COIN Responds to Higher Terminal Rate Expectations
Coinbase NASDAQ:COIN has been responding to higher terminal rate expectations, which have risen dramatically in the past month. In December 2022 and January 2023, the August Fed Funds futures contract previously showed a terminal rate of approximately 4.70%. And the consensus had adopted the view of significant rate cuts into year end 2023. Now, that has changed, and the FF futures contracts show that the market's view of rates is coming into alignment with the US Federal Reserve's messaging. The December 2023 contract has moved up approximately 22% since mid-December 2022.
Coinbase has been falling rapidly today, over -8.00% after PCE (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) came in hotter than expected. Retail sales for January 2023 also came in hotter than expected, and measures of the economy give the Fed room to keep rates higher for longer. Markets want to have their cake and eat it too—but that's not possible in an inflationary environment (sticky components especially). Stronger economic data coincides with more sticky inflation data for now, which gives the Fed incentive (and room) to keep rates higher for longer.
Coinbase is correcting at a minimum. One cannot rule out the possibility of a retest of lows or a new low altogether. But until critical support is reached (and breached), it's best to take this one level at a time.
1. Today, COIN breached the lows from earlier this week, specifically the low on Feb. 22, 2023, creating a bearish short-term structure.
2. COIN has been in a short-term downtrend since February 2, 2023 highs. That provides a good risk-reward entry spot for short-term traders. Caution is advised due to the volatility regularly seen by this stock. And the closer the entry is to the defined risk level, the smaller the risk is and the larger the position size can be without violating risk-management principles (but the more likely the stop is to be triggered as well).
3. A conservative target is $52.50-$54.13 in the shorter term, provided the downtrend line holds
4. A moderately aggressive target is $44.90 to 46.61. This target is not in effect until the conservative target is breached and held to the downside.
5. If COIN does not make significant progress in the next few days, the idea will be cancelled. Vanna and charm hedging flows as March OPEX approaches can start to boost markets if downward progress is not made quickly in the coming week.
6. The Bollinger Bands suggest a downside breakout could occur in the coming days or weeks.
Supplementary Chart A
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Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Coinbase has been falling rapidly today, over -8.00% after PCE (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) came in hotter than expected. Retail sales for January 2023 also came in hotter than expected, and measures of the economy give the Fed room to keep rates higher for longer. Markets want to have their cake and eat it too—but that's not possible in an inflationary environment (sticky components especially). Stronger economic data coincides with more sticky inflation data for now, which gives the Fed incentive (and room) to keep rates higher for longer.
Coinbase is correcting at a minimum. One cannot rule out the possibility of a retest of lows or a new low altogether. But until critical support is reached (and breached), it's best to take this one level at a time.
1. Today, COIN breached the lows from earlier this week, specifically the low on Feb. 22, 2023, creating a bearish short-term structure.
2. COIN has been in a short-term downtrend since February 2, 2023 highs. That provides a good risk-reward entry spot for short-term traders. Caution is advised due to the volatility regularly seen by this stock. And the closer the entry is to the defined risk level, the smaller the risk is and the larger the position size can be without violating risk-management principles (but the more likely the stop is to be triggered as well).
3. A conservative target is $52.50-$54.13 in the shorter term, provided the downtrend line holds
4. A moderately aggressive target is $44.90 to 46.61. This target is not in effect until the conservative target is breached and held to the downside.
5. If COIN does not make significant progress in the next few days, the idea will be cancelled. Vanna and charm hedging flows as March OPEX approaches can start to boost markets if downward progress is not made quickly in the coming week.
6. The Bollinger Bands suggest a downside breakout could occur in the coming days or weeks.
Supplementary Chart A
________________________________________
Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
تعليق:
This looks like price is ready to break lower to the mid 50s perhaps the low 50s as discussed above.
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SquishTrade
The macro makes me much more bearish overall on growth/tech and speculative names. Looking at the macro, one might reasonably conclude COIN and other speculative / growth names would make new lows. The Fed Funds futures contract for December 2023 has risen about 100 bps since the lows in December / January, and now shows expectations of a Fed Funds rate of about 5.30% in December '23.
However, macro alone has not been successful in timing downdrafts this year. The macro now (in terms of Fed Funds rate expecations) seems worse than it was around October 2022 lows, but markets are much higher relatively, and the selling is much more orderly. Though inflation data seems to be coming in hotter than expected and sticky, and Fed rate expectations are worse, US markets may not be ready for a major flush. This is why technicals are important to follow. Markets could remain choppy until later this year when recession hits and the Fed can't pivot as quickly as in the past given how tight labor markets still are.
Given that the technical context has been quite tricky, it's best to remain conservative and work from level to level in my view.
Have a good weekend.