BTC Bitcoin Correction Outlook 4 hour Chart Extended Analysis

٣٠ أغسطس

BTC Bitcoin Correction Outlook 4 hour Chart Extended Analysis

In this 4-hour short-term chart, we observe both a triangle and a bearish rising wedge that have been broken, signalling potential downward momentum. Additionally, we now see the formation of a bear flag, which is typically a continuation pattern. We can also see several support lines that highlight important levels to keep an eye on.

The identified targets include:

Bear Flag Target: 54,541
Bearish Wedge Target: 50,000
Maximum Correction Target (Triangle): 45,000

These targets closely align with the Elliott Wave C wave projections:

0.618 Fibonacci Extension: 56,764
1.000 Fibonacci Extension: 54,023
1.618 Fibonacci Extension: 49,589

My current outlook suggests the possibility of establishing a double bottom around 50,000, although it's too early to confirm this scenario.

On the weekly chart, the inverted Head & Shoulders formation, Cup & Handle pattern, and the Descending Broadening Wedge, along with the bull flag, remain fully intact. These patterns support long-term targets for Bitcoin ranging between 150,000 and 325,000 in 2025.

Happy trading and good luck!

Disclaimer: This is my personal analysis and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.

٣ سبتمبر

ملاحظة

We’re seeing a Bearish Rising Wedge forming, and if it breaks, the next support levels will come into play.

This wedge could eventually turn into an inverted head and shoulders pattern. Keep in mind that when patterns fail, they often result in a strong counter move. So, the Bearish Rising Wedge is only considered valid if the lower boundary is broken.

This bearish rising wedge is a continuation pattern.

٣ سبتمبر

ملاحظة

Also, observe that the volume is increasing as the price rises, which is typically a bullish sign. It's best to wait for clarity on which direction the price will take within the wedge.
Ideally, in a wedge, volume should decrease, so this is a contradictory signal which could lead to an inverted head and shoulders pattern.
We will see it soon!

٤ سبتمبر

ملاحظة

The Bearish Rising Wedge has hit its target as predicted and even dropped a bit further to trigger some stops.

Meanwhile, a head and shoulders pattern has formed, and the neckline has been broken.

The pattern is now confirmed, and I expect a re-test of the neckline, after which we’ll likely see more ups and downs heading towards $54,500.

At that level, we’ll need to watch if the support at $54,500 holds. If it doesn’t, we’re likely heading to the head and shoulders target and the larger blue bearish rising wedge target at $50,000. From there, a potential double bottom could form, giving BTC a chance to bounce back up.

One more thing to keep in mind: if the head and shoulders pattern fails, it could result in an aggressive price spike to the upside. Just something to remember—every pattern can fail!

٥ سبتمبر

ملاحظة

We’ve successfully hit all our targets so far, and currently, the price of Bitcoin has dropped to $56,601. The next key target we’re eyeing is $54,400. Once we reach that level, we’ll reassess the situation and decide on the next move from there

٦ سبتمبر

ملاحظة

Bitcoin has now dropped below the $54,541 support level and is sitting at $53,733. We might see a pullback, but the $50,000 target is looking more likely since it's the target for both the blue rising wedge and the confirmed head-and-shoulders pattern.

There are also some positive divergences showing up in different oscillators, which could signal a pullback. As I mentioned before, I expect the $50,000 support to hold. In a worst-case scenario, we could see a quick spike down to $45,000, but that would probably only happen intraday.

٩ سبتمبر

ملاحظة

Bitcoin is making a pullback, just like I wrote when it was at $53,733. The price is now $55,651. We're seeing another bear flag forming. If it breaks and confirms below the lower boundary, the target is $50,344, which lines up with the head-and-shoulders target and the bigger bear flag around $50,000.

Should Bitcoin breaks above the upper boundary, we’re keeping an eye on the green neckline of the head-and-shoulders pattern at $56,700. This is a resistance level and could also serve as a second confirmation of the head-and-shoulders pattern.

١٠ سبتمبر

ملاحظة

Friends, As I mentioned last time, we could expect a bounce from Bitcoin, and that's exactly what happened.

If we dig deeper into the analysis, we now have an inverted head and shoulders pattern that's completed but not yet confirmed. The increasing volume on the right shoulder suggests there’s a good chance of a breakout. A move above $58,000 would confirm it, and after that, we might pull back to test the neckline.

The target is the resistance from the earlier chart at $64,610.

That said, while there's a good chance of a breakout, if it doesn't happen, we could fall back into the bearish rising wedge. Head and shoulders patterns often form alongside wedges, and this is a perfect example. If we break down from the upper boundary of the bearish rising wedge, we need to wait if the price breaks the lower boundary of the wedge. If that happens, we could retest the previous low around $52,600

١٢ سبتمبر

ملاحظة

Two Inverted Head-and-Shoulders Formations


I zoomed in on the last part of the Bitcoin chart for more detail.

The inverted head-and-shoulders pattern in blue is primed for a breakout. The blue Inverted. H&S pattern has a target of $64,473, while the green Inverted H&S is still developing, with the right shoulder almost complete. That one has a target of $61,486 once completed.

I’m expecting a breakout of both, but until that happens, there’s always the risk that the price could fall back into the orange bearish rising wedge (see the chart in the timeline).

Failed head-and-shoulders patterns can reverse direction very quickly. When that happens, it tends to trigger aggressive moves, and you can definitely take advantage of that.

We’re now waiting for confirmation either from a valid breakout to the upside or, in the case of a failed pattern, to the downside.

١٣ سبتمبر

ملاحظة

Bitcoin has broken out of the inverse head and shoulders pattern, just as I expected. This breakout now confirms the formation.

What’s next? We’ll likely see a pullback to test the neckline. The breakout occurred with higher than normal volume, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.

Take a moment to review my history, and you’ll see how everything has unfolded. Closely tracking price action and staying flexible can lead to great results. However, it’s crucial to remain unbiased and avoid being influenced by long- or short-biased traders.

In my opinion, Bitcoin is primed to continue breaking out to the upside, as shown on the long-term chart in my analysis.

١٨ سبتمبر

ملاحظة

Follow-up since the last update – Target achieved

I mentioned that we could expect a breakout followed by a pullback to the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern. That’s exactly what happened.

The target for the blue inverted head and shoulders pattern remains intact.