Bitcoin has printed a two-year high, and established itself above the 50000 USD mark.
The next leg up is in preparation. For this to happen, this market needed to extricate itself from the long trading channel that had supported it since the end of the 2022 bear market. Channels are useful, until they are no longer, but still fulfill a little bit of support while we are close, but not for long.
At the top the market has created a first wave, and is currently completing its retrace, or correction. This provides a good entry point to ride the market more safely.
The next leg up is in preparation. For this to happen, this market needed to extricate itself from the long trading channel that had supported it since the end of the 2022 bear market. Channels are useful, until they are no longer, but still fulfill a little bit of support while we are close, but not for long.
At the top the market has created a first wave, and is currently completing its retrace, or correction. This provides a good entry point to ride the market more safely.
تعليق:
The market extended the invitation by complementing the initial drop with a triangle in wave B and a lower low in wave C, to show a perfect zig-zag correction for wave two. This looks good and is a healthy development.
Meanwhile the healthy reports from the US bitcoin funds are piling up, showing enormous inflows of capital for coin purchases. The only way this supply/demand inbalance can resolved is with higher prices. The signs are getting clearer that this halving cycle is shaping up like no other.
Meanwhile the healthy reports from the US bitcoin funds are piling up, showing enormous inflows of capital for coin purchases. The only way this supply/demand inbalance can resolved is with higher prices. The signs are getting clearer that this halving cycle is shaping up like no other.
تعليق:
This market needs to move forward. It is time. We had a needed correction for a few days and that should be enough.
To get to 100k by time of halving, the market needs to conquer a few resistances before price discovery.
The structural resistances from historical price action center around the 59000 mark, and the all-time high at or before 69000.
The market just took out the top trend line of its trading channel from November 2021, but it has not crossed the 23.6% Fibonacci trend line yet. It is parallel to the channel, just a few dollars above the channel, and is really the stronger line that has defined the upper bound. The recent market high, was in fact limited by this line, clearly. The line is now at about 53200. The next line up, the 38.2% is around 72000, also a good goal for the near future.
To get to 100k by time of halving, the market needs to conquer a few resistances before price discovery.
The structural resistances from historical price action center around the 59000 mark, and the all-time high at or before 69000.
The market just took out the top trend line of its trading channel from November 2021, but it has not crossed the 23.6% Fibonacci trend line yet. It is parallel to the channel, just a few dollars above the channel, and is really the stronger line that has defined the upper bound. The recent market high, was in fact limited by this line, clearly. The line is now at about 53200. The next line up, the 38.2% is around 72000, also a good goal for the near future.
تعليق:
This has taken a lot longer than I thought, obviously. The market is a lot more patient than any of us.
In the meantime it even squeezed out a new multi- year high, just short of 53k.
Some of the most important structural aspects in the market are the Fibonacci-based channel trend lines. The market runs into them all time and reverses course. Just today, the new high bumped into an overhead line and dropped down exactly onto the 0.238 fib line, as can be seen in this chart.
In the meantime it even squeezed out a new multi- year high, just short of 53k.
Some of the most important structural aspects in the market are the Fibonacci-based channel trend lines. The market runs into them all time and reverses course. Just today, the new high bumped into an overhead line and dropped down exactly onto the 0.238 fib line, as can be seen in this chart.
تعليق:
Today’s bottom is the intersection of the two most recent major trends as shown in this overview.
تعليق:
The importance of the 0.236 Fib line is clearly evident. It defined the channel for the start of the trend from 38.5k, and then became the support of the next phase starting February 9 or so.
The next phase of the market will likely see the rise to the 0.500 Fib line to reach the chart resistance around 59/60 k.
The next phase of the market will likely see the rise to the 0.500 Fib line to reach the chart resistance around 59/60 k.
تعليق:
I am still undecided where to place the end of wave two. In the chart it is still at the lowest point, after the first three-wave correction phase. The last low is higher, and the entire sequence since that wave two end looks like a leading diagonal, being retraced almost 100%, which happens quite often. The speed of this today, reaching a new high, and then plunging to almost the start, seems just fitting for that scenario.
تعليق:
Based on the idea that the current market just under 53000 is formed as a leading diagonal,, we can project a target, several targets possible.
But I am just going to pick the 3.618 multiple, to set the price at 59.6 k, in confluence with the next structural resistance from 2021, at 59.2 k.
See you at the top.
But I am just going to pick the 3.618 multiple, to set the price at 59.6 k, in confluence with the next structural resistance from 2021, at 59.2 k.
See you at the top.
تعليق:
Not that much has changed, except time has passed. The market seems to be nurturing a new bullish wave emerging, after forming the first and second waves in minute degree. The end of wave two was pulled down a little more, so we can update the fib extension for the top to 85000.
تعليق:
This is probably last call for safe coin buys for the next ride.
تعليق:
The market can squeeze the last penny out of a situation. When the bears came running out of the woods smelling easy money, game was over.
A new wave sprang from the bottom, just as Elliott promised.
After printing a nice wave with fourth wave triangle, we should expect the fifth wave to run to about 52.5 k, perhaps even the year high, for a break.
A new wave sprang from the bottom, just as Elliott promised.
After printing a nice wave with fourth wave triangle, we should expect the fifth wave to run to about 52.5 k, perhaps even the year high, for a break.
تعليق:
I should have actually marked the new wave in Miniscule degree, I suppose. We are looking at small minute bars. Wave degrees are always relative, we don’t really know exactly how many degrees we need to fill this distance to 85 k or so.
تعليق:
The market didn’t take long to tell us that the first wave was already completed with the printing of the triangle. It quickly evolved into a larger structure that could only be the second wave of the first run up.
This all has been looking very clean and bullish from the starting block.
This all has been looking very clean and bullish from the starting block.
تعليق:
Suggested target of current wave three is about 53400.
But could well be another one of the given levels.
But could well be another one of the given levels.
تعليق:
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This was a timely opportunity for entry, if that’s what you need. I suggested to someone to buy anywhere in the 40 k range. I also suggested that 40000 would never be seen again for bitcoin. This is a different bitcoin market than any time before.