BTC High Probability Forecast Based on Real Math

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Bitcoin has repeatedly corrected ~mid-20% during the last 12–24 months. Using this empirical drawdown profile, a base-case correction of ~25% from a recent $126,000 high implies a **probable correction low near $94,500–$95,000.

This is a high probability forecast based on real math and stats, not science
fiction. No expanding triangles, Elliott Wave counts, Wolfe and Dragon patterns.
Bitcoin does not trade by the textbook. This is real world TA by a pro trader.

Tactical view: Expect a final flush toward ~$95k, then a reversal/bounce if market structure and liquidity conditions confirm.

Confidence: VERY HIGH —pattern consistency is notable, but crypto remains headline- and liquidity-sensitive. Use disciplined risk controls. 🧠

2) Recent Corrections (Past 12–24 Months)
# High → Low % Drawdown
1 $72,000 → $54,000 25%
2 $108,000 → $76,000 28%
3 $70,000 → $50,000 28%
4 $74,000 → $56,000 24%

Empirical mean drawdown:

(25+28+28+24)÷4 = 26.25%.
We’ll use 25% as the base-case assumption (conservative vs. the 26.25% mean). ✅

Projection for the Current Correction

Reference high: $126,000
Base-case (25%) low:
$126,000 × (1 − 0.25) = $94,500
Empirical-mean (26.25%) low:
$126,000 × (1 − 0.2625) = $92,925

Projected buy-zone: $92.9k – $95k, centered near $95k. 🎯

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let me know your thoughts on the above in the comments section 🔥🏧🚀

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Massive Bitcoin Whale Initiates Whopping $122,000,000 BTC Short
dailyhodl.com/2025/10/21/massive-bitcoin-whale-initiates-whopping-122000000-btc-short/

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No BTC won't reverse at 100k, because someone told you so on X or TikTok

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pro traders don't use MACD RSI and other useless garbage crossovers EW etc
forget about trading bitcoin by the book not going to work you will blow up your account

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my previous analysis below

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تم فتح الصفقة

break below 100k incoming

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it's not an alt coin season now.
it's not bitcoin season now.
it's bear season now.
figure it out already.

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BOOM. BTC BROKE BELOW 100 000 USD. TRADING NEAR 99 000 USD NOW.

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🏅 GOLD WEEKLY SUMMARY — SHORT THE RIPS

🪙 Trend: Uptrend intact long-term, but near-term tape turning distributive.
🏔️ Key Sell Zone: $4,220–$4,320 — prime area to short rips into supply.
🐻 Bear Liquidity: $4,350 (fresh liquidity) → expect rejection / reversal.
📉 Stretch Stop-Run: $4,380 — only hit on squeeze; short bias still valid below here.
📊 Downside Targets: $4,060 → $4,000 → $3,960.
🛡️ Major Support: $3,930–$3,940 bullish block (HTF buyers defend).
⛔ Bear Expansion: Break below $3,930 = opens $3,880–$3,850.
💱 Macro: Lower real yields + softer USD = supportive but not enough to chase highs.
🏦 Flows: Strong central-bank buying keeps floor firm but upside crowded.
🎯 Strategy: Fade all strength into $4,220–$4,350; take profits down into $4,060–$3,960.

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