BTCUSDT going towards 4K

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As you can see, the same scenario is taking place for the 3th time. Each time BTCUSDT hits the downwards countertrendline (red), the price falls dramatically. In my opinion, the real break out to the downside toward 4k will be when it breaks the black trendline. Sometimes fake breakouts takes place in the charts, so be carefull,

Your opinions are welcome