BTC/USDT: Between 94K and 100K, the Market Must Decide
Technical Context and Multi-Timeframe Trends
• Short-Term vs. Mid-Term Divergence
Several indicators (MA, Ichimoku, RSI, etc.) highlight a divergence between short-term timeframes (1H to 4H, which are mostly “Down”) and longer-term timeframes (12H, 1D, and even Weekly, which are in an “Up” trend). The market is currently in a state of hesitation; shorter timeframes show exhaustion, while the broader trend remains bullish.
• Key Support Zone: 94–95K USDT
On intraday charts (2H–4H), this level emerges as a critical support, confirmed by AVWAP (loVWAP) and liquidation clusters. This is the key pivot zone for any short-term buying strategy. A confirmed breakdown (especially on 4H/1D close) could open the door to 92K or even 90K USDT.
• Major Resistance: 98–100K USDT
Several technical elements make this area difficult to break:
• Daily moving averages (e.g., MA 50, Ichimoku Kijun).
• Recent highs tested without a clear breakout.
• New selling blocks identified (indicating resistance from short sellers).
• Longer-Term Perspective
If BTC climbs above 98–99K and confirms on a daily close, the probability of an extended move toward 105–110K increases, given the identified liquidation clusters and open interest positioned higher. On the other hand, a rejection below 98K would prolong the consolidation, increasing the risk of a deeper retracement below 94K.
Key Indicators Analysis
1. MTFTI (Multi-Timeframe Trend Indicator)
• Short-term (1H, 2H, 4H): “Down” or “Neutral.”
• Medium and long-term (12H, 1D, 1W): “Up.”
• Overall average (AVG): “Neutral” (reflecting an undecided market).
2. ISPD Div Pro
• In 2H/4H, Investor Satisfaction (white line) is near 0.15–0.16, indicating a potential rebound zone.
• In daily charts, the value rises to ~0.60, signaling a more neutral-to-bearish stance.
• Interpretation: Buyers may attempt an entry on lower timeframes if support holds, but higher timeframes do not yet confirm an extreme oversold condition.
3. HPI (Hybrid Pressure Index)
• On 4H, the index is at 89, approaching a potential local overbought level.
• On 1D, it drops to around 30–35, closer to an oversold zone.
• This contradiction suggests that short-term markets may pull back, while the daily timeframe could still support a later bullish move.
4. Koncorde Divergence [H32]
• Asymmetrical readings across timeframes.
• On 4H, the “Azul” zone dominates (often linked to institutional buying).
• On 1D, “Verde” (red) is stronger, indicating profit-taking.
• The lack of agreement between timeframes reflects the current “all-or-nothing” sentiment in the market.
5. Mason’s Line Indicator
• 2H/4H: Green Satisfaction > Blue SMA → potential bullish signal.
• 8H/1D: Green line below its moving average → suggests a slowdown or consolidation.
Trading Scenario & Risk Management
1. Bullish Scenario (Rebound):
• If the price holds above 94–95K, a rally toward 98–100K remains possible.
• A confirmed daily close above 98–99K would reinforce the case for an upward move toward 105–109K.
2. Bearish Scenario (Breakdown):
• A 4H/1D close below 94K signals caution.
• A potential wick to 92K or even 90K is possible due to the liquidation clusters.
• Below 89–90K, a deeper correction could unfold.
3. Trade Management:
• Aggressive traders may look for bounce signals at 94–95K (RSI divergences, ISPD at 0.15, etc.).
• Conservative traders should wait for a breakout above 98–99K for a safer momentum-driven entry.
Conclusion
The BTC/USDT market is in a high-risk zone, with major support at 94–95K USDT and strong resistance at 98–100K USDT. Technical indicators vary across timeframes, suggesting a possible short-term rebound, but without strong confirmation on daily timeframes. If support breaks, a drop to 92K–90K could materialize. Conversely, if 98–99K is reclaimed, BTC could extend gains toward 105–110K.
Key Technical Levels to Watch:
• Immediate Support: 94–95K
• Lower Support: 92K (potentially 90K)
• Resistances: 98–100K, then 105K+
Given the current market uncertainty, a clear signal on the 4H/Daily timeframe will be the key trigger for any decisive trading action.
