish conditions above it. Other resistance levels appear at 59 564 USD and at 64 895 USD. Other support levels can be found at 42 900 USD and at 37 573 USD. Additionally, support level can be also found at recent low of 41 967 USD.

Illustration 1.04

In our opinion if BTCUSD breaks below the recent low at 41 967 USD then conditions will dramatically worsen for Bitcoin. However, we are open to reasses our bearish view if price manages to hold within the neutral zone and then break out above it.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.

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