🔥 Bitcoin: This Might Be The Bear Market Low

١٣ يونيو ٢٠٢٢

In today's analysis I want to look at two indicators which are potentially indicating that we're currently trading at the bear-market low: the weekly RSI and the 200-week SMA.

At the moment, the weekly RSI of Bitcoin is below a value of 30, which is considered to be oversold.

This has happened only TWO times before. The first time was in the 2015 bear market, where the weekly RSI<30 signaled the lowest weekly closing candle of the bear market.
The second time was during the 2018 bear market and signaled the end of a year of suffering.

And the third time is today. The weekly candle has not closed yet, but if we assume that we're going to close the week below 25K we can assume that we're going to get a weekly RSI < 30.

The 200-week SMA has classically functioned to signal the bear-market low. This was the case for the previous two bears markets, at least. And yet again, we're trading right on top of it.

First of all, the week has not closed so the values might still change a bit. Second, even if this we're the bear market low, we can still make a wick below the 200-week SMA towards 19k for example. Third, stocks are nowhere near bottoming it seems. As long as stocks are going down, so will BTC.