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تم فتح الصفقة:
I made a mistake in calculating the top price per cycle. I should've used the diminished marginality concept but didn't. Instead, I used fixed x16 for the target. It should've been x36->x18->x9->x4.5-> and so on.
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Hence, the calculation should've been as follows :
1.The 1st top before 1st halving was $32.
2.The top after 1st halving cycle(2013) was $1163. (1163/32 = x36 ratio)
3.The top after 2nd halving cycle(2017) was $19892 (19892/1163 = x17-18 ratio)
4.The top after 3rd halving cycle(2021) is not yet known. However, if we apply the same logic, it will be approximately 180K(= 19892*9)
5. The top after 4th halving cycle(2025) will be 810K(= 180k*4.5)
6. The top after 5th halving cycle(2029) will be 1820K(=810k*2.25)
7. The top after 6th halving cycle(2032) will be 2045K (THIS IS THE TOP)
.
Hence, the calculation should've been as follows :
1.The 1st top before 1st halving was $32.
2.The top after 1st halving cycle(2013) was $1163. (1163/32 = x36 ratio)
3.The top after 2nd halving cycle(2017) was $19892 (19892/1163 = x17-18 ratio)
4.The top after 3rd halving cycle(2021) is not yet known. However, if we apply the same logic, it will be approximately 180K(= 19892*9)
5. The top after 4th halving cycle(2025) will be 810K(= 180k*4.5)
6. The top after 5th halving cycle(2029) will be 1820K(=810k*2.25)
7. The top after 6th halving cycle(2032) will be 2045K (THIS IS THE TOP)