CGC - Elliott Wave analysis - At a cross road
تم تحديثه
6/29
- what could have been the beginning of the 3rd wave starting in mid April failed to materialize as price action headed into a descending triangle. Therefore I had to re-position the count of Wave 1 to April 30
- With the re-positioned count, we are currently in Wave 2 nearing the end of another descending triangle. If this holds true, we expect price to move up in a thrust to Wave 3.
- Invalidation Point: $25.26 if Wave 2 retraces all of Wave 1, this count is no longer valid and we are likely in Wave (c) of a corrective cycle.
- Confirmation Point: $80.23+ price breaks above the length of Wave 1 such that Wave 3 is not the shortest wave.
- what could have been the beginning of the 3rd wave starting in mid April failed to materialize as price action headed into a descending triangle. Therefore I had to re-position the count of Wave 1 to April 30
- With the re-positioned count, we are currently in Wave 2 nearing the end of another descending triangle. If this holds true, we expect price to move up in a thrust to Wave 3.
- Invalidation Point: $25.26 if Wave 2 retraces all of Wave 1, this count is no longer valid and we are likely in Wave (c) of a corrective cycle.
- Confirmation Point: $80.23+ price breaks above the length of Wave 1 such that Wave 3 is not the shortest wave.
ملاحظة
7/4- News of Bruce Linton's termination announced on 7/3. Market reacts with a bullish engulfing candle.
- $38.24 - $39 price range represents multiple wave fib lines for W(III) W(b) and W1. Theoretically this is a level for support bounce into a reversal. We have seen this bounce multiple times on May 31 and Jun 24 and now Jul 3.
- I suspect that SP will continue a sideways trend within the bounds of the triangle until September.
- If we are in Wave 2, price action typically holds support at 0.5 ($39) or 0.382 ($35.76) Fib retracement of Wave 1 - grey fib lines. Price should break $80.23 to confirm the beginning of a Wave 3 if this is the case.
- Invalidation Point: $25.26 if Wave 2 retraces all of Wave 1, this count is no longer valid and we are likely in Wave (c) of a corrective cycle.
- Confirmation Point: $80.23+ price breaks above the length of Wave 1 such that Wave 3 is not the shortest wave.
ملاحظة
7/11 - SP broke out of triangle and below support of major Fib lines 0.382 W(w), 0.618W(III). Therefore it looks less likely that CGC is in a W(IV) triangle. If it were, we would likely be breaking out of the triangle into a W(V) impulse. CGC is now more likely in a W(IV) double three that is going to end in a 3-3-5 flat correction. Target near $25 or slightly below.Possibility #1: CGC is in W(IV) double 3 pattern.
Possibility #2: CGC is in a W(IV) triple 3 pattern.
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