Bitcoin - Like an Fat, Old Knight Fighting Bears With a Stick
Bitcoin may not be something that a lot of regulated markets traders pay attention to, and duly so. Digital currencies are heavily centralized in the hands of Chinese Communist Party affiliated entities, and have virtually no inherent, real, or long term value.
Yet their price activity often has a correlation to equities and indexes. After all, these do have futures markets and ETFs. Specifically, Bitcoin, for quite a while, would lead the SPX in moves.
Bitcoin, however, has been trading more and more like a boat anchor, and this is because this recent parabolic price impulse to $65,000 was ultimately a Bump and Run Reversal:
Hint: BARRs are ultimate topping patterns. Not short term tops.
Further evidence of this can be gleaned by BTC's incredibly impotent bear market rally top at $25,000, which I called back in July.
Bitcoin - An Unimpressive Climax
If you're still a "Bitcoin Maxi," read the room a little bit and put your faith elsewhere. If you want action, trade Ethereum, although it's also going to three digits again shortly, but for now, you still have plenty of chances to buy high so you can sell back low later:
Ethereum - The Hard Reality
What's dangerous for bears right now, though, is that this price action, lingering at this 2017 all-time high level and the psychological $20,000 level, gives one the impression that this is a rehash of the May and June bloodwash:
And yet the difference is today, the MMs have conveniently left a target 10-15% above, and have left their anchor to grow mold and rust for two weeks, yet simultaneously have never gunned down the sellers below $19,000.
A run to sub-$19,000 and a rip to $22,500 is enough space to produce cascading liquidations of everyone who's on 5x+ leverage on Bitmex, Binance, FTX and everywhere else.
And this is a critical thing to consider, because the major indexes are set up for a similar move:
SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear Saws
And so after everyone sees a big fat bounce on Bitcoin, they naturally, will buy, because they see the words "reversal" and the magic number $100,000 fills their eyes. After all, buying at $23,000 is pretty good if it's going to rip to $100,000 because NEW PARADIGM.
Yet, the reality for Bitcoin and the rest of the markets is simply that there's a lot of downside that needs to play out ahead before any further upside could be enjoyed.
For example, VIX hasn't done anything exciting for two years, and frankly, is prime to print a number like 72.
VIX - 9x8 = 72
After Bitcoin is finished lynching bears, bulls will be up next because the first number to be reached on the dump will be $15,000, and it will come fast.
And that dump won't stop in any meaningful way until $12,000.
And in the end when Bitcoin and equities finally bounce again during the grand finale that's arranged in the markets pre/onset-depression/recession, the upside number is called $35,000, not $60,000, and certainly never $100,000.
A Bitcoin, ultimately, is no more than a line entry on a Google Sheet that's hashed between a ton of CCP-run computers that do nothing but calculate one math problem in an attempt to win a block rewards lottery while burning a remarkable amount of electricity and producing absolutely no value whatsoever.
Gold and silver are something with both industrial and jewelry uses.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, well... you can show your mom how many you have on your phone, and then you can gloss over the subject when she asks you about why it's trading at $700 again 24 months from now.
Digital currencies are not something to have faith in. Never forget that Central Bank Digital Currencies are coming to replace these things.
You can play the rip, but buy yourself some physical spot metals and hold it in your hands like a human being again, because we will return to tradition in this lifetime, and people will be happy.
P.S.: Bitcoin Cash, of all the rags, is set up for a run over $300 this year.
But, it's not going to happen on this rip. So be careful.
Yet their price activity often has a correlation to equities and indexes. After all, these do have futures markets and ETFs. Specifically, Bitcoin, for quite a while, would lead the SPX in moves.
Bitcoin, however, has been trading more and more like a boat anchor, and this is because this recent parabolic price impulse to $65,000 was ultimately a Bump and Run Reversal:
Hint: BARRs are ultimate topping patterns. Not short term tops.
Further evidence of this can be gleaned by BTC's incredibly impotent bear market rally top at $25,000, which I called back in July.
