Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Short Squeeze or Breakdown?
Which Timeframe Seems Most Relevant?
• Indicator readings: The 4H and 8H remain the most interesting timeframes for spotting potential rebound opportunities. The ISPD Div Pro is low in satisfaction on 4H, signaling a potential reversal, while the HPI is high, which can indicate a temporarily oversold zone favorable for a technical rebound.
• Daily remains neutral-bullish, but slightly “overconfident” (ISPD ~0.80), which may indicate a saturation risk in the medium term. For swing positioning, refining entries via lower timeframes (4H/8H) is recommended to find an optimal entry and monitor the 100–102k$ resistance.
• Intraday: 2H provides a better buy-the-dip timing, allowing for more precise entries in anticipation of a technical rebound.
New insights from the Liquidation Map:
• The 98,500 – 102,000 $ zone is a massive liquidation area, which may cause increased volatility.
• If BTC breaks above 98,500 $ - 99,500 $, a short squeeze could trigger, pushing the price toward 102,000 $ or higher.
• Conversely, breaking below 95,000 $ would activate many long liquidations, increasing the risk of a drop toward 92,000 $.
Key Support and Resistance Levels for BTC/USDT
By combining technical analysis with liquidation data, here are the critical areas to watch:
Support Levels:
• 96,000 $ (near Auto AVWAP Low 4H, a short-term pivot).
• 94–95,000 $ (corresponds to the last local low and an area of liquidity concentration seen on the OI LIQMAP).
• 91–92,000 $ (a strong support zone that could be tested in case of increased selling pressure).
Resistance Levels:
• 98,700–99,000 $ (confluence of 50D/100D moving averages, Tenkan, and a strong accumulation of sell orders).
• 100,000–102,000 $ (a major liquidation zone where stop hunts are likely).
• 104,000 $ (an important level matching the AVWAP High Daily).
Bitcoin ETF Flows and Market Impact
Analysis of Bitcoin ETF flows shows a mixed trend:
• Massive outflows from Grayscale (GBTC):
• Frequent and significant net outflows, such as January 27 (-457.6M$), February 3 (-234.4M$), and February 6 (-140.2M$). This suggests continuous institutional selling pressure.
• Positive inflows into other ETFs (BlackRock, Fidelity, etc.):
• Some days saw strong positive inflows, such as January 31 (+368M$) and February 4 (+561M$), but these have not been enough to fully offset GBTC outflows.
• Latest data from February 10: Net inflows of +186.3M$, which could provide temporary support for BTC.
Implications:
• If ETF inflows continue to be positive, they could stabilize BTC and support a move toward 100–102k$.
• If GBTC outflows remain strong, selling pressure would persist, making a breakdown below 95k$ more likely.
Conclusion and Actionable Strategy
1. Market Context
• The market remains in a corrective A-B-C phase.
• A rebound toward 100–102k$ seems likely, but this move could still be a wave B before another drop.
• If ETF inflows remain stable, BTC could find support. However, if GBTC outflows persist, bearish pressure will remain strong.
2. Indicator and Liquidation Map Insights
• On the 4H, Investor Satisfaction is very low (~0.22), and Mason’s Satisfaction is above its SMA, signaling an imminent bullish impulse.
• On the Daily, ISPD is high (> 0.80), suggesting a medium-term topping risk if BTC reaches 100–102k$.
• HPI is more “overbought” on 4H (89) than on 1D (34), which favors a short-term rebound but with resistance risks ahead.
3. Suggested Strategy
• Buy pullbacks if BTC drops to 95–96k$ (or 92k$ if there is a selling excess).
• Target: Rebound toward 100–102k$, with partial profit-taking in this zone.
• If BTC closes above 102k$ (4H or Daily), a move toward 104k$ or higher is possible.
• If BTC falls below 91–92k$, a deeper bearish scenario (running flat) would be confirmed, leading to potential lower buy zones or short-term short trades.
Final Conclusion
Liquidation and ETF data confirm the previous analysis:
• The 98,500–102,000 $ zone is critical, where a short squeeze could push BTC higher.
• A rejection in this zone would increase the likelihood of a return to 92,000 $.
• ETF flows are a key factor: If inflows stabilize, BTC could hold up. However, renewed GBTC outflows would keep BTC under pressure.
Key Factors to Watch:
1. Upcoming economic data (US inflation, Powell’s speech) could trigger volatility.
2. Liquidation dynamics: A breakout above 98,500 $ could accelerate gains, while a drop below 95k$ would increase downside risk.
3. ETF flows: As long as inflows exceed GBTC outflows, BTC could remain stable. If outflows surge again, bearish momentum will strengthen.
Final Thoughts
• BTC is in a technical rebound phase (wave B or C) with 100–102k$ as a critical pivot.
• Failure to break this zone could lead to a drop back toward 92k$.
• The broader bullish trend remains intact, but this does not yet confirm the start of a full bull run.