• Short-Term vs. Mid-Term Divergence
Several indicators (MA, Ichimoku, RSI, etc.) highlight a divergence between short-term timeframes (1H to 4H, which are mostly “Down”) and longer-term timeframes (12H, 1D, and even Weekly, which are in an “Up” trend). The market is currently in a state of hesitation; shorter timeframes show exhaustion, while the broader trend remains bullish.
• Key Support Zone: 94–95K USDT
On intraday charts (2H–4H), this level emerges as a critical support, confirmed by AVWAP (loVWAP) and liquidation clusters. This is the key pivot zone for any short-term buying strategy. A confirmed breakdown (especially on 4H/1D close) could open the door to 92K or even 90K USDT.
• Major Resistance: 98–100K USDT
Several technical elements make this area difficult to break:
• Daily moving averages (e.g., MA 50, Ichimoku Kijun).
• Recent highs tested without a clear breakout.
• New selling blocks identified (indicating resistance from short sellers).
• Longer-Term Perspective
If BTC climbs above 98–99K and confirms on a daily close, the probability of an extended move toward 105–110K increases, given the identified liquidation clusters and open interest positioned higher. On the other hand, a rejection below 98K would prolong the consolidation, increasing the risk of a deeper retracement below 94K.
Key Indicators Analysis
1. MTFTI (Multi-Timeframe Trend Indicator)
• Short-term (1H, 2H, 4H): “Down” or “Neutral.”
• Medium and long-term (12H, 1D, 1W): “Up.”
• Overall average (AVG): “Neutral” (reflecting an undecided market).
2. ISPD Div Pro
• In 2H/4H, Investor Satisfaction (white line) is near 0.15–0.16, indicating a potential rebound zone.
• In daily charts, the value rises to ~0.60, signaling a more neutral-to-bearish stance.
• Interpretation: Buyers may attempt an entry on lower timeframes if support holds, but higher timeframes do not yet confirm an extreme oversold condition.
3. HPI (Hybrid Pressure Index)
• On 4H, the index is at 89, approaching a potential local overbought level.
• On 1D, it drops to around 30–35, closer to an oversold zone.
• This contradiction suggests that short-term markets may pull back, while the daily timeframe could still support a later bullish move.
4. Koncorde Divergence [H32]
• Asymmetrical readings across timeframes.
• On 4H, the “Azul” zone dominates (often linked to institutional buying).
• On 1D, “Verde” (red) is stronger, indicating profit-taking.
• The lack of agreement between timeframes reflects the current “all-or-nothing” sentiment in the market.
5. Mason’s Line Indicator
• 2H/4H: Green Satisfaction > Blue SMA → potential bullish signal.
• 8H/1D: Green line below its moving average → suggests a slowdown or consolidation.
Trading Scenario & Risk Management
1. Bullish Scenario (Rebound):
• If the price holds above 94–95K, a rally toward 98–100K remains possible.
• A confirmed daily close above 98–99K would reinforce the case for an upward move toward 105–109K.
2. Bearish Scenario (Breakdown):
• A 4H/1D close below 94K signals caution.
• A potential wick to 92K or even 90K is possible due to the liquidation clusters.
• Below 89–90K, a deeper correction could unfold.
3. Trade Management:
• Aggressive traders may look for bounce signals at 94–95K (RSI divergences, ISPD at 0.15, etc.).
• Conservative traders should wait for a breakout above 98–99K for a safer momentum-driven entry.
Conclusion
The BTC/USDT market is in a high-risk zone, with major support at 94–95K USDT and strong resistance at 98–100K USDT. Technical indicators vary across timeframes, suggesting a possible short-term rebound, but without strong confirmation on daily timeframes. If support breaks, a drop to 92K–90K could materialize. Conversely, if 98–99K is reclaimed, BTC could extend gains toward 105–110K.
Key Technical Levels to Watch:
• Immediate Support: 94–95K
• Lower Support: 92K (potentially 90K)
• Resistances: 98–100K, then 105K+
Given the current market uncertainty, a clear signal on the 4H/Daily timeframe will be the key trigger for any decisive trading action.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.