BITCOIN nightmare fractal to $23000 and below. Realistic or not?

Few words on Bitcoin's latest fall as the new week seems continues with the same kind of mass selling as the previous. As the stock market is tumbling too, I run into an S&P500 fractal that might be applicable to BTC's price action since the April High.

This S&P fractal take us back to the January 2018 High. That was the time when the U.S. and China started a trade war with tariffs and bands imposed by both sides. As the S&P chart on the right side (both on the 1W time-frame) shows, the index entered a 2 year Megaphone pattern. On its first sell-off it was initially supported by the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), then the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) and finally the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which broke though during the March 2020 COVID flash crash.

Bitcoin (left side) has been trading inside a similar pattern since the April 2021 High. The 1W MA50 supported in June - July 2021 and currently the price is approaching the 1W MA100. A break there could set in motion another flush crash towards the 1W MA200 similar to S&P500's December 2018 crash. If that holds, it would largely confirm those long-term Megaphone bias.

Do you think this comparison is realistic and a Lower Low leg is expected near $23000 or even below? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!



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