• Indicator readings: The 4H and 8H remain the most interesting timeframes for spotting potential rebound opportunities. The ISPD Div Pro is low in satisfaction on 4H, signaling a potential reversal, while the HPI is high, which can indicate a temporarily oversold zone favorable for a technical rebound.
• Daily remains neutral-bullish, but slightly “overconfident” (ISPD ~0.80), which may indicate a saturation risk in the medium term. For swing positioning, refining entries via lower timeframes (4H/8H) is recommended to find an optimal entry and monitor the 100–102k$ resistance.
• Intraday: 2H provides a better buy-the-dip timing, allowing for more precise entries in anticipation of a technical rebound.
New insights from the Liquidation Map:
• The 98,500 – 102,000 $ zone is a massive liquidation area, which may cause increased volatility.
• If BTC breaks above 98,500 $ - 99,500 $, a short squeeze could trigger, pushing the price toward 102,000 $ or higher.
• Conversely, breaking below 95,000 $ would activate many long liquidations, increasing the risk of a drop toward 92,000 $.
Key Support and Resistance Levels for BTC/USDT
By combining technical analysis with liquidation data, here are the critical areas to watch:
Support Levels:
• 96,000 $ (near Auto AVWAP Low 4H, a short-term pivot).
• 94–95,000 $ (corresponds to the last local low and an area of liquidity concentration seen on the OI LIQMAP).
• 91–92,000 $ (a strong support zone that could be tested in case of increased selling pressure).
Resistance Levels:
• 98,700–99,000 $ (confluence of 50D/100D moving averages, Tenkan, and a strong accumulation of sell orders).
• 100,000–102,000 $ (a major liquidation zone where stop hunts are likely).
• 104,000 $ (an important level matching the AVWAP High Daily).
Bitcoin ETF Flows and Market Impact
Analysis of Bitcoin ETF flows shows a mixed trend:
• Massive outflows from Grayscale (GBTC):
• Frequent and significant net outflows, such as January 27 (-457.6M$), February 3 (-234.4M$), and February 6 (-140.2M$). This suggests continuous institutional selling pressure.
• Positive inflows into other ETFs (BlackRock, Fidelity, etc.):
• Some days saw strong positive inflows, such as January 31 (+368M$) and February 4 (+561M$), but these have not been enough to fully offset GBTC outflows.
• Latest data from February 10: Net inflows of +186.3M$, which could provide temporary support for BTC.
Implications:
• If ETF inflows continue to be positive, they could stabilize BTC and support a move toward 100–102k$.
• If GBTC outflows remain strong, selling pressure would persist, making a breakdown below 95k$ more likely.
Conclusion and Actionable Strategy
1. Market Context
• The market remains in a corrective A-B-C phase.
• A rebound toward 100–102k$ seems likely, but this move could still be a wave B before another drop.
• If ETF inflows remain stable, BTC could find support. However, if GBTC outflows persist, bearish pressure will remain strong.
2. Indicator and Liquidation Map Insights
• On the 4H, Investor Satisfaction is very low (~0.22), and Mason’s Satisfaction is above its SMA, signaling an imminent bullish impulse.
• On the Daily, ISPD is high (> 0.80), suggesting a medium-term topping risk if BTC reaches 100–102k$.
• HPI is more “overbought” on 4H (89) than on 1D (34), which favors a short-term rebound but with resistance risks ahead.
3. Suggested Strategy
• Buy pullbacks if BTC drops to 95–96k$ (or 92k$ if there is a selling excess).
• Target: Rebound toward 100–102k$, with partial profit-taking in this zone.
• If BTC closes above 102k$ (4H or Daily), a move toward 104k$ or higher is possible.
• If BTC falls below 91–92k$, a deeper bearish scenario (running flat) would be confirmed, leading to potential lower buy zones or short-term short trades.
Final Conclusion
Liquidation and ETF data confirm the previous analysis:
• The 98,500–102,000 $ zone is critical, where a short squeeze could push BTC higher.
• A rejection in this zone would increase the likelihood of a return to 92,000 $.
• ETF flows are a key factor: If inflows stabilize, BTC could hold up. However, renewed GBTC outflows would keep BTC under pressure.
Key Factors to Watch:
1. Upcoming economic data (US inflation, Powell’s speech) could trigger volatility.
2. Liquidation dynamics: A breakout above 98,500 $ could accelerate gains, while a drop below 95k$ would increase downside risk.
3. ETF flows: As long as inflows exceed GBTC outflows, BTC could remain stable. If outflows surge again, bearish momentum will strengthen.
Final Thoughts
• BTC is in a technical rebound phase (wave B or C) with 100–102k$ as a critical pivot.
• Failure to break this zone could lead to a drop back toward 92k$.
• The broader bullish trend remains intact, but this does not yet confirm the start of a full bull run.
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إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.