Bitcoin - An Unimpressive Climax
If you're still a "Bitcoin Maxi," read the room a little bit and put your faith elsewhere. If you want action, trade Ethereum, although it's also going to three digits again shortly, but for now, you still have plenty of chances to buy high so you can sell back low later:
Ethereum - The Hard Reality
What's dangerous for bears right now, though, is that this price action, lingering at this 2017 all-time high level and the psychological $20,000 level, gives one the impression that this is a rehash of the May and June bloodwash:
And yet the difference is today, the MMs have conveniently left a target 10-15% above, and have left their anchor to grow mold and rust for two weeks, yet simultaneously have never gunned down the sellers below $19,000.
A run to sub-$19,000 and a rip to $22,500 is enough space to produce cascading liquidations of everyone who's on 5x+ leverage on Bitmex, Binance, FTX and everywhere else.
And this is a critical thing to consider, because the major indexes are set up for a similar move:
SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear Saws
And so after everyone sees a big fat bounce on Bitcoin, they naturally, will buy, because they see the words "reversal" and the magic number $100,000 fills their eyes. After all, buying at $23,000 is pretty good if it's going to rip to $100,000 because NEW PARADIGM.
Yet, the reality for Bitcoin and the rest of the markets is simply that there's a lot of downside that needs to play out ahead before any further upside could be enjoyed.
For example, VIX hasn't done anything exciting for two years, and frankly, is prime to print a number like 72.
VIX - 9x8 = 72
After Bitcoin is finished lynching bears, bulls will be up next because the first number to be reached on the dump will be $15,000, and it will come fast.
And that dump won't stop in any meaningful way until $12,000.
And in the end when Bitcoin and equities finally bounce again during the grand finale that's arranged in the markets pre/onset-depression/recession, the upside number is called $35,000, not $60,000, and certainly never $100,000.
A Bitcoin, ultimately, is no more than a line entry on a Google Sheet that's hashed between a ton of CCP-run computers that do nothing but calculate one math problem in an attempt to win a block rewards lottery while burning a remarkable amount of electricity and producing absolutely no value whatsoever.
Gold and silver are something with both industrial and jewelry uses.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, well... you can show your mom how many you have on your phone, and then you can gloss over the subject when she asks you about why it's trading at $700 again 24 months from now.
Digital currencies are not something to have faith in. Never forget that Central Bank Digital Currencies are coming to replace these things.
You can play the rip, but buy yourself some physical spot metals and hold it in your hands like a human being again, because we will return to tradition in this lifetime, and people will be happy.
P.S.: Bitcoin Cash, of all the rags, is set up for a run over $300 this year.
But, it's not going to happen on this rip. So be careful.
تعليق:
I don't think BTC has found a bottom. It left the June 4H pivot in tact by like $3 and isn't bouncing.
All that's below it is the $17,500 dump low.
All that's below it is the $17,500 dump low.
تعليق:
Pivot broken. Will it bounce, or will it retest $17,500?
Frankly, Ethereum hasn't dumped nearly low enough, so I believe we've still got a ways to go.
Frankly, Ethereum hasn't dumped nearly low enough, so I believe we've still got a ways to go.
تعليق:
Target achieved. But really, watch out, bulls.
I find it extremely unlikely that Bitcoin is going to moon without running the $17,500 mark.
Remember, when it made the low in the first place was on the weekend when the futures markets and the NYSE was closed, so there was no manipulation to that level in the futures contracts or the ETFs, which is where the real money is.
I find it extremely unlikely that Bitcoin is going to moon without running the $17,500 mark.
Remember, when it made the low in the first place was on the weekend when the futures markets and the NYSE was closed, so there was no manipulation to that level in the futures contracts or the ETFs, which is where the real money is.
تعليق:
What a market-wide blowout.
In my opinion, $17,500> is coming. That's a number that never printed on CME Futures.
Don't get long above double tops.
In my opinion, $17,500> is coming. That's a number that never printed on CME Futures.
Don't get long above double tops.
Careful if you go long, because, like, it may just not bounce.