I've Called Nearly Every Large Move For Bitcoin For Over A Year
تم تحديثه
It's true.
Here's where I called the bottom in early 2019:
Here's a pretty decent projection I made in February, 2019:
Also nailed this one:
Here's where I called the top in June, 2019:
Here's where I called the bottom in late 2019. Unfortunately, I didn't initially forecast the following move, but I did suggest that a breakdown of certain levels could mean that 4.2K would be tested in the short term:
Here's where I called the the current move towards $10-12K, while prices were still below 7K:
I've made some crappy calls on altcoins, but overall I've done a greatjob of forecasting the larger, more important moves for this market. Sometimes it's fun to remind myself of this, because I have indeed put a lot of time into my analysis.
Anyway, here's an update on the current situation. I've removed MA's on this analysis because I think it's distracting from my support and resistance lines. Bitcoin has ventured into the target zone I posted in my last analysis ($10-12K). This area has a LOT of resistance, but there's a decent amount of liquidity slightly above here. The 10.8K-11.5K area is a good confluence of resistances, including the broken long term uptrend on Bitstamp AND the long term downtrend (both orange). It would be almost too perfect for Bitcoin to top out there. I think if it manages to break and hold that area, much higher prices are possible.
Reasons this could be at least the medium term top:
I'm seeing some uncertainty for larger cap altcoins, as they continue to stagnate a bit as BTC rises. If they continue to do so, and if dominance doesn't fall soon, I don't think that's particularly good for the cryptocurrency market as a whole. But, there's a pretty strong argument to be made that Bitcoin will simply leave alts behind in the future, since the demand right now is for hard money and an alternative to cash, NOT something fast and cheap to send. It's about protecting wealth, not about improving transaction speed or global liquidity. Sure, altcoins can solve problems that Bitcoin can't, but I do see the maximalist argument.
I do think that if alts like ETH can't break out further here, we can see a correction in Bitcoin towards the low 8K level. That would be pretty reasonable for a pullback. The weekly oscillators still show some room for upside. Additionally, the TOTAL crypto market cap can top out here, as it's already contending with the resistance since the All-Time-High:
It also looks like Bitcoin itself is right at the long term downtrend resistance, on the BLX chart. While I can see something like the yellow scenario occurring, I can just as easily see a drop back towards the $5.8-6.5K zone.
Here's also why I'm a little concerned about Bitcoin dominance. It's now above the long term downtrend. If it doesn't pull back considerably soon, I'll be more concerned about the long term survivability of altcoins. I think altcoins doing well against Bitcoin (even if dominance only declines back to 50% or so) is a sign of a healthy market, as it shows more interest in the sector as an area where improvements can be made. Competition is good. If Bitcoin just wins out, it also preserves the wealth of those who already have it, rather than providing access to some wealth and returns for belief in progress and innovation. While I can see Bitcoin winning out, it's not the future I personally want, especially considering Bitcoin becomes more centralized over time, as more nodes shut off with each halving.
Interestingly, alts have already been out of the bear market downtrend for quite some time! Right now, it could be making an attempt at a secondary downtrend (both orange)
In summary:
Upside targets:
10.8K (if recent high and 10.5K are breached)
11.2K (if 10.8k is breached)
11.5K (also if 10.8 is breached)
Higher targets:
12.1K
13.8K
16-17k
Next major top between 40-100K, according to the BLX chart:
Downside targets:
9.1K (healthy pullback)
8K - 8.5K (lower limit for healthy pullback)
6.4K
5.8K
***It's important to watch Bitcoin dominance now.
That's it from me! This is not financial advice. Just my opinion, and it should be used for education, speculation, and entertainment only.
-Victor Cobra
Here's where I called the bottom in early 2019:
Here's a pretty decent projection I made in February, 2019:
Also nailed this one:
Here's where I called the top in June, 2019:
Here's where I called the bottom in late 2019. Unfortunately, I didn't initially forecast the following move, but I did suggest that a breakdown of certain levels could mean that 4.2K would be tested in the short term:
Here's where I called the the current move towards $10-12K, while prices were still below 7K:
I've made some crappy calls on altcoins, but overall I've done a greatjob of forecasting the larger, more important moves for this market. Sometimes it's fun to remind myself of this, because I have indeed put a lot of time into my analysis.
Anyway, here's an update on the current situation. I've removed MA's on this analysis because I think it's distracting from my support and resistance lines. Bitcoin has ventured into the target zone I posted in my last analysis ($10-12K). This area has a LOT of resistance, but there's a decent amount of liquidity slightly above here. The 10.8K-11.5K area is a good confluence of resistances, including the broken long term uptrend on Bitstamp AND the long term downtrend (both orange). It would be almost too perfect for Bitcoin to top out there. I think if it manages to break and hold that area, much higher prices are possible.
