I believe we will retrace to the 0.618 retracement zone/ the prior low. I doubt we will go lower, as they say, be bullish when all others are bearish. The argument for 20k doesn't take into account the increase in the money supply, and when that is accounted for it meets pretty on par with the lowest support line in my chart. Also, we are seeing weakness due to a breakout in DXY, this can not be sustained as the US will publish recession confirmation data into Q2 with negative GDP numbers. The Fed Reserve will be forced to go dovish into the Nov 2022 election cycle. I think we will continue to bleed toward a bottom between 33-26k with one final capitulation until that happens. Once that occurs I believe we will begin the next cycle with a slow grind upward for the rest of the year into 2023.
تعليق:
I also forgot to mention if we bounce within the range I specified, we will create a double bottom pattern. It will be difficult to go lower, as RSIs will be oversold by that point which should also help shift momentum.