BTC shake-out until 2024-08-08, then soar for 2025-08 peak
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Increased Speculation Strains Bitcoin Market
The recent slowdown in the Bitcoin market can be attributed to several factors, including a shift in investor behavior. Many individuals treated cryptocurrencies like checking accounts, fueling excessive speculation instead of adopting a long-term investment approach similar to certificates of deposit or traditional bonds (excluding ETF bonds). This speculative frenzy led to a depletion of disposable income, straining the financial health of the middle class. As a result, businesses are experiencing a drop in revenue due to decreased middle-class consumption.
Technical Analysis: Shakeout and Potential Price Movement
From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin (BTC) is anticipated to remain in a consolidation phase, or "shakeout," for the next 46 days, potentially ending on or before August 8th, 2024. This suggests a period of price fluctuations without a clear upward or downward trend. Following this, a price rise is expected, with initial signs appearing as early as July 2024, but a more substantial increase is likely between August 2024 and peaking in August 2025.
Long-Term BTC Cycle: Boom, Bust, and Renewal
While the prediction is for a peak in August 2025, it's crucial to consider the cyclical nature of Bitcoin. Historically, Bitcoin has followed boom-and-bust cycles. Following the 2025 peak, a significant bear cycle is anticipated, potentially leading to a crash extending until August 2028. This extended downturn could be exacerbated by potential recessions in 2025 and/or 2026, coupled with continued inflationary pressures. However, this bear cycle is likely to be followed by a new bull cycle, mirroring past Bitcoin market behavior.
Historical Performance and Potential Entry Points (Informational Only):
This section presents investment strategies that have aligned well with historical market trends, along with potential future holding entry points based on the provided data. It's crucial to understand that past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and the cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile.
Historical Data Chart:
The recent slowdown in the Bitcoin market can be attributed to several factors, including a shift in investor behavior. Many individuals treated cryptocurrencies like checking accounts, fueling excessive speculation instead of adopting a long-term investment approach similar to certificates of deposit or traditional bonds (excluding ETF bonds). This speculative frenzy led to a depletion of disposable income, straining the financial health of the middle class. As a result, businesses are experiencing a drop in revenue due to decreased middle-class consumption.
Technical Analysis: Shakeout and Potential Price Movement
From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin (BTC) is anticipated to remain in a consolidation phase, or "shakeout," for the next 46 days, potentially ending on or before August 8th, 2024. This suggests a period of price fluctuations without a clear upward or downward trend. Following this, a price rise is expected, with initial signs appearing as early as July 2024, but a more substantial increase is likely between August 2024 and peaking in August 2025.
Long-Term BTC Cycle: Boom, Bust, and Renewal
While the prediction is for a peak in August 2025, it's crucial to consider the cyclical nature of Bitcoin. Historically, Bitcoin has followed boom-and-bust cycles. Following the 2025 peak, a significant bear cycle is anticipated, potentially leading to a crash extending until August 2028. This extended downturn could be exacerbated by potential recessions in 2025 and/or 2026, coupled with continued inflationary pressures. However, this bear cycle is likely to be followed by a new bull cycle, mirroring past Bitcoin market behavior.
Historical Performance and Potential Entry Points (Informational Only):
This section presents investment strategies that have aligned well with historical market trends, along with potential future holding entry points based on the provided data. It's crucial to understand that past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and the cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile.
- November 2021: Holding USDT (Tether)
- March 2022: Holding PAXG (Gold)
- December 2022: Holding BTC (Bitcoin)
- August 2025 (roughly +/- 4 months): Holding USDT (Tether)
- January 2026 (roughly +/- 3 months): Holding PAXG (Gold)
Historical Data Chart:
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NOTE: The vertical white lines on this 1W chart above this comment represents the halving points for BTC.This is a 1W alternative view for the 1D idea here (above):
1W BTC shake-out until 2024-08-08, then soar for 2025-08 peak:
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NOTE: I corrected the next bull cycle in 2028 arrow up:1W Image of the entire forecast:
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1W Halving Cycle Chart:(click to play - idea):
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You may also like this longer-term 1W idea:1W shake-out ends 2024-08-08, peak 2025-08, bottom 2028-08-08, peak late-2032 or early-2033, then bottom in 2034.
(click to play)
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A Perfect Storm for Share PricesAugust 2024 marks a turning point. Short-term holders will face a steeper climb to reacquire shares as corporations enter an overconsumption phase. This phase begins to ensure on-time delivery for the holiday season.
Here's why:
Production Lead Time: Companies need to finalize purchases by August 8th to allow factories 30-60 days for production, plus another 30-60 days for ocean freight (potentially extended due to container shortages). This creates a window of up to 120 days leading up to December 12th.
Consumer Demand: Consumers will likely feel the strain 30 days after August 8th, as companies ramp up production to meet holiday demand. This means higher expenses in August, followed by a need to save in September to prepare for increased spending in October and November.
Investor Opportunity:
This extended lead time creates a window for investors. Share prices are likely to see a gradual increase throughout August-November, with a potential surge in December as the window for accumulation closes. This could lead to a significant price jump in January, setting the stage for a peak in 2025.
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1W 2024-08 Meltdown: A Phoenix Rises from the Ashes of Market Mayhem:(click to play)
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