BTCUSD - Predicting with Volume Profile FR, Speed Fan, and FA

١٩ فبراير ٢٠١٨

Predictions for short term (1-7days): 9000-11500
Drop:$9700 - $9800 - $10050 - $10300 - $10500
High volatility possible in lower 9k region if we go there, 8k lowest if something crazy happens, ex. extreme bullrun
Based on Vol Profile and retracements.

Up:
$10900 - $11500
Barring a huge dump, I believe we will continue to consolidate in the $10,000s region. Then riding along the price trend line around mid $11,500s.
Short term, >$12,000 is hard as we would need to cross up a speed fan line.

Parameters:

• Volume Profile, Fixed Range (VPFR)
  
• Speed resistance fan goes from trough to current peak
  
• Dashed trend lines are the price trend lines that I have found BTC to be riding. Zooming into the 1 hour chart shows a story.
  

Why I chose 18 Jan. to start VPFR and retracement: I wanted to have a month's worth of data only to go off of. It makes it easier to find identify price trends on a smaller scale.
Why I chose VPFR over VPVR: It allows me analyze a chosen section and keeps the same values even if I change scale.

Speed Resistance Fan
The lines act as supports/resistances. Drawn from trough to peak, it uses the Fibonacci ratio and is best with the Fib retracement. You can see BTC bounce in between the 1 fan and the .786 fan lines. If it falls through, the next fan is support. I don't believe we'll cross the 1 line soon.

Volume Profile (Fixed Range)
VPFR shows traders where the most trading took place, price range wise. It's a flipped axis volume.

VPFR shows the largest trading volume took place in the $8,000-8,800 range, as well as the $9.800-$10,550 range, for a month. In our case, we can see that the reason for this is because of consolidation and reaching our old price ranges again. And by seeing where the most trading volume lies, we are able to predict that it is a point of support for us.

VPFR has 3 lines shooting out of it. These can be turned off as they only serve to provide redundant information as an overlay; it is still helpful if you need it to see Volume Profile's values over the entire chart.

• POC: Point of control. This just shows the peak trading volume's price range. If value falls through the VA region to the POC, it can be seen as a strong support.
  
• Developing POC: This line shows where the POC has been before and where it is now. It can also be used as an overlay to show the peak volume region on the candlesticks.
  
• Developing VA: Value area. This is the region that has the most trading volume. If above it, it can be seen as a support. If below, it can be a stiff resistance.
  

Fundamental/News Analysis:
Bitcoin usually drops on Monday. In conjunction with rejections at 11k may be cause for concern.

SEC Suspends Trading In 3 Companies Due To ‘Questions’ Around Cryptocurrency Ties: further legitimization of crypto as a currency by regulating it. Note, all three companies are owned by the same individual.
source: cointelegraph.com/news/sec-suspends-trading-in-3-companies-due-to-questions-around-cryptocurrency-ties

Most family members have met together already for Lunar New Year's. This means that any money to be taken from crypto has been taken; we might get some new money in a few days when they clear their red envelope deposits.

Futures from established firms: Although the futures are a fraction of total market cap for Bitcoin, we must keep in mind that our markets are segregated due to KYC/citizenship laws. There is also the psychological factor that may cause it to lower.

Psychological barrier at $11,000: for every $1,000 we hit, there are shorters filling orders. How much they can short depends on how profitable it would be for whales to drive the price up.

No clear support: we rose quickly with little time for correction. VPFR is showing that we have had a high amount of trading in the lightly highlighted zones. The right axis shows the price points of those areas. I believe those will be points to watch.

١٩ فبراير ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

(ran out of space)

RSI is at near overbought levels, but BTC historically only has dumps when RSI hits >80. I'm expecting a small exhale from RSI of 70 for BTC to drop a few hundred dollars.