Will Bitcoin Break the 31K level Today (06/23)
TLDR:
• ATM, there is no clear indication that I can see if Bitcoin will push higher above the 31K level or pullback.
• The best approach IMO is to wait or, hedge against your primary position.
• On the 1H timeframe bitcoin is forming a Triangle pattern. Triangles are not reliable. If you do want to trade the triangle, watch out for a false move before the “real” move. MMs know that we like to draw lines on charts.
Arguments for a continuation:
1. Bitcoin’s daily RSI level is 69.55. if we consider the daily level as the primary, Bitcoin has some room for further price appreciation. Furthermore the 1H RSI is down to 55.59 and if this consolidation will persist a little longer RSI will go down on the medium timeframes as well.
2. There is liquidity (SLs) above the 31K level. It seems odd to me that price pushed only to 30.8K and did not sweep these SLs.
3. I always ask myself: “what will cause max pain to market participants?”. I think that many traders are sidelined. Others took short positions, believing that this impulse is at an end. What better than first punishing the shorts and punishing the late longs afterwards?
Arguments against continuation:
1. Yesterday’s pullback was not deep enough for a meaningful continuation. If we compare this impulse to the March impulse. The pullback of the march impulse retraced between the 0.236 to the 0.382 level. Yesterday’s pull back did not even reach the 0.236 (see linked TV ideas).
2. The RSI on all timeframes is too elevated to support a sustained push above the 31K level.
3. Volume is diminishing. Most of market participants are too savvy to ape into the rally when Bitcoin is this extended. The really dumb money is not in yet. Yesterdays and today’s volume is diminishing because traders prefer to sit on the fence and wait. We need a push above 31K to get everyone onboard or a pullback.
These are the arguments. Since I don’t have anything conclusive, I will just hedge my longs and wait.
NFA.
What do you think? Please share in the comments.
Best wishes to all.
• ATM, there is no clear indication that I can see if Bitcoin will push higher above the 31K level or pullback.
• The best approach IMO is to wait or, hedge against your primary position.
• On the 1H timeframe bitcoin is forming a Triangle pattern. Triangles are not reliable. If you do want to trade the triangle, watch out for a false move before the “real” move. MMs know that we like to draw lines on charts.
- In my previous Bitcoin idea, I suggested some pullback targets. So far Bitcoin is holding the 30K and it is yet unclear if in the coming NY session Bitcoin will push above the 30K level or will it pull back to take a breather.
Arguments for a continuation:
1. Bitcoin’s daily RSI level is 69.55. if we consider the daily level as the primary, Bitcoin has some room for further price appreciation. Furthermore the 1H RSI is down to 55.59 and if this consolidation will persist a little longer RSI will go down on the medium timeframes as well.
2. There is liquidity (SLs) above the 31K level. It seems odd to me that price pushed only to 30.8K and did not sweep these SLs.
3. I always ask myself: “what will cause max pain to market participants?”. I think that many traders are sidelined. Others took short positions, believing that this impulse is at an end. What better than first punishing the shorts and punishing the late longs afterwards?
Arguments against continuation:
1. Yesterday’s pullback was not deep enough for a meaningful continuation. If we compare this impulse to the March impulse. The pullback of the march impulse retraced between the 0.236 to the 0.382 level. Yesterday’s pull back did not even reach the 0.236 (see linked TV ideas).
2. The RSI on all timeframes is too elevated to support a sustained push above the 31K level.
3. Volume is diminishing. Most of market participants are too savvy to ape into the rally when Bitcoin is this extended. The really dumb money is not in yet. Yesterdays and today’s volume is diminishing because traders prefer to sit on the fence and wait. We need a push above 31K to get everyone onboard or a pullback.
These are the arguments. Since I don’t have anything conclusive, I will just hedge my longs and wait.
NFA.
What do you think? Please share in the comments.
Best wishes to all.
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