[EW] All of the possible Scenarios for Bitcoin!

٢٨ نوفمبر ٢٠٢٢

#BTCUSDT #Daily #ElliottWave #Tommy
- Hello dear traders from all over the world! It’s Tommy. It’s been quite a while since I uploaded any contents on EN server. Due to countless issues in Crypto industry as well as the macroeconomic status concerning us about inflation and recession at the same time, BTC recently broke previous low around 17k making a new significant low around 15.4k. Now is the time for us to update our TA perspectives on BTC by deriving new supports, resistances, top, bottom and target prices. Let us look at some possible future scenarios in terms of Elliott Wave Theory.

<Scenario A>
- My first scenario indicates that the high(65k) born on April 2021 is the end of an impulsive cycle, corrective waves right after being the expanded flat. This then implies that the historical high at 69k is the end of flat wave B which exceeds previous wave 5 within an impulsive wave. We know that the flat corrective structure follows 3-3-5 zigzag rather than 5-3-5. Accordingly, the whole bearish wave structure was to be considered as red wave C composed of 5-3-5-3-5 zigzag.
- Scenario A1 says that the downward impulsive green wave 5 within red wave C is ongoing right now. In this case, the current structure is most likely the downward impulsive black wave 3 or upward corrective black wave 4. Ending diagonal green wave 5 is also to be on the list, especially if either the black upward wave 4 retraces wave 3 deeper than expected or black downward wave 3 has already ended around 15k. Some of the considerable supports and resistances in this scenario are 13.4k~14.1k, 10.8k~11.8k, and 17.7k~18.5k. This scenario becomes invalid if BTC breaks above 21.5k.

- Black wave B or C of upward corrective green wave 4 of red wave C is where we are right now according to scenario A2. This case expects BTC to break the downward channel above followed by decent bullish trend and then another strong rejection making a notable swing low after. Black wave 2 has also been regarded as some kind of flat structure. This very wave counting is off the list if BTC breaks above 33k, the end of green wave 1 after escaping the black parallel channel. If I were to be a bit more bullish, I can target the end of green wave 4 at 22.9k~23.7k and 27.4k~28.2k based on some technical components such as widening pattern(disjoint channel), 0.382 retracement level of downward cycle, and the horizontal volume profile, etc.


<Scenario B>
- Rather than expanded flat described as above, regular correction with 5-3-5 zigzag was chosen on scenario B. I believe this very wave counting is so far the most popular one among the Elliott Wave traders globally. This case refers that the end of impulsive cycle has been completed at the historical high at 69k which then would be the end of impulsive red wave 5. Therefore 5-3-5 zigzag was implied on this whole falling wave structure starting from 69k. Well, then we are currently on green wave 4 or 5 within red wave C.
- Similar to A1, B1 also regarded 25k high formed on August 2022 as the end of upward correction considering the falling wave structure right after as impulsive green wave 5. The chart below described the latest bearish waves as the black wave 3 within green wave 5 whether the 18k low is end of black wave 1 or running flat black wave B. The possibility of ending diagonal green wave 5 as well as the target prices (supports and resistances) are pretty much the same as A1’s. Retracing more than 21.5k that are thought to be the beginning of black wave 3, contradicts this scenario’s reliability.

- B2 is also quite the same as A2 but the degrees of waves are different. This scenario implies flat correction as well and black wave C can be targeted at 22.9k~23.7k (Running flat) and 27.4k~28.2k (Expanded flat). Frankly, considering the proportion, this counting might be a little off the track when second target is reached.


<Scenario C>
- From here, double three XWY corrective structure has been adapted on the falling wave that starts at the historical high. The dead cat bounce looking alike wave from 33k to 48k is then regarded as a wave failure, X. After the red wave X, the whole parts of the falling wave then fit into ABC 5-3-5, not the 12345 5-3-5-3-5 zigzag. I could say this scenario is far most the bullish comparing to A and B.
- Starting from C1, this case considers the horizontal volumes formed around 30k as green wave B dividing this very wave into ABC 5-3-5 zigzag. Weighting more on the flow that downward green wave C is starting from 25k high and splitting inner wave as 5-3-5-3-5, this scenario expects that the bears are almost finished and even though BTC shows another swing low in the future, it’s not going to be that bad. The worst specific case within this scenario would be making a final bottom at 13.4k~14.1k before bullish phase takes in place.

- C2 is just a tiny bit less bullish than C1, where downward ending diagonal green wave C with a huge black wave 1 is considered. It surely is too early to expect ending diagonal green wave 5 currently, but monitoring major highs and lows to keep track on the new significant trendlines that are to be appeared seems integral. The worst possible case would be BTC reaching the 1:1 projection level of green wave A and B, which is around 10.8k~11.8k.


<Scenario D>
- Last but not least, triple double three WXYXZ correction counting has been conducted in this scenario since those of some impatient traders are starting to address another wave failure X. This wave counting describes another wave X after WXY thus regarding another ABC 5-3-5 zigzag starting from 25k high.
- According to D1, 22.8k high is a starting point of a downward impulsive green wave C interpreted as 5-3-5-3-5. Honestly, assuming the downward black impulsive wave cycle started much later is not my number one scenario. Anyhow, the target price ranges of red wave Z are around 13.4k~14.1k and 10.8k~11.8k.

- Also considering WYXYZ correction, D2 implies that the green wave b within red wave C is taking place right now. Similarly, green wave B then can be regarded as either expanded or running flat which then can target 17.7k~18.5k and 22.9k~23.7k. Just like A2 and B2, this scenario also expects bulls to come in shorter term before another huge drop in longer term.


(Summary)
Supports: 13.4k~14.1k, 10.8k~11.8k. 7.4k~8.4k
Resistances: 17.7k~18.5k, 22.9k~23.7k, 27.4k~28.2k
Tops(Prices that bulls should break above): 22.8k, 25k , 29k