BTC/USDT: Key Support Levels and Strategy for a Volatile Week
Support and Resistance Levels
Support Levels
1. 99,000 USDT
• Aligned with the daily 50-day moving average, serving as a key pivot zone.
• Clusters of buy orders observed around the 98–99k range.
2. 97,000 USDT
• Corresponds to the daily Auto AVWAP (low).
• Potential pullback zone if 99k is breached on a daily close.
3. 93,000–91,000 USDT
• Potential lower limit for the “C” wave (Elliott) in case of a stronger market drop.
Resistance Levels
1. 105,000–106,000 USDT
• Auto AVWAP high across multiple timeframes (daily, 12H).
• Significant clusters of short positions to be liquidated in the 105–107k range.
2. 108,000–110,000 USDT
• Recently tested upper zone and local top.
3. Above 110,000 USDT
• A breakout above this level would signal strong continuation towards new local highs.
Recommendations & Potential Strategy
1. Wait for Bottom Confirmation
• As long as 99k holds on a daily close, the current movement appears to be a pullback. A breakdown below 99k could open the door to 93–91k.
• On the 4-hour chart, watch for bullish RSI divergence (price forms a new low while RSI doesn’t) as a potential swing entry signal.
2. Risk Management This Week
• Wednesday: FOMC decision followed by the press conference
• Thursday & Friday: Quarterly earnings for Apple, Microsoft, etc., likely increasing volatility.
• Combined with ETF flows and speculative interest in AI developments, market moves could accelerate in either direction.
3. Main Scenario (Underlying Bullish Trend, Short/Mid-Term Correction)
• The MTFTI indicator shows an “Up” signal on the 4H timeframe, indicating that the broader trend remains bullish.
• Daily ISPD Div Pro approaches the 0.90–0.97 zone, suggesting potential market overheating and the need for consolidation.
Strategy
• Consider progressive buying (“buy the dip”) in the 99k–97k range, with a stop-loss below 91–93k to avoid exposure to further breakdowns.
• Initial take-profit targets could be set in the 105–107k zone (short liquidation zone), with potential extensions above 110k if the breakout is sustained.
• Monitor intraday volatility (2H/4H charts) to refine entries, such as spotting a short-term descending channel or RSI divergence.
General Conclusion
The overall mid-to-long-term outlook remains bullish for BTC, supported by institutional buying, MicroStrategy’s acquisitions, and significant progress in spot ETFs. However, short-term indicators (e.g., ISPD Div Pro, RSI, and overbought daily metrics) suggest a phase of consolidation or a final “sell-off” revisiting 99k or 97k before the next rally.
For swing traders, the optimal window seems to be in the 4H–12H timeframes, focusing on potential dips to 99–97k. A quick recovery above 103–105k could open opportunities to target the 107–110k range. Conversely, a break below 99k on a daily close would warrant patience for a potential test of 93–91k.
Summary :
• Primary trend: Still bullish.
• Current phase: Caution during ongoing correction.
• Key events: High volatility expected this week (FOMC and Big Tech earnings).
• Major supports: 99k, 97k, and 93–91k.
• Major resistances: 105–106k, 108–110k.
• Strategy: Use technical indicators across timeframes to align with the broader bullish outlook while remaining alert to short-term volatility.
Support Levels
1. 99,000 USDT
• Aligned with the daily 50-day moving average, serving as a key pivot zone.
• Clusters of buy orders observed around the 98–99k range.
2. 97,000 USDT
• Corresponds to the daily Auto AVWAP (low).
• Potential pullback zone if 99k is breached on a daily close.
3. 93,000–91,000 USDT
• Potential lower limit for the “C” wave (Elliott) in case of a stronger market drop.
Resistance Levels
1. 105,000–106,000 USDT
• Auto AVWAP high across multiple timeframes (daily, 12H).
• Significant clusters of short positions to be liquidated in the 105–107k range.
2. 108,000–110,000 USDT
• Recently tested upper zone and local top.
3. Above 110,000 USDT
• A breakout above this level would signal strong continuation towards new local highs.
Recommendations & Potential Strategy
1. Wait for Bottom Confirmation
• As long as 99k holds on a daily close, the current movement appears to be a pullback. A breakdown below 99k could open the door to 93–91k.
• On the 4-hour chart, watch for bullish RSI divergence (price forms a new low while RSI doesn’t) as a potential swing entry signal.
2. Risk Management This Week
• Wednesday: FOMC decision followed by the press conference
• Thursday & Friday: Quarterly earnings for Apple, Microsoft, etc., likely increasing volatility.
• Combined with ETF flows and speculative interest in AI developments, market moves could accelerate in either direction.
3. Main Scenario (Underlying Bullish Trend, Short/Mid-Term Correction)
• The MTFTI indicator shows an “Up” signal on the 4H timeframe, indicating that the broader trend remains bullish.
• Daily ISPD Div Pro approaches the 0.90–0.97 zone, suggesting potential market overheating and the need for consolidation.
Strategy
• Consider progressive buying (“buy the dip”) in the 99k–97k range, with a stop-loss below 91–93k to avoid exposure to further breakdowns.
• Initial take-profit targets could be set in the 105–107k zone (short liquidation zone), with potential extensions above 110k if the breakout is sustained.
• Monitor intraday volatility (2H/4H charts) to refine entries, such as spotting a short-term descending channel or RSI divergence.
General Conclusion
The overall mid-to-long-term outlook remains bullish for BTC, supported by institutional buying, MicroStrategy’s acquisitions, and significant progress in spot ETFs. However, short-term indicators (e.g., ISPD Div Pro, RSI, and overbought daily metrics) suggest a phase of consolidation or a final “sell-off” revisiting 99k or 97k before the next rally.
For swing traders, the optimal window seems to be in the 4H–12H timeframes, focusing on potential dips to 99–97k. A quick recovery above 103–105k could open opportunities to target the 107–110k range. Conversely, a break below 99k on a daily close would warrant patience for a potential test of 93–91k.
Summary :
• Primary trend: Still bullish.
• Current phase: Caution during ongoing correction.
• Key events: High volatility expected this week (FOMC and Big Tech earnings).
• Major supports: 99k, 97k, and 93–91k.
• Major resistances: 105–106k, 108–110k.
• Strategy: Use technical indicators across timeframes to align with the broader bullish outlook while remaining alert to short-term volatility.
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إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.