Potential Next Bitcoin Megabull Cycle towards $200,000

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Here is our roadmap towards the Bitcoin Megabull of 2021 based on our Weekly Log Chart.

As long as our log bull parallel channel holds along the 1W midband now at $10,200 (or 21WMA for others) I expect Bitcoin to keep grinding higher and higher in the incoming months due to the limited supply following the Halving. Bitcoin's supply experienced recently a supply shock from 12BTC mined per block to only 6.5BTC, making Bitcoin scarcer than ever.

Many metrics also shows that institutions have sent most of their Bitcoin holds off the exchanges for storage which is a bullish sign that they do not expect the market to experience anymore a strong downside but quite the opposite a stronger uptrend to develop past the previous ATH at $19,892.

Finally, the Bollinger Bands simultaneously on the 1W and 1M timeframes are squeezing tight indicating a big move incoming after December 2020 past the ATH at $19,892. Historically the only time this happened simultaneously on the 1W and 1M timeframes was back in April 2016 after which the bull market took us to the ATH then a Megabull.

The anticipated Megabull targets are:
$130,000-150,000
$200,000-220,000 (Higher probability)

Note, this idea assumes no "big" stock market or great depression type of event in 2020-2021. Should any of these occur then consider this idea VOID as they would delay the Megabull by at least 3-6 months.

Good luck and happy trading!

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تعليق:

What does this mean short-term for Bitcoin?
Well we'd want to see a move up in this broadening wedge to $11,800-12,000 in the next 3 days preferably. Expectation on stocks this week is that they remain in sideways and move up higher Friday or next week.

تعليق:

Watching closely the stock market in the US and EU as a second wave of COVID-19 tanking the EU markets overnight and knocking us out of the short-term broadening wedge on Bitcoin hitting our short-term stoploss.

Watching the DOW open at the moment through the daily close today to see if we confirm a sell off to 24,000 which would take Bitcoin below the 1W midband at $10,200. Remember, a Weekly close below $10,200 on BTC would switch the mid-term/long-term to a bear trend which would delay the Bitcoin Megabull by another 3-6 months depending on how turbulent the months ahead are.

DOW

تعليق:

At the moment the Weekly outlook remains bullish unless we lose the 1W or 21WEMA at $10,200 which was tested today in the swift of the crypto and stock market sell off.

The DOW Jones has broken down to 26,700, though a strong recovery occurred to 27,100 before the Daily close. The bears will need to drive it down to 26,500 (to drive Bitcoin lower than $10,200) in the incoming days or else the bulls can regain control of the trend.

تعليق:

The 1W Midband is being tested at this moment. If we close this Weekly below it then we flip bear for 3 months.

تعليق:

The 1W midband has held quite strongly since late september. Expectation is that we continue to $13,400-13,500 as long as a higher high past $12,500 is made before mid-November 2020.

تعليق:

The corn gave us no retracement. Just up as supply is shocked (PayPal Bitcoin rollout probably contributed to this) as institutions and smart money grab all the BTC they can before the ATH is broken and the Megabull is triggered. Books are extremely thin on all exchanges from this point forward.

From $16,000-17,000 there is a possibility that we start seeing the very LAST pull back of maximum 30% before the Megabull kicks in after the harvesting tax season Month of December. The below are the potential retrace buy/long targets:
$12,800-12,200
$11,500-11,200