At the moment we see a bullish flag forming on the hourly which will likely take BTCUSD and the whole crypto market up another leg. I would argue that if it finds resistance at $3630 and stays below that level for some consolidation while we see a rise once again in short positions, that scenario will likely result in higher highs over the coming days and will also indicate that a bottom is likely in for the crypto bear market of 2018.
If, on the other hand, we see a move straight to $3800 while the volume of BTCUSD shorts drops once again significantly we are likely in for a renewed downtrend.
At the moment I believe that the bottom is not yet in. Since it is shorts that play a large role in putting in bottoms if the short interest does not quickly rise towards ATH levels as it did recently on the way down, I believe that we may even see a wick down on the weekly that is reminiscent of the 2015 bear market bottom and takes the price briefly to $2200 before settling back above $3000.
If, on the other hand, we see a move straight to $3800 while the volume of BTCUSD shorts drops once again significantly we are likely in for a renewed downtrend.
At the moment I believe that the bottom is not yet in. Since it is shorts that play a large role in putting in bottoms if the short interest does not quickly rise towards ATH levels as it did recently on the way down, I believe that we may even see a wick down on the weekly that is reminiscent of the 2015 bear market bottom and takes the price briefly to $2200 before settling back above $3000.
