BTC/USD, Bears are almost done
Ok, long time since last post, it has been a very bloody 2018, but seems like the sun starts to shine. Lets see what we have.
As you can see in the analysis I made early in January 2017 (you will find it below attached), I was early anticipating that the correction at that moment may will be longer than expected and that may be we could be in a real Bear Market further than a simple correction, it seems that the analysis was extremely accurate as it has played out almost exactly with what I was seeing at that moment (in terms of prices and times/duration).
This new analysis is based on that previous one, but now, we have more data to figure out were we might be going from here, I will try to do the analysis as simple as possible.
- First, we have, that in the BIG PICTURE, since Bitcoin was created, until now, we have been following a 5 Waves Elliot Pattern, and we are almost getting done with 4th one (The 5th Wave is the next bull run). Each wave is marked with the number it corresponds to. THE PURPLE ONE IS THE FORECAST.
- 2nd, I used a Fibo Extension Tool (The Yellow ones) which help us to forecast how far a next bull run can go, considering the strength of the previous bull cycle and the later correction. If we applied the Fibo Extension to the 2011 - 2013 bull run, we will find that it was saying us, the next bull run might reach levels of $4,800 (The first horizontal blue line), and in fact it went further than that, reaching levels of 20K (ATH).
If we use the same Fibo Extension, but applied to the last bull run (the ATH one), it show us that at least, it may reach 100K (If we consider that the previous Fibo Extension exceeded what the analysis said), we can excpect it to go higher than 100K.
3rd and last, If we ee at the white circles, we can see that last week the RSI indicator touches it lowest level since 5 JAN 2015, last time the RSI touched that level in 5 JAN 2015, was the moment when the Bear Market ends and the new bull run starts, so it is a good indicator that the current Bear Market is exhausted and almost done.
There are also other indicators like a inverted H&S, a bullish divergence and a strong bounce from a support at 3k in the daily chart that I will be posting later and that it compliments the idea that the blood bath is about to end.
As you can see in the analysis I made early in January 2017 (you will find it below attached), I was early anticipating that the correction at that moment may will be longer than expected and that may be we could be in a real Bear Market further than a simple correction, it seems that the analysis was extremely accurate as it has played out almost exactly with what I was seeing at that moment (in terms of prices and times/duration).
This new analysis is based on that previous one, but now, we have more data to figure out were we might be going from here, I will try to do the analysis as simple as possible.
- First, we have, that in the BIG PICTURE, since Bitcoin was created, until now, we have been following a 5 Waves Elliot Pattern, and we are almost getting done with 4th one (The 5th Wave is the next bull run). Each wave is marked with the number it corresponds to. THE PURPLE ONE IS THE FORECAST.
- 2nd, I used a Fibo Extension Tool (The Yellow ones) which help us to forecast how far a next bull run can go, considering the strength of the previous bull cycle and the later correction. If we applied the Fibo Extension to the 2011 - 2013 bull run, we will find that it was saying us, the next bull run might reach levels of $4,800 (The first horizontal blue line), and in fact it went further than that, reaching levels of 20K (ATH).
If we use the same Fibo Extension, but applied to the last bull run (the ATH one), it show us that at least, it may reach 100K (If we consider that the previous Fibo Extension exceeded what the analysis said), we can excpect it to go higher than 100K.
3rd and last, If we ee at the white circles, we can see that last week the RSI indicator touches it lowest level since 5 JAN 2015, last time the RSI touched that level in 5 JAN 2015, was the moment when the Bear Market ends and the new bull run starts, so it is a good indicator that the current Bear Market is exhausted and almost done.
There are also other indicators like a inverted H&S, a bullish divergence and a strong bounce from a support at 3k in the daily chart that I will be posting later and that it compliments the idea that the blood bath is about to end.
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