Reasons this could be at least the medium term top:
I'm seeing some uncertainty for larger cap altcoins, as they continue to stagnate a bit as BTC rises. If they continue to do so, and if dominance doesn't fall soon, I don't think that's particularly good for the cryptocurrency market as a whole. But, there's a pretty strong argument to be made that Bitcoin will simply leave alts behind in the future, since the demand right now is for hard money and an alternative to cash, NOT something fast and cheap to send. It's about protecting wealth, not about improving transaction speed or global liquidity. Sure, altcoins can solve problems that Bitcoin can't, but I do see the maximalist argument.
I do think that if alts like ETH can't break out further here, we can see a correction in Bitcoin towards the low 8K level. That would be pretty reasonable for a pullback. The weekly oscillators still show some room for upside. Additionally, the TOTAL crypto market cap can top out here, as it's already contending with the resistance since the All-Time-High:
It also looks like Bitcoin itself is right at the long term downtrend resistance, on the BLX chart. While I can see something like the yellow scenario occurring, I can just as easily see a drop back towards the $5.8-6.5K zone.
Here's also why I'm a little concerned about Bitcoin dominance. It's now above the long term downtrend. If it doesn't pull back considerably soon, I'll be more concerned about the long term survivability of altcoins. I think altcoins doing well against Bitcoin (even if dominance only declines back to 50% or so) is a sign of a healthy market, as it shows more interest in the sector as an area where improvements can be made. Competition is good. If Bitcoin just wins out, it also preserves the wealth of those who already have it, rather than providing access to some wealth and returns for belief in progress and innovation. While I can see Bitcoin winning out, it's not the future I personally want, especially considering Bitcoin becomes more centralized over time, as more nodes shut off with each halving.
Interestingly, alts have already been out of the bear market downtrend for quite some time! Right now, it could be making an attempt at a secondary downtrend (both orange)
In summary:
Upside targets:
10.8K (if recent high and 10.5K are breached)
11.2K (if 10.8k is breached)
11.5K (also if 10.8 is breached)
Higher targets:
12.1K
13.8K
16-17k
Next major top between 40-100K, according to the BLX chart:
Downside targets:
9.1K (healthy pullback)
8K - 8.5K (lower limit for healthy pullback)
6.4K
5.8K
***It's important to watch Bitcoin dominance now.
That's it from me! This is not financial advice. Just my opinion, and it should be used for education, speculation, and entertainment only.
-Victor Cobra
ملاحظة
Here's why I think we can see low-mid 8K prices in the near future. Would be a backtest of the rising resistance broken on April 29th. ملاحظة
Target hit perfectly for this correction. If it goes lower though, the medium term top is most likely in, and we can see plenty of downside to come. Ideally, I'd like to see buyers show up before today's weekly close. If not, there will be amore of a challenge for buyers. I think a lot of confidence will be lost. Confidence has already been lost with alts, as they are no longer in their own uptrend. ملاحظة
The next target would be the 6400-6900 area. The stoch hasn't even hit bottom yet, so we may also need some sideways before recovering, even if Bitcoin won't head lower. But I have a feeling Bitcoin's uptrend will also be broken soon.ملاحظة
Honestly a little hard to say what will happen next. Bitcoin made another run at 10K and was rejected on somewhat lower volume. I had a feeling the mid-low 8K level would be tested, which happened. From here, there are a lot of options. We can move down to briefly test 7.7K or even the 6K zone in another small liquidity event to shake out the people who jumped on the halving pump too late. Bitcoin loves to do this. OR, if these trendlines I've drawn can be held as support, we can eventually start to creep up towards making a new yearly high, above 10.5K. It's somewhat promising that dominance is declining during this consolidation period. It means money isn't necessarily leaving the market, but just moving around within it. If altcoins continued to look extremely weak here, I think that would be a bad sign. ملاحظة
Dominance has confirmed the broken long term uptrend as resistance (pink) and has also been rejected again at the downtrend since last summer (light blue). It's very possible alts resume outperforming from here. Need to observe those trendlines. ملاحظة
Dominance zoomed out: If it breaks back above the broken uptrend, it can head to the top resistance, a bit above 80%. If it continues to get rejected, I can honestly see it heading straight down to the high 40% level.
ملاحظة
Again, for Bitcoin on the weekly, I think it can avoid a liquidity test below 8K if it holds 9.1K on the weekly. That's a major control level for the market. Holding support above there could indicate that we're finally ready for a new high. The next upside target would be the long term downtrend (light blue). ملاحظة
Looks like I did it again. I called the pullback to the 8K zone and then ultimately the push higher after support was built around 9.1K for many weeks.
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